This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. New York Jets Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions for Monday Night Football Week 9
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Monday Night Football brings an inter-conference matchup between the Los Angeles Chargers (3-4) and the New York Jets (4-3). Let's dig into the betting market and discuss three wagers that could prove to be profitable.
Chargers vs. Jets Betting Odds for Monday Night Football
Chargers: Spread -3.5 (-108), -180 Moneyline
Jets: Spread +3.5 (-112), +150 Moneyline
Game Total: 40.0 points
This line opened at Jets -2.0 and moved to Chargers -1.5 on Oct. 24. It has since moved to Chargers -3.0 and crossed over to Chargers -3.5. The Chargers are coming off a Sunday night home win against the Bears 30-13 , while the Jets pulled off a miracle against the Giants winning 13-10.
The total has gone from 43.0, 42.0, 41.5, 41.0, 40.0. It has gone down 3 points in the last week, which is reflecting the Jets defense, bad offense and overall prime-time games going UNDER trend.
Totaling bets thus far, 66 percent of the money and 58 percent of the bets are on the Chargers. There is 67 percent of the money on the Chargers' money line, which is 83 percent of the bets. There is 63 percent of the money and 77 percent of the bets on the OVER.
Key injury situations to watch
Chargers:OUT Mike Williams, Joshua Palmer
QUESTIONABLE:LB Kenneth Murray, LB Eric Kendricks, DT Sebastian Joseph-Day
Jets: Aaron Rodgers (OUT); Allen Lazard (Questionable, limited practice Saturday)
OUT :LT Duane Brown, C Connor McGovern, RG Alijah Vera-Tucker
Chargers vs. Jets Betting Picks This Week
Chargers vs. Jets Best Bet: Tyler Conklin OVER 25.5 receiving yards (DraftKings -115) for 0.5 unit
With the news about Lazard and the O-line, Conklin's targets should receive a bump in this game. The Jets do not have many passing options and Conklin being the tight end means Zach Wilson can complete short passes to him. Conklin has had at least 24 yards receiving in 5 out of 7 games and the Chargers rank 30th against opposing tight ends in fantasy points allowed.
Chargers vs. Jets Best Bet: Lowest Scoring Quarter (1st) for 0.5 unit (DraftKings +220)
This article could leave some depressed as I am targeting low-scoring props for +EV and the first quarter being the lowest is a great play. The Jets average just 1.7 points in the first quarter, which is 31st in the league.
Chargers vs. Jets Best Bet: Jets 1st Drive Punt (DraftKings -145) for 1 unit
The Jets have punted on their first drive in six out of seven games (they fumbled against the Giants). Their offense cannot stretch the field and they have to rely on their defense to win games. Conservative play calling along with a lack of offensive weapons is enough to go ahead and lay the -145.
Chargers vs. Jets Best Bet: Chargers/Jets UNDER 40 for 1 unit (DraftKings -110)
There are a lot of trends pointing to the UNDER in this game with the Chargers going UNDER in their last five games. The UNDER has gone 5-1 in the last six Jets' games at home, 9-3 overall in their last 12, and 13-5 in their last 18.
Chargers vs. Jets Prediction
Chargers - #14 overall DVOA, #8 DVOA offense, #27 DVOA defense
Jets - #19 overall DVOA, #29 DVOA offense, #6 DVOA defense
If you just look at the records, you would think the wrong team is favored. The Jets are lucky to be 4-3, but they get a break in their schedule upcoming so this is a potential playoff team. The Chargers seem to mismanage each game they have a lead in and it has been a repeated pattern under Brandon Staley.
This is a make-or-break game for WR Quentin Johnston especially with Palmer ruled OUT. The offense will have to go through Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler, but there needs to be a third option to step up.
I do not have an opinion on the side in this game as I think the line is pretty spot on, but I would only be on the Jets at +3.5. I think there is value on the UNDER slightly, but I would look to play a lot of the quarterback props to the UNDER as I think this is a 20-17 type game either way. Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler, Garrett Wilson all should benefit from injuries in this game, though.
