This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
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Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Commanders: Betting Odds, Picks and Predictions for the NFC Championship Game
A trip to the Super Bowl is on the line as the Eagles host the Commanders in the NFC Championship Game. Let's dive into the betting market and highlight some wagers to consider for this matchup.
Eagles vs. Commanders Betting Odds
Eagles: Spread -6 (-112), -278 Moneyline (DraftKings)
Commanders: Spread +6 (-108), +240 Moneyline (BetMGM)
Game Total: 47.5 points
The Commanders have no injuries of note among their offensive skill players. Jalen Hurts injured his left knee last week against the Rams, but the Eagles do not have him listed on their injury report heading into this game.
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Eagles vs. Commanders Betting Picks
Jayden Daniels over 10.5 rush attempts (-132 DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 unit
Daniels did plenty of damage with his legs during the regular season, rushing for 891 yards and six touchdowns. However, had at least 11 rushing attempts in a game only five times. When he faced the Eagles in Week 11, he finished with seven carries. He then had nine carries against them in Week 16.
This might seem like a high number for Daniels to go over, but consider that he had 13 carries in the Wild Card Round against the Buccaneers. He then had 16 carries against the Lions last week. When it has mattered the most, the Commanders have relied heavily on Daniels to provide production with his legs. As they try to make it to the Super Bowl, expect Daniels to run a lot.
Dallas Goedert to record 40+ receiving yards (-113 FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 unit
Injuries limited Goedert to just 10 games this season. He was healthy when these teams met in Week 11 and caught all five of his targets, for 61 yards. He was unavailable for their rematch in Week 16, one of four straight games that he missed. While limited to just 13 snaps in his Week 18 return against the Giants, he caught four of his five targets for 55 yards.
Goedert has been productive in the playoffs, posting at least four receptions and 47 receiving yards in both games. He has never averaged fewer than 10.0 yards per reception for a season in his career and he averaged 5.2 targets per game this year. Don't expect his role to decline in this important matchup.
Austin Ekeler to record 4+ receptions (+132 DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 unit
Entering this season, Ekeler had finished with at least 50 receptions in each of the last five seasons with the Chargers. Now a member of the Commanders, he is the top pass-catching option out of the backfield, while Brian Robinson Jr. handles the bulk of the rushing attempts. Injuries limited Ekeler to just 12 games, which contributed to him finishing with a modest 35 receptions.
Of Ekeler's 35 receptions this season, eight of them came in Week 11 against the Eagles. He was targeted nine times in that game and finished with 89 receiving yards. He was sidelined for their rematch in Week 16, but Robinson and fellow running back Jeremy McNichols combined for six receptions. There is too much juice that comes with taking Ekeler to go over his receptions prop of 2.5, so I prefer to take a chance at plus money that he finishes with at least four receptions.
Eagles vs. Commanders Prediction
This game being played in Philadelphia could be key. The Eagles are now 10-1 at home this season, counting the playoffs. Look for the Eagles to advance to the Super Bowl, but I'll lean towards the Commanders covering the spread. The Commanders only lost one game this season by more than eight points, and that loss came in Week 1. A third meeting between two teams that are very familiar with each other could lead to the game coming down to the final minutes.
