NFL Free Agency: Assessing Potential Cap Casualties

NFL Free Agency: Assessing Potential Cap Casualties

This article is part of our NFL Free Agency series.

The NFL offseason is here, and Mario Puig's free-agency tracker is up and running. Not much has happened so far, but that should change soon with the franchise-tag window opening Tuesday and some of the impending free agents inevitably being tagged or re-signed before the start of the so-called 'legal tampering period' March 11.

We'll also see some players released for cap purposes in the coming days/weeks, with others likely to follow later this offseason. What I want to do below is identify players that technically are under contract for 2024 but might nonetheless end up free agents at some point during the offseason. 

I'll group the players into three categories. The first consists of guys that are all but certain to either be released or accept pay cuts. The second group are borderline cases; guys that some would say are overpaid and others would call fairly compensated. And then the third group is guys that are probably worth their salaries but might nonetheless be cut/traded if their teams struggle to otherwise clear out cap space or have unexpected priorities.

I'll also discuss why some of this stuff matters for fantasy and how it may impact the teammates left behind (because getting an early jump on what will/might happen this offseason is beneficial for anyone drafting best ball teams or making dynasty trades). Note that we're only looking at QBs, RBs, WRs and TEs here, not defensive players or offensive lineman.

High Probability of Release / Pay Cut

Quarterbacks

  • QB

The NFL offseason is here, and Mario Puig's free-agency tracker is up and running. Not much has happened so far, but that should change soon with the franchise-tag window opening Tuesday and some of the impending free agents inevitably being tagged or re-signed before the start of the so-called 'legal tampering period' March 11.

We'll also see some players released for cap purposes in the coming days/weeks, with others likely to follow later this offseason. What I want to do below is identify players that technically are under contract for 2024 but might nonetheless end up free agents at some point during the offseason. 

I'll group the players into three categories. The first consists of guys that are all but certain to either be released or accept pay cuts. The second group are borderline cases; guys that some would say are overpaid and others would call fairly compensated. And then the third group is guys that are probably worth their salaries but might nonetheless be cut/traded if their teams struggle to otherwise clear out cap space or have unexpected priorities.

I'll also discuss why some of this stuff matters for fantasy and how it may impact the teammates left behind (because getting an early jump on what will/might happen this offseason is beneficial for anyone drafting best ball teams or making dynasty trades). Note that we're only looking at QBs, RBs, WRs and TEs here, not defensive players or offensive lineman.

High Probability of Release / Pay Cut

Quarterbacks

Jimmy G will be suspended for the first two games of 2024 after violating the NFL's PED policy, potentially voiding the guarantee on his $11.25 million base salary. The Raiders likely planned to release him anyway, as he has a non-guaranteed roster bonus for the same amount ($11.25 million) due March 17. The team's cap situation theoretically allows for making a run at a veteran QB, but my guess is that the Raiders end up starting Aidan O'Connell and/or a rookie.

       

Heinicke has one season remaining on his contract, with non-guaranteed compensation in the form of a $5 million base salary, $1.32 million roster bonus and $680,000 in per-game roster bonuses. In other words, the Falcons can clear about $7 million in cap space if they trade or release Heinicke before March 18 when the $1.32 million bonus is due. The contract is actually reasonable for a high-end backup, but the Falcons figure to pursue a better starter and then put Desmond Ridder in the No. 2 role.

      

Winston technically is under contract through 2024, but with an odd provision that pays him $107.255 million if he's on the roster March 16. He'll either be released before that date or renegotiate a new contract with the Saints. It's even possible that they release him and then re-sign him. But something has to happen before March 16. And if he does come back to New Orleans, it'll be as the backup to Derek Carr, who the Saints essentially are married to for at least one more year (and possibly two).

      

Running Backs

Perine ended up being the third guy in Denver's backfield rotation for much of 2023, despite signing a two-year, $7.5 million contract. The Broncos can clear $3 million in cap space by releasing him this offseason and moving forward with Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin on rookie contracts. 

     

Remember this guy? Well, the Bills can clear $4.66 million in cap space if they release him ahead of the second season of a two-year extension. Hines didn't play much on offense after the Bills traded for him in 2022, and he then tore an ACL in a jet-ski accident last summer. It would be great to see him get back on the field, but there's zero chance it happens under the current terms of his contract.

       

Wide Receivers       

Williams is rehabbing an ACL tear and scheduled for $20 million in non-guaranteed compensation in the final year of his contract. Cutting him would probably make sense even if the Chargers weren't in need of cap space. An extension wouldn't be totally shocking, but I'm certainly not betting on it. New coach Jim Harbaugh figures to run the ball more than his predecessors in Los Angeles, and the Chargers have 6-foot-1 Joshua Palmer and 6-foot-3 Quentin Johnston on rookie contracts. The biggest question (see below) is what happens with Keenan Allen.

            

From the RW player note I wrote earlier this week:

The last time we saw Gallup in uniform he caught six passes for 103 yards in a wild-card loss to the Packers. It was his first 100-yard game since Nov. 2021, six weeks before he suffered a career-altering ACL tear. Gallup has three seasons remaining on the five-year, $57.5 million extension he signed a few months after suffering the injury, but none of the remaining money is guaranteed. The Cowboys can free up $9.5 million in 2024 cap space if Gallup is designated as a post-June 1 release, while cutting him without the designation would free up just $800,000 but keep him off the books for 2025. He'll probably need to accept a pay cut/renegotiation if he wants to stay in Dallas

        

The Texans can add $5 million in cap space by releasing Woods, who might consider taking a pay cut to stick around and compete for the No. 3 receiver job behind Nico Collins and Tank Dell (leg). Woods will turn 32 in April, and I'm not so sure he'd be the favorite in a job battle against John Metchie, Xavier Hutchinson and whoever else the Texans bring in.

            

The Bills can clear around $4 million in much-needed cap space if they release Harty, whose two-year, $9.5 million contract was regrettable by the end of September. He returned a punt for a TD but drew only 21 targets in 16 games.

           

The Raiders can add nearly $12 million in cap space if Renfrow is released with a post-June 1 designation. It's a no-brainer, and Renfrow likely will prefer a fresh start rather than accepting a pay cut to stick around (if the team even bothers to offer it). The Raiders have Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers and Tre Tucker under contract for 2024, though Adams (and maybe Meyers) figures to be the subject of trade rumors this spring. The Raiders offense is incredibly difficult to read at this point in the offseason, with RB Josh Jacobs scheduled for free agency and the QB situation up in the air

            

Thomas, like Winston, has a strange contract that ensures he'll either be released or renegotiated by mid-March. I think the Saints might actually move on this time, after opting to make things work with Thomas on multiple occasions in the past. He missed the final two months of the season with a knee injury, but there hasn't been any report of surgery. Thomas looked competent, though not especially explosive, in the first half of the season. He'll turn 31 on March 3 and could make sense as a No. 3 receiver for a likely contender (perhaps as a cheap replacement for Tyler Boyd in Cincinnati?).

          

Patrick has no chance of playing under the current terms of his three-year, $30 million contract after suffering season-ending injuries during training camp in the first two seasons of the deal. He might stick around in Denver via a drastic pay cut, however, rather than relocating to finish up his rehab from an Achilles' tear. We shouldn't expect much from him at this point, even with Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton potentially exiting Denver this offseason. Patrick hasn't played in three years and will turn 31 midway through the 2024 campaign.

       

Robinson technically has one year remaining on his contract but was always a long shot to actually see the money. That's especially true after he somehow managed to produce just 280 receiving yards and no TDs despite starting all 17 games in 2017 and playing 72 percent of Pittsburgh's snaps on offense. If Robinson does stick around, it'll be with a renegotiated contract that puts him much closer to the veteran's minimum than to his currently scheduled salary of $10 million. Even in that scenario, he's unlikely to be assured of a top-three role under new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith.

    

Gage also has a non-guaranteed $8.5 million base salary for the third and final year of his contract, though the use of void years means the Bucs will free up only $6.5 million in 2024 cap space if he's released. The 28-year-old suffered a torn patellar tendon in August, putting his NFL future in jeopardy. Gage might consider renegotiating his contract to stay in Tampa Bay and continue his rehab with the Buccaneers.

          

The Chiefs may release Valdes-Scantling this offseason, a move that would clear up $12 million in cap space, according to Nate Taylor of The Athletic.

It's a no-brainer move barring a renegotiated contract, despite Valdes-Scantling's contributions in the playoffs the past two seasons. He's won two rings since signing a three-year, $30 million contract with the Chiefs in March 2022, but he caught only 21 passes for 315 yards and one touchdown in 16 games during the 2023 regular season. Valdes-Scantling will turn 30 during the 2024 season and has never reached 700 yards despite taking nearly all of his NFL snaps with either Patrick Mahomes or Aaron Rodgers under center.

               

Tight Ends

TE C.J. Uzomah    

TE Mo Alie-Cox

TE Ian Thomas

This is a who-cares trio in fantasy terms, though all were semi-relevant at around the same time three years ago. They've since fallen back to No. 2 roles with minimal targets, and now they all figure to be released unless they accept pay cuts.

Medium Probability of Release / Pay Cut

Quarterbacks

The Dolphins can clear $3.5 million in cap space if they release White rather than keeping him for the second season of a two-year, $8 million contract. It's not that much money for a backup QB, but Miami also has Skylar Thompson... and a tough cap situation.

       

Keenum has a $1 million guarantee for his $2.75 million base salary in the second and final season of his contract. Once per-game roster bonuses are included, Houston would clear $2 million in cap space by releasing him. That's not much for a backup QB, but it's a lot for a No. 3. (The Texans have Davis Mills under contract for another year.)

                

Running Backs

Kamara has two seasons but no guarantees remaining on his contract, with the 2024 compensation consisting of a $10.2 million base salary, $1 million roster bonus, $500,000 in per-game roster bonuses and a $100,000 workout bonus. The $1 million bonus is due March 13, but the Saints don't get any cap relief for the present year if they trade/release Kamara before then (the benefit would be completely removing him from the books for 2025 and beyond). 

Most teams would care about the multi-year outlook more than the current year's cap, but the Saints are in a tough situation where they need to make a bunch of moves just to become cap compliant... and the easiest way to do that is by renegotiating contracts rather than cutting guys, i.e., kicking the can down the road another year. All possibilities are in play here, including a trade, a renegotiation or a release with a post-June 1 designation. 

The likely fantasy beneficiaries from a Kamara departure would be 2023 third-round pick Kendre Miller and 2023 free-agent signing Jamaal Williams. Neither did much this past season, but note that Williams has a full guarantee on his $3.15 million base salary for 2024, i.e., he might be traded but almost certainly won't be released (the only benefit would be avoiding a $700,000 roster bonus, and even then it would actually hurt the Saints' 2024 cap sheet more than help).

     

Mixon "renegotiated" last offseason, essentially accepting a pay cut in exchange for some incentives and modest guarantees. He now has one year remaining on his contract, with $5.75 million in non-guaranteed compensation. That seems pretty fair, but fair doesn't necessarily matter. Ezekiel Elliott, for example, could probably do what Mixon did the past few years, and at a lower price.

Most of Mixon's 2024 compensation comes in the form of a $3 million roster bonus due March 18, so if anything is going to happen here it'll almost certainly happen soon. Early ADP results suggest a lot of fantasy drafters expect Chase Brown to take over as RB1 in Cincinnati; maybe, but I think the 2023 fifth-round pick will have to compete with a rookie and/or veteran even if Mixon moves on.

     

Wilson has one year remaining on his contract, with $3 million in non-guaranteed compensation ($2.645 million base salary, $255,000 in per-game roster bonuses, $100,000 workout bonus). It's no secret Mike McDaniel likes him, and it's less clear if Wilson would be valued elsewhere. He might end up accepting a pay cut and competing for the No. 3 RB job behind Raheem Mostert and De'Von Achane (not necessarily in that order). Backfield mate Salvon Ahmed is rehabbing from a foot injury and scheduled for unrestricted free agency.

         

Homer is primarily a special teams player, and the Bears can add around $1.9 million in cap space if they release him rather than keeping him for the second and final season of his contract. He barely played on offense in 2023 even when the team's backfield got hit with multiple injuries.

         

Wide Receivers       

Allen is scheduled for $23.1 million in non-guaranteed compensation in the final year of his contract, including a $5 million roster bonus due March 17. He was worth that and more before a heel injury ended his 2023 early, but the combination of age (32 in April) and a new coaching staff nonetheless puts his future with the Chargers in doubt. You'd like to think he'll get a big extension that lowers his cap hit for 2024 and increases his real-money compensation. 

Unfortunately, reality isn't always that nice, and Jim Harbaugh doesn't exactly seem like the sentimental type. I won't be shocked if the Chargers end up rolling with Palmer, Johnston and a rookie/free agent as their Top 3 at WR in 2024. 

           

Lockett has two years remaining on his contract and is scheduled for $17 million in non-guaranteed compensation each year ($15.3 million base salary + $1.7 million in per-game roster bonuses). As such, the Seahawks can add $17 million in cap space if he's designated as a post-June 1 cut or traded/released after June 1. The number drops to $7.1 million if he's cut without the designation or traded before then, though in that case he's off the books for 2025 (rather than counting $9.9 million against the cap).

The Seahawks have enough cap flexibility that it ultimately will come down to whether or not they think Lockett is worth $17 million. I'd say 'yes', but I'm not the one paying him, nor am I the one that drafted Jaxon Smith-Njigba to eventually replace him. If Lockett leaves, we could see Seattle's passing game highly concentrated between JSN and DK Metcalf, with both likely benefitting from more overall team play volume after the 'Hawks ran a league-low 995 plays in 2024.

            

Hopkins is entering the second season of a two-year contract and is scheduled for about $15-17 million in non-guaranteed compensation (depending on incentives), including a $4.46 million roster bonus due March 14. I think he's a better fit under new coach Brian Callahan than he was in the old offensive system, but that doesn't mean the Titans' front office will want to bring him back. 

This one could go either way, and I'm sure the team will bring in other WR talent if Hopkins is traded/released, rather than leaving second-year QB Will Levis totally dependent on breakouts from WR Treylon Burks and TE Chigoziem Okonkwo. The ancillary WRs from 2023, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Chris Moore, both are scheduled for unrestricted free agency in March.

      

Sutton has two seasons remaining on his contract, with about $13.5 million in non-guaranteed compensation each year. That's a reasonable number for a guy who profiles best as a No. 2 WR but has been overstretched as a No. 1 at times. Still, the Broncos might not pay it, as they don't have a great cap situation and might be heading into a tough rebuild. If he's going to be released, it will happen in the next few weeks before $2 million of his 2024 base salary becomes guaranteed on March 18. 

With Sutton and Patrick potential cap casualties and Jerry Jeudy a free agent, there's a non-zero chance Marvin Mims enters his second pro season as the Broncos' No. 1 receiver, even though he struggled to earn playing time as a rookie. Mims made a bunch of big plays on limited snaps early in the year, then did basically nothing later in the season even when he got more playing time some weeks. The 2023 second-round pick should at least have every opportunity to be a starter in 2024, if not the No. 1 guy. Guessing what Denver's offense will look like is rather difficult at the moment.

            

This is another one where we should see a resolution fairly soon. Johnson has one year remaining on his contract, with a non-guaranteed $7 million base salary and a $3 million roster bonus due March 16. Then again, he arguably has some trade value and would have even more value if the bonus has already been paid and he'll count just $7 million against the acquiring team's cap. Johnson doesn't seem like a great fit under new OC Arthur Smith, FWIW. 

Including the wideout in a trade package for a QB could make sense, though a few Pittsburgh beat reporters claim the team isn't interested in acquiring a starting-quality QB. Take that with a grain of salt, as most of the Steelers beat guys seem more concerned with pleasing ownership/management than providing accurate reports for their readers (preparing for futures as political reporters, perhaps?). That's not a strictly Pittsburgh thing, of course, but it does seem more pronounced there, for whatever reason. 

The Steelers front office has a stronger bargaining position this spring if other teams believe they're willing to move forward with just Kenny Pickett (and Mason Rudolph). Maybe that's really the case, maybe it isn't. Either way, it'd be malpractice to not at least discuss alternatives. One possibility here is that they truly aren't interested in trading for a QB... but only because they plan on drafting one in the first or second round.

            

Jones has one year left on his contract, with a non-guaranteed $7 million base salary, $500,000 workout bonus and $500,000 in per-game roster bonuses. The use of void years on his contract means the Jags need to declare him as a post-June 1 release in order to clear out a considerable chunk of 2024 cap space (nearly $8 million). Calvin Ridley's impending free agency could be a factor here, and 2023 sixth-round pick Parker Washington is a dark-horse candidate for a top-three role in 2024 given the uncertainty surrounding Ridley/Jones.

            

Slayton remains in this weird middle place where he's good enough to start but not good enough that a team is ever excited to have him as a starter. He'd probably fit best as perimeter-based No. 3 WR on a team that uses its slot guy on the outside in two-wide packages. In any case, Slayton has topped 700 yards in four of his five NFL seasons without ever getting to 800. 

And now he's scheduled for $6.2 million in non-guaranteed compensation for the final season of a two-year contract, including a $2.4 million roster bonus due March 18. You could argue it either way, but we know Slayton won't see that many targets even if he sticks around and remains a starter. 2023 third-round pick Jalin Hyatt might be able to replace Slayton as a high-aDOT, low-volume WR, but Wan'Dale Robinson is the guy that really interests me for fantasy. The 2022 second-round pick was heating up as a rookie before he tore an ACL, and he looked pretty good again in the second half of the 2023 campaign.

           

Cooks has $8 million in non-guaranteed compensation for the final year of his contract. He's probably still good enough to be worth more than $8 million in cap space, but the Cowboys are already paying a lot of star players and didn't exactly extract maximum value from Cooks in 2023 (he scored eight TDs but was targeted just 81 times in 16 games). 

With both Gallup and Cooks uncertain to return, 2022 third-round pick Jalen Tolbert could get a real shot in Year 3. Tolbert barely played as a rookie but then split the No. 3 WR role with Gallup in the second half of 2023. That's enough to give him some end-game appeal for best ball drafts, though I can't say Tolbert is the most exciting prospect, as he's about average in terms of size (6-1, 194) and speed (4.49 40) and turns 25 late in February. If anything, we might be underrating TE Jake Ferguson's contribution to the 2024 Dallas offense.

             

Tight Ends

Waller has three years remaining on his contract but no guaranteed money. He's scheduled for $1.275 million in per-game roster bonuses and $200,000 in workout bonuses each year, with a $10.525 million base salary in 2024, $11.525 million in 2025 and $13.525 million in 2026. The Giants can free up more than $11.5 million in 2024 cap space if he's declared as a post-June 1 cut.

Waller is still a good player when he's on the field, but he's now missed at least five games three years running. No. 2 TE Daniel Bellinger has experience as a starter, though he's shown zero explosiveness and isn't likely to ever be the type of TE that commands targets.

       

I figured Thomas would be a cap casualty last offseason, but the Commanders kept him around and deployed him as their starter again. They can save $6.5 million against the cap by releasing Thomas this offseason, which seems more likely than not under the new braintrust. Cole Turner and John Bates are the in-house replacement options, with the former more of a pass catcher and the latter more of a blocker. Neither sees like an ideal solution, so expect the Commanders to pursue free agents and/or rookies if they move on from Thomas.

        

This should probably be under 'high probability' given Hill's $10 million non-guaranteed base salary for 2024 (and 2025), but the Saints seem to have some kind of weird, emotional attachment to their jack-of-all-trades QB/TE. He's a fun player, no doubt, so maybe they'll do one of their patented renegotiations to lower his 2024 cap hit and kick the can down the road yet again.

      

Conklin is scheduled for $7 million in non-guaranteed compensation for the third and final year of his contract. He's a decent blocker and dump-off target but far from a difference-maker. His fate might depend on whether Aaron Rodgers thinks he's a cool dude or not. J-E-T-S!

         

Smith has a non-guaranteed $6.5 million base salary and no other compensation for the final year of his contract. His 2023 performance arguably justifies the salary, but Atlanta also has TE Kyle Pitts and just hired an offensive coordinator (Zac Robinson) who comes from the Rams' three-wide-heavy system. Smith might have a tiny bit of trade value.

           

The Vikings made Oliver the highest-paid No. 2 TE in the NFL last offseason, then dropped him below Johnny Mundt on the depth chart when T.J. Hockenson suffered an ACL tear. Mundt is scheduled for free agency and Hockenson may not be ready for Week 1, so it's possible the Vikings keep Oliver around rather than realizing ~$4.75 million in cap savings. 

         

The Browns signed Akins last offseason as insurance for David Njoku, who went on to have a career year. Now the Browns have a tough cap situation and can clear up $2 million by releasing Akins. They'll probably do it, even though another team with more flexibility might consider giving him a similar contract.

            

Low Probability of Release / Pay Cut

Quarterbacks

Wilson's fully guaranteed rookie contract means the Jets have no financial incentive to release him. They'll likely try to trade him for a late-round pick. If that doesn't work, they might cut him just to get bad memories/vibes out of the building. Probably not, but it's possible.

       

Stidham might be Denver's Week 1 starter, but there's also some slim chance he ends up off the team, which would clear out $5 million in cap space. He has a guarantee for $1 million of his $4.49 million base salary, plus a $1 million non-guaranteed roster bonus. I can't find anything on when the roster bonus is paid... probably at some point in mid-March. The most likely scenario remains moving on from Russell Wilson and then having Stidham compete with another QB (possibly a rookie?).

      

Running Backs

A few months ago, Jones appeared no better than 50/50 to see the final year of his contract. But then he blew up in December and January, ripping off five straight games with at least 18 carries and 108 rushing yards while helping the Packers go from 6-8 to the divisional round of the playoffs. Jones has $12 million in non-guaranteed compensation for 2024, but an extension now seems much more likely than a release. FWIW, the Packers can add more than $11 million in 2024 cap space if they decide to surprise me and declare Jones as a post-June 1 cut or wait until June to release/trade him. (Note that AJ Dillon is scheduled for unrestricted free agency in March.)

       

GM Andrew Berry already made it clear the Browns want Chubb back, but he also hinted at a contract renegotiation, which the RB might rightfully scoff at if it's just a soft way of saying "pay cut". On the other hand, an extension could make sense for both sides. Chubb is coming off an ACL tear, but he hasn't taken as many touches as a lot of other "workhorse" backs and is a special enough player to theoretically be one of the few RBs that remains effective into his early 30s.

I think Chubb will stay with the Browns, but the possibility of clearing $11.825 million in cap space means it's no guarantee. He has just one year remaining on his contract, with nearly all the compensation being in the form of a non-guaranteed $11.775 million base salary (he also has $425,000 in per-game roster bonuses, but those barely impact the 2024 cap sheet because he played only two games in 2023*).

*Per-game roster bonuses are calculated for the current year cap sheet based on how many games the player played last year, i.e., only 2/17ths of Chubb's per-game roster bonuses will count against the initial 2024 cap sheet... but then the Browns have to pay him for however many games he actually ends up playing... which is added to the cap sheet later on.

                      

Wide Receivers       

New offensive coordinator Liam Coen is already talking about moving Godwin back to the slot, and while that does seem likely to happen, there's some chance it's with another team. Godwin is entering the final year of his contract and scheduled for $20 million in non-guaranteed compensation. It's hard to imagine the Bucs would let both him and Mike Evans (FA) walk in the same offseason, so the scenario in which Godwin is released/traded might be the one in which Evans is re-signed.

Just don't tell Coen; his intro press conference certainly made it sound like he's expecting to work with Evans, Godwin and QB Baker Mayfield (also a free agent). I do think that's what the Bucs front office wants as well... but it might not be how the cookie crumbles.

        

Tight Ends

Johnson has $2 million of his $5.5 million base salary guaranteed for the final year of his contract, but the Saints are desperate enough for cap space that they may have to make some sub-optimal decisions on non-star players. Johnson should stick around, or at least have some trade value... I'm just not 100 percent sure of it. Fellow Saints TE Foster Moreau has a full guarantee on his $3.4 million base salary, FWIW.

       

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jerry Donabedian
Jerry was a 2018 finalist for the FSWA's Player Notes Writer of the Year and DFS Writer of the Year awards. A Baltimore native, Jerry roots for the Ravens and watches "The Wire" in his spare time.
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