This article is part of our Showdown/Single Game DFS Breakdown series.
Few games carry stakes as substantial as Monday night's game between the 7-3 Chargers and the 7-4 visiting Baltimore Ravens, so the game was likely to feature an urgent atmosphere even before noting the fact that the head coaches are the Harbaugh Brothers. Both teams are fairly healthy, and the showdown between Lamar Jackson and Justin Herbert could hold major sway over the MVP race, too. The over/under is set at 50.5 with the Ravens favored by 2.5 points.
QUARTERBACK
Few single-game slate fades are as scary as Lamar Jackson ($11000 DK, $15500 FD), who of course can post monster passing and rushing stats both, even in games where Derrick Henry also runs for big production. The case with Jackson on single-game slates is basically either he's a cashing pick or he had one of his worst games of the year, and sometimes Jackson is a cashing single-game pick even when he doesn't play particularly well. The Chargers defense is a definite challenge, so despite his unmatched upside Jackson probably isn't a slam-dunk cashing pick the way he would be facing a bottom-20 NFL defense.
Justin Herbert ($10400 DK, $14000 FD) can be a harrowing single-game slate fade himself, especially if he keeps running as much as he has the last four weeks. Herbert has 148 rushing yards and one touchdown over his last four games, which if it continues would do a lot to offset the passing-volume risk Herbert carries in the run-heavy Jim Harbaugh offense. The Ravens pass
Few games carry stakes as substantial as Monday night's game between the 7-3 Chargers and the 7-4 visiting Baltimore Ravens, so the game was likely to feature an urgent atmosphere even before noting the fact that the head coaches are the Harbaugh Brothers. Both teams are fairly healthy, and the showdown between Lamar Jackson and Justin Herbert could hold major sway over the MVP race, too. The over/under is set at 50.5 with the Ravens favored by 2.5 points.
QUARTERBACK
Few single-game slate fades are as scary as Lamar Jackson ($11000 DK, $15500 FD), who of course can post monster passing and rushing stats both, even in games where Derrick Henry also runs for big production. The case with Jackson on single-game slates is basically either he's a cashing pick or he had one of his worst games of the year, and sometimes Jackson is a cashing single-game pick even when he doesn't play particularly well. The Chargers defense is a definite challenge, so despite his unmatched upside Jackson probably isn't a slam-dunk cashing pick the way he would be facing a bottom-20 NFL defense.
Justin Herbert ($10400 DK, $14000 FD) can be a harrowing single-game slate fade himself, especially if he keeps running as much as he has the last four weeks. Herbert has 148 rushing yards and one touchdown over his last four games, which if it continues would do a lot to offset the passing-volume risk Herbert carries in the run-heavy Jim Harbaugh offense. The Ravens pass defense has been bad all year however and if Herbert somehow throws the ball a good amount then he should post numbers.
RUNNING BACK
Derrick Henry ($10800 DK, $16000 FD) is a uniquely compelling single-game slate option, though the price puts on a hurt on the wallet such that it isn't especially easy to include Henry in a lineup that also heavily targets the respective passing games. Of course, we've seen plenty of Ravens games where they are content to let Henry single-handedly do the damage, and if the Chargers can't score points fast enough the Ravens will doubtlessly look to feed Henry, which gets more dangerous for the defense the more volume Henry gets. It doesn't really seem like Keaton Mitchell ($2000 DK, $5500 FD) has his wheels back yet following last year's ACL tear, so Justice Hill ($3200 DK, $7000 FD) is still locked in as Henry's backup. The more the Ravens throw the ball, the more likely Hill is to get snaps.
J.K. Dobbins ($10000 DK, $13500 FD) and Gus Edwards ($2800 DK, $7500 FD) draw a tough matchup against a Baltimore run defense that has held up against almost every team its faced, so the former Ravens duo might need some Revenge Game magic to make up the difference. Dobbins especially is tough to doubt, but the return of Edwards presses the margins a little bit. With that said, Edwards has only 25 snaps the last two weeks compared to 83 for Dobbins.
WIDE RECEIVER + TIGHT END
Zay Flowers ($9600 DK, $12500 FD) isn't an easy fade with an over/under like this, and despite its good results this year the Chargers cornerback rotation is not heavy on talent. While the Chargers corners are definitely a threat to continue overachieving, Flowers has the talent advantage. Mark Andrews ($4600 DK, $9500 FD) and Rashod Bateman ($5400 DK, $8000 FD) are usually your second-leading candidates to catch passes for the Ravens, though Isaiah Likely ($4400 DK, $7500 FD) is capable of making noise in his own right. Nelson Agholor ($2400 DK, $6500 FD) and Diontae Johnson ($3000 DK, $10000 FD) continue to split a small number of snaps, making it tough to predict opportunity for them or fellow wideout Tylan Wallace. Wallace and tight end Charlie Kolar are pure punt plays with nothing assured.
Ladd McConkey ($9000 DK, $11500 FD) is the clear WR1 for the Chargers and if he can come through in this game it would be huge for the Chargers' chances of winning. McConkey figures to see a lot of top Baltimore corner Marlon Humphrey, but the Ravens pass defense probably doesn't deserve the benefit of the doubt at the moment. Quentin Johnston ($7400 DK, $10500 FD) and Joshua Palmer ($5200 DK, $8000 FD) are good candidates to step up, especially if McConkey is slowed by Humphrey. Tight end Will Dissly ($6400 DK, $7000 FD) has been excellent for the Chargers this year and it's becoming increasingly difficult to doubt him, including even in a game like this. Jalen Reagor and return man Derius Davis appear to be your punt plays over DJ Chark.
KICKER
Justin Tucker ($4800 DK, $9000 FD) is pretty much coasting on reputation at this point, as he has made just 16 of 22 field goal attempts, including just four of his last seven. If Tucker snaps back into form here then he could be quite busy, on the other hand, especially if the Ravens move the ball but fail to convert possessions into touchdowns.
Cameron Dicker ($5000 DK, $8500 FD) is likely the better kicker between himself and Tucker, to the point that it's almost always a disappointment when Dicker fails to come through for his fantasy investors. The specifics of how his opportunities might occur in this game aren't important – Dicker is a very good kicker and the Chargers tend to have a decent amount of work for him from week to week.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
The over/under is high in this game, but it's difficult to completely write off the defenses given the emphasis both teams place on defense. The Chargers ($3600 DK, $8500 FD) have a poor conventional projection, but defensive coordinator Jesse Minter is one of the league's best and if the game is surprisingly low scoring Minter will likely be a primary reason why.
The Ravens ($4000 DK, $9000 FD) carry the better conventional projection, but even they are less than truly convincing. The run defense has been great, but the Baltimore pass defense has struggled all year and isn't guaranteed to fix its problems before this game. Indeed, the over/under expects the Ravens pass defense to continue to struggle, and Herbert isn't turning the ball over much in 2024.
