NFL DFS Picks: Yahoo Plays and Strategy for Divisional Round Sunday Baller

NFL DFS Picks: Yahoo Plays and Strategy for Divisional Round Sunday Baller

This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Football series.

The divisional round of the NFL playoffs continues Sunday with a two-game slate consisting of Rams-Eagles at 3:00 p.m. EST and Ravens-Bills at 6:30 p.m. Yahoo will continue to run NFL DFS contests throughout the postseason, and Sunday's biggest contest is the NFL $75K Baller, which pays out a guaranteed prize pool of $75,000 to the top 1,175 finishers, including $15,000 to the winner. You can submit up to 133 entries into this contest, which has a maximum total capacity of 4,450 entries but will still run if it doesn't fill, potentially providing you with enhanced odds of winning, also known as overlay. 

Playing in guaranteed prize pool (GPP) contests is about chasing upside, while lineups geared toward head-to-head, 50/50 or double-up formats should prioritize high floors. The players you want to target for these different contest types aren't mutually exclusive, but winning a GPP tournament usually requires finding a hidden gem or going against the grain in a spot or two, while building a solid base of the same chalk plays you would use anywhere. Against-the-grain plays typically consist of big-name players in tough matchups or boom-or-bust types with uncertain roles.

Keep in mind that Yahoo DFS contests use 0.5 PPR scoring rather than full PPR, which lowers the comparative value of wide receivers and running backs (in that order) while especially affecting high-volume pass-catchers. Your $75K Baller lineup will consist of one QB, two RBs, three WRs, one TE, one FLEX (RB/WR/TE) and one D/ST unit. Sunday's suggested plays include pricey RBs that should be worth paying up for in a slate teeming with talent at the position, as well as a reasonably affordable passing game stack. 

QUARTERBACK

Jalen Hurts, PHI vs. LAR ($31): Hurts showed some rust in his return from a concussion in the wild-card round against the Packers but still produced a respectable 16.84 fantasy points. In the 10 games preceding his injury, Hurts averaged 24.4 fantasy points and scored at least 21.86 fantasy points seven times, so he's likely to improve with another week to find his rhythm under his belt. He's by far the most affordable of Sunday's three dual-threat QBs but also the likeliest to score a TD with his legs, as Hurts had 14 rushing TDs this season and has 42 over the last three regular seasons, compared to Josh Allen's 12 and 34 and Lamar Jackson's four and 12 rushing TDs over those periods. Hurts also has the luxury of facing the weakest defense in action Sunday, as the Rams allowed 22.7 points per game in the regular season while each of the other three units allowed 21.6 or fewer.

Honorable Mentions:

Lamar Jackson, BAL at BUF ($38); Josh Allen, BUF vs. BAL ($37)

RUNNING BACK

Derrick Henry, BAL at BUF ($39): Henry and playoff football is a dangerous combination, as he rumbled for 186 yards and two TDs in the wild-card round against the Steelers, marking the fourth time in eight playoff games that he's rushed for at least 156 yards. The star RB had 199 yards and a TD on the ground, as well as a receiving score, against Buffalo in Week 4. The Bills generally stay in a two-deep shell, daring opponents to beat them on the ground while taking away downfield passing opportunities. That approach opens up not only rushing lanes but also receiving opportunities for RBs, as the Bills surrendered a league-high 750 receiving yards to RBs and tied for the second-most receiving TDs allowed to the position (six) this season. Justice Hill ($16) could get in on the fun as a pass catcher out of Baltimore's backfield, but Henry's worth locking in as the backbone of your fantasy lineup in a slate that's likely to feature more production on the ground than through the air.

Kyren Williams, LAR at PHI ($29): Williams is a touchdown machine, as he scored 16 total TDs in the 2024 regular season after finding the end zone 15 times in the 2023 campaign and tacked on a receiving score along with 92 scrimmage yards against the stout Minnesota front in the wild-card round. His three-down role should keep Williams involved in all situations regardless of game script, and the Eagles were more attackable on the ground than through the air this season. Philadelphia allowed the fewest passing yards per game in the regular season (174.2) but was only 10th-best in rushing yards given up per game (104.2), and Green Bay's only TD against the Eagles in the wild-card round came on a Josh Jacobs run. 

Honorable Mentions:

Saquon Barkley, PHI vs. LAR ($40); James Cook, BUF vs. BAL ($32)

WIDE RECEIVER

DeVonta Smith, PHI vs. LAR ($28): A.J. Brown seems clearly hampered by a knee injury, as he was held to one catch last week, so Smith should work as Hurts' top target against a Rams secondary that tied for the fourth-most TDs allowed to WRs (20) in the regular season. Smith led the Eagles with 55 receiving yards in the wild-card round, and he has 303 receiving yards over his last three playoff games. He was also hot to close out the regular season, recording 280 yards and three TDs in Weeks 16 through 18.

Khalil Shakir, BUF vs. BAL ($22): Shakir has been Josh Allen's favorite target all season, leading the Bills in targets (100), catches (76) and receiving yards (821) in the regular season before catching all six of his targets for 61 yards in Buffalo's run-heavy wild-card round win over the Broncos. The Bills will likely rely more on Allen's arm -- and by extension, Shakir's pass-catching prowess -- against a Ravens defense that allowed the fewest rushing and second-most passing yards in the regular season. Baltimore's secondary was much better in the second half of the season, but this defense is still much more attackable through the air than on the ground.

Rashod Bateman, BAL at BUF ($20): Bateman's a strong play regardless of fellow WR Zay Flowers' status, though it certainly seems that Flowers (knee) is trending toward a second consecutive absence. Bateman opened the scoring in the wild-card round win over the Steelers, continuing a late-season surge in which the talented wideout has compiled six TDs in a six-game stretch. Buffalo ranked near the middle of the pack at defending WRs during the regular season, but if the Bills are forced to commit more resources than usual to defending the run, that could open up more opportunities for Bateman to take the top off the defense.

Honorable Mentions:

Puka Nacua, LAR at PHI ($35); Cooper Kupp, LAR at PHI ($19)

TIGHT END

Dallas Goedert, PHI vs. LAR ($17): Goedert continued his quietly strong season with 47 yards and a TD in the wild-card round. He's averaging 54.3 receiving yards in the 10 games in which he has played at least four snaps this season, trailing only the season averages of George Kittle, Trey McBride and Brock Bowers among TEs. Goedert should be a key cog in the game plan against a Rams defense that surrendered the fourth-most yards to TEs (1,101) in the regular season before allowing a team-high 64 receiving yards and a TD to Minnesota's T.J. Hockenson in the wild-card round. Don't expect the illness that kept Goedert off the practice field Thursday to be a factor come Sunday.

Honorable Mentions:

Mark Andrews, BAL at BUF ($21); Dalton Kincaid, BUF vs. BAL ($12)

DEFENSE

Philadelphia Eagles vs. LAR ($17): Three of the offenses in action Sunday ranked among the top seven in points during the regular season and averaged at least 27.2 points per game. Then there's the Rams, who ranked 20th with 21.6 points per game -- a number that dipped to 19.3 PPG on the road. All four of the teams set to take the field Sunday excelled in limiting giveaways, with 15 or fewer turnovers this season, but only the Bills (32) and Eagles (26) forced turnovers consistently, while the Rams (20) and Ravens (17) didn't produce many takeaways. Philadelphia also had the NFL's second-best scoring defense (17.8 PPG allowed) in the regular season, then proceeded to limit the Packers to 10 points while forcing four turnovers in the wild-card round, so this unit should be worth paying up for given its combination of ability and matchup.

Honorable Mentions:

Los Angeles Rams at PHI ($12); Buffalo Bills vs. BAL ($10)

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Sasha Yodashkin plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: Youngsash, DraftKings: Yashdogg,Yahoo: Sasha, Fanball: Yashdogg.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Sasha Yodashkin
Sasha has been contributing NFL, NHL, NBA, MLB and Tennis content to RotoWire since 2015, with an emphasis on DFS. He is a huge New York sports fan who has been playing fantasy sports since middle school.
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