NFL DFS Picks: Yahoo Plays and Strategy for Super Bowl BIG GAME Baller

NFL DFS Picks: Yahoo Plays and Strategy for Super Bowl BIG GAME Baller

This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Football series.

The Chiefs and Eagles will meet in Super Bowl LVII at 6:30 p.m. EST on Sunday. Yahoo has  running NFL DFS contests throughout the regular season and playoffs. Sunday's single-game slate will mark the final opportunity to participate in NFL DFS this season.

Sunday's biggest NFL DFS contest on Yahoo is the NFL $100K BIG GAME Baller. This contest pays out a guaranteed prize pool of $100,000 to the top 1,408 entries, including a grand prize of $20,000 to first place. Each entry is $15, with a maximum of 7,845 total entries and 150 per participant. The BIG GAME Baller will still run if it doesn't fill, potentially providing you with enhanced odds of winning, also known as overlay. 

Playing in guaranteed prize pool (GPP) contests is about chasing upside, while lineups geared towards head-to-head, 50/50 or double-up formats should prioritize high floors. The players you want to target for these different contest types aren't mutually exclusive, but winning a GPP tournament usually requires finding a hidden gem or going against the grain in a spot or two, while building a solid base of the same chalk plays you would use anywhere. Against-the-grain plays typically consist of big-name players in tough matchups or boom-or-bust types with uncertain roles.

Keep in mind that Yahoo DFS contests use 0.5 PPR scoring rather than full PPR, which lowers the comparative value of wide receivers and running backs (in that order) while especially affecting high-volume pass-catchers. Your NFL $100K BIG GAME Baller lineup for the Super Bowl will consist of one SUPERSTAR spot that has the same cap hit but scores with a 1.5X multiplier, as well as four FLEX spots. The recommendations below will be broken down by position, but you can use QBs, RBs, WRs, TEs or D/ST units with no minimum or maximum requirements per position.

QUARTERBACK

Jalen Hurts ($41) will get plenty of SUPERSTAR spot consideration and deserves a spot in most lineups despite his gaudy $41 valuation. The dual-threat quarterback has rushed for a touchdown in both of Philadelphia's playoff games, giving him a single-season NFL quarterback record 15 rushing touchdowns in 17 games between the regular season and playoffs. He has added a 24:6 TD:INT heading into a matchup with a Chiefs defense that allowed a league-high 33 passing touchdowns in the regular season. The extra week off between the NFC championship and Super Bowl should put to bed any lingering concerns about the shoulder injury that sidelined Hurts for a couple games late in the regular season.

If you like the Chiefs in this game, Patrick Mahomes ($37) makes sense as your SUPERSTAR play. Even if his high ankle sprain limits Mahomes' effectiveness as as a runner, we're still talking about the league's most productive passer, as he led the NFL in both yards (5,250) and touchdowns (41) through the air in the regular season. Mahomes is a willing scrambler when healthy enough to do so, as he's scored five rushing touchdowns in 13 career postseason starts. It will have been two weeks since Mahomes gutted out a 23-20 AFC championship win over the Bengals, so his ankle will be healthier, but he may not be 100 percent healthy yet.

RUNNING BACK

Both teams employ multiple running backs, but Kansas City's rotation is closer to a committee while the Eagles usually ride Miles Sanders ($24) until they get some breathing room. Sanders has been terrific this postseason while running behind arguably the best offensive line in the league, as he had 90 yards against the Giants in the wild-card round before finding the end zone twice in the NFC championship against the 49ers. Kenneth Gainwell ($18) has 26 carries to Sanders' 28 this postseason, but most of Gainwell's looks have come after the Eagles have built up big leads, as Philadelphia's outscored the opposition 69-14. Boston Scott ($12) has also seen mop-up duty and found the end zone in both playoff games. While the game is in the balance, Sanders should get most of the touches against a Chiefs defense that allowed only six rushing touchdowns to running backs in the regular season — tied for second fewest in the NFL.

Isiah Pacheco ($17) has been Kansas City's top option on the ground for a while now. Over the last nine games, Pacheco has averaged 14 carries and 70.3 rushing yards while finding the end zone four times. Jerick McKinnon ($16) has been the Chiefs' preferred option in passing situations, and he looked nearly unstoppable in the red zone late in the regular season, racking up eight receiving touchdowns and another on the ground over the last six regular-season games. McKinnon has yet to find the end zone in the playoffs, but both Chiefs running backs are appealing value plays at their modest valuations against an Eagles defense that allowed the fewest passing yards in the regular season but ranked closer to the middle against the run.

WIDE RECEIVER

The Eagles have a clear advantage at wide receiver thanks to the dynamic duo of A.J. Brown ($28) and DeVonta Smith ($26). Both will be looking to shine against a Chiefs secondary that tied for the second-most touchdowns allowed to wide receivers in the regular season with 20. Brown scored 11 touchdowns and had at least 95 yards eight times in the regular season, but he's been held to 50 yards across two playoff games. Smith's three-target game against the 49ers snapped a streak of 10 consecutive games with at least eight targets, and Smith had topped 60 yards in seven consecutive games prior to notching only 36 in the NFC championship. With this game expected to be more competitive, both star wide receivers figure to see more action than they did against San Francisco. There's a substantial drop-off from the top two wideouts to No. 3 receiver Quez Watkins ($11).

Mahomes can get all his weapons involved, which allows the Chiefs to get by despite an underwhelming group of wide receivers. JuJu Smith-Schuster ($19), Mecole Hardman ($15) and Kadarius Toney ($13) got hurt in the AFC championship, paving the way for Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($19) to produce his best game in a Chiefs uniform, with six catches for 116 yards and a touchdown on eight targets. Hardman (pelvis) was placed on injured reserve, but both Smith-Schuster (knee) and Toney (ankle/hamstring) are expected to suit up. Should their injuries flare up again, the Chiefs have Skyy Moore ($13) and Justin Watson ($11) on hand for depth.

TIGHT END

If you don't go with a quarterback in your SUPERSTAR spot, the obvious top alternative is Travis Kelce ($33). Kelce's 1,467 receiving yards and 15 touchdowns in the postseason are both second all-time behind Jerry Rice. In eight games in the last three postseasons, Kelce has 835 yards and nine touchdowns. Over that span, the star Chiefs tight end has only one game with fewer than 95 yards and one game without a touchdown.

Dallas Goedert ($19) is the clear No. 3 option in Philadelphia's passing game behind Brown and Smith. After catching 55 of 69 targets for 702 yards and three touchdowns in just 12 regular-season games, Goedert has caught 10 of 11 targets for 81 yards and a touchdown across two postseason games. The Eagles (801) and Chiefs (792) allowed nearly identical yardage totals to tight ends in the regular season, but Kansas City gave up nine touchdowns to the position while the Eagles allowed only three.

DEFENSE

Kickers aren't available for selection in Yahoo DFS contests, but defenses are. The Philadelphia Eagles ($13) led the league with 70 sacks in the regular season and have posted at least nine fantasy points in seven of their last eight games, so there's some appeal as a value play. Deploying this unit would be a risky move against the Mahomes-led Chiefs offense, though. The Kansas City Chiefs ($14) have quietly posted 47 fantasy points in the last five games while allowing only 17.4 PPG during that stretch, but the Eagles offense has been a tough matchup as well. Including the playoffs, the Kansas City and Philadelphia offenses are tied for the league lead with 28.7 PPG.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Sasha Yodashkin plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: Youngsash, DraftKings: Yashdogg,Yahoo: Sasha, Fanball: Yashdogg.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Sasha Yodashkin
Sasha has been contributing NFL, NHL, NBA, MLB and Tennis content to RotoWire since 2015, with an emphasis on DFS. He is a huge New York sports fan who has been playing fantasy sports since middle school.
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