This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
NFL Picks: Thanksgiving Night Football Best Bets for Vikings vs. Patriots
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Hello everyone and Happy Thanksgiving! It's me, your friendly Bears prognosticator, putting on my horned helmet and sheep-skinned vest to break down Thursday's late contest between another NFC North team, the Minnesota Vikings, taking on New England. By this time of the day, many of us will be working on our second food coma of the day, a pleasant state to be in while watching this one.
New England Patriots @ Minnesota Vikings Betting Odds for Week 12
Minnesota opened as a 3.5-point favorite on the look-ahead line and now sits at -2.5 at most places, but I do see some 3s out there, which could be big depending on your lean. There are interesting splits in the bet/money percentages as the Vikes have garnered 67% of the bets but only 40% of the money. That tells me the sharps are on New England, which explains the drop in spread. That also isn't extremely surprising if you've heard the "overrated" narrative on Minnesota. The total opened at 43 and is down to 42.5, another unsurprising move given last week's results for each team (more on that below). Minnesota is -144 on the moneyline while the Pats are +122.
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New England Patriots at Minnesota Vikings Betting Picks This Week
Overreaction is a theme that I found while evaluating this week and this game is an excellent example of it. Yes, when Minnesota loses, they lose in spectacular fashion, but the fact remains they are 8-2 and a very dangerous team. Historically, losing big to Dallas one week means there is value on that team the next week. Meanwhile, New England is being praised for their defensive prowess, and rightfully so, but the offense is putrid right now. The o-line is among the worst in the league and the Pats haven't scored an offensive TD in what feels like ages. Another factor here is Prime Time Kirk Cousins, who does anything but shine under the bright lights. While I do think there is some value on Minnesota at -2.5, my Best Bet is a play on the under in a game that will do its very best to put us to sleep.
New England Patriots 
@ Minnesota Vikings 
Best Bet: UNDER 43.5 (@ PointsBet)
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New England @ Minnesota Prediction
The Patriots can't score and Prime Time Kirk takes on the #1 DVOA defensive team. In the first quarter, I predict I will be going for my third plate of food and spiked apple cider while the score remains 0-0. The second quarter, I'll be looking for another slice of pumpkin pie and motivation to with extra whipped cream and motivation to continue watching this game while sarcastically celebrating FGs by each team and a 3-3 tie at half. After falling asleep at halftime, I wake up halfway through the third quarter to a points explosion....a Dalvin Cook TD offsets another Patriots FG as the Vikings take a 10-6 lead into the final quarter. While contemplating life and the limit of elasticity in stretchy pants, Minnesota stretches their lead to 17-6. A late, garbage time TD and failed 2-point conversion for New England makes it 17-12 final as Captain Kirk dances shirtless with a turkey leg in his mouth for all the world to see. Happy Thanksgiving, everyone!
