This article is part of our Showdown/Single Game DFS Breakdown series.
Tampa Bay still isn't taken seriously as a playoff threat despite their 2-0 record, but that would change if they can make a competitive showing against the Eagles on Monday. The Eagles are the more convincing sort of 2-0, so it makes sense that they're favored by 5.0 points even as the road team. Unfortunately for Tampa they are a bit less healthy than the Eagles, who have everyone but a couple insignificant role players (Boston Scott, Quez Watkins). The Buccaneers are without standout first-round defensive tackle Calijah Kancey, and top corner Carlton Davis is questionable with a toe issue. The over/under is 45.0.
QUARTERBACK
Jalen Hurts ($11600 DK, $16000 FD) is exceedingly difficult to fade in a showdown contest, even as the most expensive player. He's liable to be a game's top passer and rusher both, and this matchup is no exception, In fact, the conventional Tampa Bay run defense is so good that it might deter the Eagles from bothering much at all, instead looking for ways to get Hurts going as a runner to loosen up the otherwise clogged run gaps. Hurts needs to play sharp as a passer – the Buccaneers secondary has some good players – but the Eagles have so many structural advantages.
Baker Mayfield ($8800 DK, $14000 FD) has a difficult task here. The Buccaneers have mostly used Mike Evans and Chris Godwin as boundary receivers, leaving a duo of fringe prospects (Deven Thompkins and Trey Palmer)
Tampa Bay still isn't taken seriously as a playoff threat despite their 2-0 record, but that would change if they can make a competitive showing against the Eagles on Monday. The Eagles are the more convincing sort of 2-0, so it makes sense that they're favored by 5.0 points even as the road team. Unfortunately for Tampa they are a bit less healthy than the Eagles, who have everyone but a couple insignificant role players (Boston Scott, Quez Watkins). The Buccaneers are without standout first-round defensive tackle Calijah Kancey, and top corner Carlton Davis is questionable with a toe issue. The over/under is 45.0.
QUARTERBACK
Jalen Hurts ($11600 DK, $16000 FD) is exceedingly difficult to fade in a showdown contest, even as the most expensive player. He's liable to be a game's top passer and rusher both, and this matchup is no exception, In fact, the conventional Tampa Bay run defense is so good that it might deter the Eagles from bothering much at all, instead looking for ways to get Hurts going as a runner to loosen up the otherwise clogged run gaps. Hurts needs to play sharp as a passer – the Buccaneers secondary has some good players – but the Eagles have so many structural advantages.
Baker Mayfield ($8800 DK, $14000 FD) has a difficult task here. The Buccaneers have mostly used Mike Evans and Chris Godwin as boundary receivers, leaving a duo of fringe prospects (Deven Thompkins and Trey Palmer) as the typical slot receiver. Mayfield stands no chance if the Buccaneers keep that up here. Darius Slay and James Bradberry are too effective at limiting Evans and Godwin outside – the Buccaneers need to make the slot an emphasis to get away from Slay and Bradberry.
RUNNING BACK
Rachaad White ($8400 DK, $11000 FD) gets a difficult matchup here against Philadelphia's outrageous defensive tackle rotation, but at least he has almost all of the Tampa Bay backfield to himself. Sean Tucker ($5000 DK, $6500 FD) played only 25 snaps to White's 104, while former third-round pick Ke'Shawn Vaughn ($200 DK, $6000 FD) has yet to play a snap in 2023. With that noted, the Buccaneers are clear underdogs here and the Eagles run defense could be an all-timer.
Kenneth Gainwell ($5600 DK, $10000 FD) is back after missing Week 2 with a rib issue. It's not clear how much work the Eagles intend to hand him given the superiority of D'Andre Swift ($8000 DK, $11500). It's possible that the Eagles barely used Swift in Week 1 for workload management reasons, but it more so seems like they're managing their backfield workloads on the basis of vibes, because on-field results clearly has not been the driving consideration. Similarly, Rashaad Penny ($1000 DK, $7000 FD) might not play even though it's a physical certainty that he would produce more yardage than Gainwell over a statistically-significant sample.
WIDE RECEIVER/TIGHT END
Chris Godwin ($7400 DK, $105000 FD) almost always played the slot in three-wide sets over his first six seasons, yet through two games in 2023 he has mostly been used outside. This probably has something to do with his modest target rate of 14 on 108 snaps. That's one target per 7.7 snaps, whereas in 2022 Godwin averaged a target every 5.87 snaps. The Buccaneers in any case need to get both Godwin and Mike Evans ($9200 DK, $14500 FD) into the slot to get away from Darius Slay and James Bradberry. Not just that, but the Eagles are without top slot corner Avonte Maddox. Deven Thompkins ($200 DK, $6500 FD) and Trey Palmer ($600 DK, $8000 FD) had been taking most of the slot snaps in the first two weeks, but they probably aren't good enough to capitalize on the easier matchup if they continue to see slot snaps. Cade Otton ($4200 DK, $7500 FD) is probably a better bet to make catches than Thompkins or Palmer, though the big play has yet to occur for Otton in the NFL. Ko Kieft ($200 DK, $5500 FD) and David Wells mostly block.
A.J. Brown ($10200 DK, $12000 FD) and DeVonta Smith ($10000 DK, $12500 FD) need no explanations. They're always dangerous and this game is no exception. One slight change to the Philadelphia wideout rotation is the absence of Quez Watkins, which could mean a few more snaps than usual for Olamide Zaccheaus ($200 DK, $7000 FD). If Watkins' absence creates more room it's more likely to be claimed by Dallas Goedert ($6400 DK, $9500 FD) than Zaccheaus. Jack Stoll ($200 DK, $5000 FD) also plays a high number of snaps, though primarily as a blocker.
KICKER
Though not used as frequently as some others, Jake Elliott ($4000 DK, $8500 FD) is likely one of the best kickers in the league and can almost always answer the call when an offense needs him to get three points. The main limitation here is that the Eagles are more in the business of scoring touchdowns. If the Eagles offense is a little off schedule, though, then their considerable firepower can channel through Elliott's leg. Such has been the case through the first two games, as Elliott has seven field goal attempts already after totaling just 23 attempts in 16 games last year.
Chase McLaughlin ($3800 DK, $9500 FD) is a very rangy kicker but one who bizarrely struggles from between 40 and 50 yards. McLaughlin made 14 of his last 17 kicks from beyond 50 – elite effectiveness – yet between 40 and 50 he made just 13 of 22 kicks in the same time span. You see it every so often – Brett Maher is another – but you trust McLaughlin more the farther away from the goal posts he gets.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
Jalen Hurts has had a handful of bad games in his career but not so many in the last two seasons. Though the Buccaneers defense is good, it's (A) not fully healthy and (B) less good as a defense than the Eagles are as an offense. With that said, any pick is permitted and the Buccaneers DST ($3200 DK, $9000 FD) can't be fully counted out.
The Eagles DST ($4600 DK, $9000 FD) carries a significantly better projection. Baker Mayfield is more likely to make mistakes than Hurts, and the Eagles defensive tackle rotation is probably an all-timer. The road detail is the only 'concern' here – with Darius Slay and James Bradberry the Eagles are well-prepared to counter Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.
