NFL Game Previews: Raiders-Lions Matchup

NFL Game Previews: Raiders-Lions Matchup

This article is part of our NFL Game Previews series.

MONDAY NIGHT

Las Vegas (+8.5) at Detroit, o/u 45.5 – Monday, 8:15 p.m. EDT

The good news for the Raiders is that they should get Jimmy Garoppolo back this week after he missed his second game of the season last week, this time to a back issue. The bad news is how totally inadequate their backup options are, even though they were well aware of how fragile Jimmy G can be when they brought him in. Brian Hoyer went three-and-a-half quarters without producing even one touchdown against a Bears defense that surrendered over 30 points to the Packers and Broncos, not exactly offensive juggernauts. Garoppolo himself hasn't been great, for that matter, stumbling to a 7:8 TD:INT in his first five games with Vegas with a 7.3 YPA, which would be his lowest mark during any season in which he saw at least semi-regular action. The QB issues have dragged down Davante Adams too, as he hasn't scored or topped 75 receiving yards in four straight games, although Jakobi Meyers has picked up the slack and rookie tight end Michael Mayer. Maybe Adams should change his last name to Myers if he wants more looks, although 34 targets over his four-game slump isn't exactly being ignored.

The Lions got a rude awakening last week in Baltimore, giving up a season high in yards and points while producing a season low in both as well, but that seems like it can be chalked up to just one of those games.

MONDAY NIGHT

Las Vegas (+8.5) at Detroit, o/u 45.5 – Monday, 8:15 p.m. EDT

The good news for the Raiders is that they should get Jimmy Garoppolo back this week after he missed his second game of the season last week, this time to a back issue. The bad news is how totally inadequate their backup options are, even though they were well aware of how fragile Jimmy G can be when they brought him in. Brian Hoyer went three-and-a-half quarters without producing even one touchdown against a Bears defense that surrendered over 30 points to the Packers and Broncos, not exactly offensive juggernauts. Garoppolo himself hasn't been great, for that matter, stumbling to a 7:8 TD:INT in his first five games with Vegas with a 7.3 YPA, which would be his lowest mark during any season in which he saw at least semi-regular action. The QB issues have dragged down Davante Adams too, as he hasn't scored or topped 75 receiving yards in four straight games, although Jakobi Meyers has picked up the slack and rookie tight end Michael Mayer. Maybe Adams should change his last name to Myers if he wants more looks, although 34 targets over his four-game slump isn't exactly being ignored.

The Lions got a rude awakening last week in Baltimore, giving up a season high in yards and points while producing a season low in both as well, but that seems like it can be chalked up to just one of those games. Detroit is still 5-2 and the clear class of the NFC North, and the team will gets its bye next week to heal up. Jared Goff still threw for 284 yards even in last week's loss, but that was Road Goff. Road Goff has an 88.0 QB rating compared to Home Goff's 113.3, and Home Goff even has two rushing touchdowns to add to his seven passing TDs in three starts. Jahmyr Gibbs was also impressive as the lead back against the Ravens, and it will be interesting to see what the workload split in the backfield looks like when David Montgomery is back.

The Skinny

LV injuries: K Daniel Carlson (questionable, groin), LB Divine Deablo (out, ankle)
DET injuries: RB Montgomery (out, ribs), EDGE James Houston (IR, ankle)

LV DFS targets: Meyers $6,200 DK / $6,900 FD (DET 27th in DVOA vs. WR2)
DET DFS targets: Gibbs $6,600 DK / $7,000 FD (LV 28th in rushing DVOA, 24th in rushing yards per game allowed, t-27th in rushing TDs allowed)

LV DFS fades: none
DET DFS fades: none

Key stat: LV is 25th in third-down conversions at 35.0 percent; DET is fifth in third-down defense at 35.0 percent

The Scoop: Josh Jacobs grinds out 40 yards. Garoppolo throws for 220 yards and a TD to Meyers. Gibbs zips for 120 scrimmage yards and two scores, one rushing and one receiving. Goff throws for 360 yards and two more touchdowns, finding Amon-Ra St. Brown (who tops 100 yards) and Sam LaPorta. Lions 34-13

EARLY SUNDAY

Houston at Carolina (+3), o/u 43 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Coming out of their bye, the feisty Texans are 3-3 and in second place in the AFC South. C.J. Stroud has been the real deal, not throwing his first career INT until Week 6, and while his 59.6 percent completion rate is rookie-like, his 7.8 YPA and 4,700-yard pace are anything but. Keep in mind Andrew Luck still holds the NFL rookie record with 4,374 yards in 2012; even accounting for the extra game Stroud could play, he might shatter that mark. (Justin Herbert managed 4,336 yards over 15 games in 2020, which was actually ahead of Stroud's per-game pace.) With the rookie QB slinging it around so effectively, Nico Collins (on pace for over 1,500 receiving yards), fellow rookie Tank Dell (on pace for a 1,000-yard campaign despite missing a contest) and Dalton Schultz (a TD in three straight games) are all hitting the fantasy jackpot. Last year's rookie darling, Dameon Pierce, hasn't been so fortunate in the backfield though, and Devin Singletary is beginning to muscle in on his action. Neither of them are necessarily good, but at least one of them should be able to do some damage in this matchup. If not, well, there should be plenty of RBs available at the trade deadline. I hear Zack Moss might be available, maybe they should give the Colts a call.

The Panthers, also coming out of their bye, stand along as the only winless team left in the league. Only the Cardinals are stuck on one victory – all the other squads off to bad starts, like the Broncos and Giants, have already clawed their way to two wins. That'd be great if Carolina still held its 2024 first-round pick, but the franchise has Bryce Young instead. Somewhere, Chicago GM Ryan Poles is smiling. To his credit, Young is making some progress, posting a 65.8 percent completion rate over his last three games with a 4:2 TD:INT and 6.0 YPA, which doesn't seem like much but is a huge improvement on his first two NFL starts. Stroud was seen as the more pro-ready QB coming out of college, so the early results don't necessarily predict their future careers, but heading into the first NFL meeting between the first and second overall picks in the 2023 draft, Houston seems to have gotten the better guy. It might help if Young had better talent around him, but 33-year-old Adam Thielen has been his only reliable target, and the reliable on mediocre veterans has caused third-year wideout Terrace Marshall to look for an exit. I have a hard time with the idea that he has less to offer the Carolina offense than DJ Chark, and Frank Reich might want to look across at the other sideline Sunday and take some lessons from the chemistry that's developed between Stroud and Collins before peddling Marshall (taken in the second round, 40 picks ahead of Collins, in the 2021 draft) for a Day 3 pick upgrade.

The Skinny

HOU injuries: WR Robert Woods (questionable, foot)
CAR injuries: LB Frankie Luvu (questionable, hip) 

HOU DFS targets: Pierce $5,300 DK / $6,700 FD and Devin Singletary $4,400 DK / $5,400 FD (CAR 32nd in rushing DVOA, 31st in rushing yards per game allowed, 28th in YPC allowed, t-31st in rushing TDs allowed)
CAR DFS targets: none

HOU DFS fades: none
CAR DFS fades: Panthers DST $2,600 DK / $3,500 FD (t-27th in takeaways, HOU first in giveaways)

Key stat: HOU is 27th in red-zone conversions at 38.1 percent (8-for-21), CAR is t-30th in red-zone defense at 75.0 percent (18-for-24), and 29th in red-zone trips allowed per game

Weather notes: clear, temperature in the low 80s, 9-10 mph wind, 1-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Pierce leads the HOU backfield with 60 yards and a score. Stroud throws for 310 yards and three touchdowns, one each to Collins (who tops 100 yards), Schultz and Teagan Quitoriano. A healthy Miles Sanders manages 50 yards. Young throws for under 200 yards and a TD to Thielen, but he does pick up his first NFL rushing touchdown. Texans 31-20

L.A. Rams (+6.5) at Dallas, o/u 45 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Last week's loss at home to Pittsburgh was a tough one for the Rams. They out-gained the Steelers and won the turnover battle, but Brett Maher left seven points on the table (two missed FGs and a missed PAT) in a seven-point loss to make himself an ex-Ram. On the other hand, the offense went cold in the fourth quarter while the defense let Kenny Pickett lead two TD drives, so Maher seems more like a scapegoat than the true villain. Sean McVay is down to repatriated Darrell Henderson and retread Royce Freeman in the backfield, and while they were both reasonably productive against the Steelers, Dallas has had a stingier front seven this year. The Rams' offense still flows through Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua though, and one or the other has had a huge game in each of the three weeks since Kupp's return. The problem is, that hasn't led to much in the way of results. The team's averaged 19 points and under 18 first downs in those three contests, and the only time it's done better than that over the last month or so is when it got an extra drive in OT against the Colts. Last season's decline was easy to pin on injuries, but maybe the league is just on to McVay.

The Cowboys squeaked past the Chargers in the Kellen Moore Bowl before their bye, now they get the other Los Angeles team coming out of it. Oh, those clever NFL schedule-makers. At 4-2, Dallas looks like a solid playoff team, but they're already two wins behind Philly in the NFC East and given the team's respective schedules, the Cowboys might need to sweep the season series to close that gap. Dak Prescott is coming off his best performance of the season, and his numbers should normalize from here on out after that wacky start to the season in which the team played almost nothing but blowouts. Having someone other than Tony Pollard or CeeDee Lamb step up would be nice too, and Brandin Cooks did get into the end zone for the first time in 2023 in Week 6, but the team is really only going to go as far as Micah Parsons and the defense can take them. As offense with the brain trust of Mike McCarthy and Brian Schottenheimer calling the shots just isn't going to frighten anyone when it really counts.

The Skinny

LAR injuries: RB Kyren Williams (IR, ankle), LB Ernest Jones (questionable, knee)
DAL injuries: LB Leighton Vander Esch (IR, neck)

LAR DFS targets: none
DAL DFS targets: none

LAR DFS fades: Stafford $6,600 DK / $6,500 FD (DAL third in passing DVOA, third in net passing yards per game allowed), Tutu Atwell $4,400 DK / $5,400 FD (DAL first in DVOA vs. WR3), Rams DST $2,400 DK / $3,400 FD (t-27th in takeaways, 29th in sacks)
DAL DFS fades: none

Key stat: DAL is fourth in third-down conversions at 47.7 percent; LAR are 16th in third-down defense at 38.5 percent

The Scoop: Henderson leads the LAR backfield with 60 yards, while Freeman adds 40. Stafford throws for 250 yards and two scores, finding Kupp and Tyler Higbee. Pollard racks up 90 combined yards and a TD. Prescott throws for 290 yards and two touchdowns, one each to Luke Schoonmaker and Lamb, while Damone Clark returns a fumble to the house. Cowboys 28-23

Minnesota at Green Bay (+1), o/u 43 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

After last week's upset of the reeling 49ers, the Vikings have won three of four and are looking very much like the 2022 edition of the team, which isn't necessarily a compliment – Minnesota had a minus-3 point differential last season, and through seven games this season it's a minus-1. Jordan Addison's coming-out party was timely, but Justin Jefferson could miss another month and Kirk Cousins doesn't have many other dependable options aside from T.J. Hockenson. The Vikings defense hasn't been awful, but it's a long way from good, and a rumored Danielle Hunter trade certainly wouldn't help. The backfield is also becoming a bit of a mess, as Cam Akers may be pushing his way into a timeshare even though it's not clear he's actually even as good as Alexander Mattison. Numbers like yards per rush after contact slightly favor Akers, but Next Gen Stats has Mattison far ahead in RYOE (Rush Yards Over Expected) per carry. In theory, a "keep both of them fresh" approach could help the offense overall, even if it doesn't please fantasy GMs.

The Jordan Love Era is experiencing some growing pains. Back-to-back losses on the road that arguably should have been wins have left the Packers at 2-4, and the first-year starting QB is now last in the league in completion rate (57.5 percent) and near the bottom in YPA (6.5), just ahead of the likes of Mac Jones and Zach Wilson. Only Jalen Hurts and Jimmy Garoppolo have thrown more INTs than Love, and there's only so much of that you can pin on his inexperienced receiving corps. Getting the running game going would help take some pressure off him, but this may just be a season in which Green Bay has to take its lumps.

The Skinny

MIN injuries: WR Jefferson (IR, hamstring)
GB injuries: TE Luke Musgrave (questionable, ankle), LB De'Vondre Campbell (questionable, ankle)

MIN DFS targets: Addison $5,700 DK / $7,300 FD (GB 29th in DVOA vs. WR1)
GB DFS targets: Romeo Doubs $4,900 DK / $6,700 FD (MIN 32nd in DVOA vs. WR2)

MIN DFS fades: Brandon Powell $3,200 DK / $4,700 FD (GB second in DVOA vs. WR3)
GB DFS fades: none

Head-to-head record, last five years: 5-4-1 GB, average score 27-23 GB, average margin of victory 11 points. The home team has won four straight meetings, with the last three being decided by 16 points or more.
Key stat: MIN is fifth in net yards per play at 0.73; GB is 16th at -0.09

Weather notes: overcast, temperature in the low 40s, less than 10 mph wind, 25-35 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Akers leads the MIN backfield with 60 yards, but Mattison catches a TD pass. Cousins throws for 280 yards and two more scores, finding Addison and K.J. Osborn. Aaron Jones gains 60 yards. Love throws for 230 yards and two touchdowns, hitting Doubs and Jayden Reed. Vikings 24-20

New Orleans (+1.5) at Indianapolis, o/u 43.5
Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Saints can't seem to get it together, losing four of their last five after a thumping at the hands of the Jaguars last week. The offense does seem to be on the upswing, as Derek Carr has thrown for over 300 yards in back-to-back games, but the defense might be cracking after having to carry the load early as New Orleans coughed up a season-high 31 points against Jacksonville. Alvin Kamara at least looks like his usual self, averaging nearly 110 scrimmage yards a game since his return, and with another week to put his hamstring injury behind him, Jamaal Williams might be ready to supply some thunder to Kamara's lightning. The talent is here, and the NFC South remains winnable – in fact, the Saints are the only team in the division right now with a positive point differential. It's just a question of whether it can stay on the field and start to click.

The Colts have an identical 3-4 record, but somehow it seems like they've played better than the Saints. Maybe it's just that preseason expectations were lower in Indy's case. Gardner Minshew's first two games as the starting QB in the wake of Anthony Richardson's shoulder surgery have been an adventure, to say the least. There's no way to sugarcoat four turnovers a game, but he produced four TDs last week against an elite Cleveland defense, and the Colts only lost because of two phantom penalty calls that the NFL has admitted were bogus – at least according to the notoriously reliable Jim Irsay, anyway. Having a loose cannon like Minshew under center boosts the ceiling of the whole passing game, and both Michael Pittman and rookie Josh Downs have benefited so far. With Jonathan Taylor looking to be back in form too, this team could be a fantasy bonanza in the second half along the lines of the Chargers or Vikings, putting up points and giving them up with equal aptitude.

The Skinny

NO injuries: LB Demario Davis (questionable, knee), S Tyrann Mathieu (questionable, foot)
IND injuries: RB Zack Moss (questionable, elbow), TE Kylen Granson (out, concussion)

NO DFS targets: none
IND DFS targets: none

NO DFS fades: none
IND DFS fades: Taylor $6,200 DK / $7,100 FD (NO t-5th in rushing TDs allowed, third in passing DVOA vs. RB)

Key stat: NO is 29th in red-zone conversions at 37.5 percent (9-for-24); IND is t-23rd in red-zone defense at 61.9 percent (13-for-21)

The Scoop: Kamara picks up 80 scrimmage yards and a score. Carr throws for 210 yards and a touchdown to Chris Olave. Taylor also gains 80 yards and a TD. Minshew throws for 280 yards and two scores, one each to Downs and Alec Pierce. Colts 27-17

New England (+9.5) at Miami, o/u 47 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

I'm not sure how this spread wasn't firmly in double digits when I pulled it, but OK. The Patriots pulled off a big upset of the Bills last week, scoring a season-high 29 points against an injury-plagued defense – more than they'd managed during a three-game losing streak to begin October in which they got out-scored 93-20. Mac Jones tossed multiple TDs for the first time since Week 1, and his 9.1 YPA was a full two yards higher than his prior season high, but the third-year QB still has just a 7:7 TD:INT through seven games with barely 200 passing yards a game, and one solid performance doesn't erase the last two years. This is still an offense with Kendrick Bourne as its most dangerous weapon, and while the defense has been good this season, it hasn't been great. You can get away with a Bourne-led passing attack when you have a great defense. Otherwise, you're sitting at 2-5 and reminiscing about your glory days.

At 5-2, the Dolphins are on top of the AFC East, and nobody's scored more than their 34.3 points a game. Nobody's even particularly close – the Niners are second at 28.7 PPG. Even so, last week's loss to the Eagles in a possible Super Bowl preview leaves them just one win ahead of the Bills in the AFC East, and also provided the rest of the league with a potential blueprint on how to slow down Mike McDaniels' offense. That's easier said than done of course, and few teams have corners the caliber of Darius Slay and James Bradberry or a front seven that can make Tua Tagovailoa that uncomfortable, but it should at least be reassuring to other defensive coordinators that it's possible. Raheem Mostert's health could determine whether the Dolphins romp, or the Patriots can keep things close and make things interesting late – New England defense has been fairly stout on the ground, but it ranks in the bottom 10 in catches and receiving yards allowed to RBs, and advance stats paint it as even more vulnerable to RBs through the air. Mostert's no Austin Ekeler, but he already has two receiving TDs on the season.

The Skinny

NE injuries: EDGE Josh Uche (questionable, foot), EDGE Matthew Judon (IR, biceps)
MIA injuries: RB Mostert (questionable, ankle), RB De'Von Achane (IR, knee), S Jevon Holland (questionable, concussion)

NE DFS targets: none
MIA DFS targets: Mostert $7,700 DK / $9,000 FD (NE 32nd in passing DVOA vs. RB), Cedrick Wilson $3,000 DK / $5,000 FD and Braxton Berrios $3,000 DK / $4,900 FD (NE 31st in DVOA vs. WR3)

NE DFS fades: Patriots DST $2,000 DK / $3,100 FD (t-27th takeaways, MIA t-2nd in sacks allowed)
MIA DFS fades: Tyreek Hill $9,500 DK / $9,500 FD (NE first in DVOA vs. WR1)

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 7-4 MIA, average score 23-20 NE, average margin of victory 12 points. Since Tom Brady left the Patriots, MIA is 5-2 in this rivalry and 3-0 at Hard Rock Stadium, winning those three games by an average score of 25-14
Key stat: MIA is first in red-zone conversions at 77.8 percent (21-for-27); NE is eighth in red-zone defense at 45.8 percent (11-for-24)

Weather notes: overcast, temperature in the mid-80s, 10-15 mph wind, 10-20 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Rhamondre Stevenson leads the NE backfield with 50 yards. Jones throws for under 200 yards and a score to Hunter Henry. Mostert erupts for 130 scrimmage yards and two TDs, one rushing and one receiving. Tua goes wild again, throwing for 360 yards and three more touchdowns, one each to Jaylen Waddle (who tops 100 yards), Berrios and Wilson. A Kader Kohou pick-six puts a bow on the blowout. Dolphins 42-13

N.Y. Jets "at" N.Y. Giants (+2.5), o/u 36.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

It's the, uhh, Test of Mettle at MetLife! (OK, not great, I know. Do I look like Don King?) The Jets roll in having won two straight games before their bye, as Breece Hall got unleashed and piled up 287 combined yards and two TDs. Having a running game to take the pressure off Zach Wilson hasn't exactly allowed the young QB to blossom, though, as he failed to throw a touchdown or reach 200 passing yards in either victory. The progress he'd seemed to show in Week 4 against Kansas City has stalled out again, but just so long as Wilson avoids turnovers, the combination of Hall and a defense that has generated nine takeaways in its last three contests should be enough to keep the Jets in wild-card contention.

New York's other New Jersey-based team only has one fewer win than the Jets, but the Giants are a long, long way from sniffing the playoffs. Calling the offense a train wreck is an insult to transportation disasters. Brian Daboll's crew has scored a total of 54 points over its last five games, and the fact that there might be a brewing QB controversy because Tyrod Taylor has managed to post not-awful numbers over the last two weeks (2:0 TD:INT, 64.6 percent completion rate, 7.4 YPA) just highlights how big a mistake it was to give Daniel Jones big money. Jones will miss a third straight game, so any tough decisions will get put off at least one more week, but I doubt any of the team's receivers will be complaining. To be fair to Jones, Taylor's had the benefit of working with a healthy Saquon Barkley, and the star RB has churned out 216 scrimmage yards in the last two games. Stick Tyrod with Matt Breida for 40-50 snaps, and let's see how he does. The Giants' defense does seem to have turned a corner though, so the team might be able to stitch together some low-scoring wins in the squishy middle of its schedule – after this, the Giants play road games against the Raiders in Week 9, the Commanders in Week 11 and face the Patriots at home in Week 12 before finally getting their bye.

The Skinny

NYJ injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries
NYG injuries: QB Jones (out, neck), TE Darren Waller (questionable, hamstring), EDGE Kayvon Thibodeaux (questionable, knee)

NYJ DFS targets: Hall $5,900 DK / $7,200 FD (NYG 30th in rushing DVOA, 29th in YPC allowed, 30th in rushing TDs allowed), Jets DST $4,000 DK / $4,400 FD (fourth in takeaways, NYG 31st in sacks allowed)
NYG DFS targets: none

NYJ DFS fades: none
NYG DFS fades: Darius Slayton $3,400 DK / $5,400 FD (NYJ first in DVOA vs. WR2)

Key stat: NYG are t-30th in red-zone conversions at 33.3 percent (6-for-18); NYJ are fourth in red-zone defense at 36.8 percent (7-for-19)

Weather notes: overcast, temperature in the mid-50s, less than 10 mph wind, 85-95 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Hall slips for 70 yards and a touchdown. Wilson throws for under 200 yards but does hit Garrett Wilson for a score. Barkley responds with 90 combined yards and a receiving TD. Taylor throws for under 200 yards, gets picked off twice and sacked five times. Jets 17-10

Jacksonville at Pittsburgh (+2.5), o/u 42 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

After so many years of everything going wrong for the Jaguars, this could be the one where things just seem to go right. Last week they got out-gained 407-330 by the Saints in New Orleans and lost the turnover battle 2-1, and still managed to extend their win streak to four games. Travis Etienne's form has been scintillating, and he's scored a brace of TDs (a brace is British for 'two'. If London is going to be the Jags' home away from home, we might as well start trying to sound like footie commentators when talking about them) in three straight games with 344 scrimmage yards. Trevor Lawrence was supposed to be playing through a knee injury as well, but he went out and posted a season high in rushing yards last week, so it can't be that bad. The last two victories have come with Calvin Ridley doing very little, and right about now he's probably feeling the grind of the season after his long layoff. Jacksonville's on bye next week, so if you want a buy-low target, he's your man.

Of course the Steelers won coming out of their bye last week. What sort of football no-nothing would expect otherwise? Mike Tomlin's crew is 4-2, and the only two games they've lost are the ones in which the defense didn't hold up its end up the bargain, allowing 30 points to the Niners and Texans. In the four victories, Pittsburgh's held the opposition to 22 points or less, which is the range it needs to be in when the offense is averaging only 17.2 points a game. I don't see a lot of hope for significant improvement on that side of the ball either. Kenny Pickett's season high in passing yards is 235, and his most notable stat might be that he hasn't fumbled yet in 2023. The backfield duo of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren is likewise adequate, but little more, and while Diontae Johnson had a decent day against the Rams last week in his return from IR, George Pickens is only real game-breaking threat on the offensive side of the ball. With wins over the Browns and Ravens already in their pocket, the Steelers might be the slight favorite to come out on top in the AFC North, but it won't be easy or pretty. Which, frankly, is probably the way Steeler fans like it.

The Skinny

JAC injuries: QB Lawrence (questionable, knee), WR Zay Jones (out, knee)
PIT injuries: TE Pat Freiermuth (IR, hamstring), EDGE Cameron Heyward (IR-R, groin)

JAC DFS targets: none
PIT DFS targets: none

JAC DFS fades: Evan Engram $4,500 DK / $5,700 FD (PIT first in DVOA vs. TE)
PIT DFS fades: Harris $5,100 DK / $6,300 FD (JAC sixth in rushing DVOA, fourth in rushing yards per game allowed, fourth in YPC allowed)

Key stat: PIT is 22nd in third-down conversions at 36.5 percent; JAC is seventh in third-down defense at 35.4 percent

Weather notes: overcast, temperature in the high 50s, less than 10 mph wind, 70-80 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Etienne gains 70 yards and just the one TD. Lawrence throws for 240 yards and two scores, hitting Christian Kirk and Jamal Agnew. Harris grinds out 50 yards. Pickett throws for under 200 yards and a touchdown to Pickett. Jaguars 24-13

Atlanta at Tennessee (+2.5), o/u 36 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Huzzah, it's time for the Arthur Smith Bowl! The Falcons may not be the only team in the NFC South with a positive point differential, but they are the only one with a record above .500 at 4-3, and that's a bit more important in the long run. Their latest win, last week over the Bucs, came with just a smidge of... confusion? Controversy? I'm not sure what to call it when a team just doesn't use its shiny new first-round draft pick because of Reasons. Bijan Robinson saw a whopping 10 snaps and one touch, and while coach Smith said at halftime the rookie RB was feeling under the weather, that wasn't good enough for the angry hordes on fka Twitter who were calling for Congressional investigations and demanding their bets be voided. The NFL may have some questions too about how Robinson wasn't listed on the injury report, but Tyler Allgeier topped 100 scrimmage yards and we got a Cordarrelle Patterson sighting, so it all worked out in the end – even if Desmond Ridder did lose three fumbles in the red zone. Over his last three games, he's got a 68.8 percent completion rate, an 8.1 YPA and nearly 300 passing yards a game while producing five TDs, but he's also committed six giveaways. It's progress to be sure, but I doubt anyone had Ridder turning into the next Jeff George on their bingo cards.

The vultures are circling the Titans (the team Smith was OC for before taking the Falcons' top job) after their 2-4 start to the season, especially after Kevin Byard was dealt to the Eagles. The talking heads are trying to will a Derrick Henry trade into existence, but it's hard to imagine them getting a great offer for him, and they aren't motivated sellers on that front. DeAndre Hopkins is on the books for 2024 though, and if Tennessee can somehow get someone to swallow the contracts of Jeffery Simmons or Harold Landry, you can be sure the front office will take back whatever draft capital they can get. Even coming out of the team's bye, Ryan Tannehill isn't healthy enough to play, and coach Mike Vrabel has said that both rookie Will Levis and second-year QB Malik Willis will get snaps in his place. Whether that means Willis sees specific RPO-like packages or they rotate series like it's an early-season college game isn't clear, though. Either way, it likely won't help the offense, and considering the Titans' two wins have come in the only two games they've scored more than 16 points, it doesn't bode well for their chances.

The Skinny

ATL injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries (or are there... ?)
TEN injuries: QB Tannehill (out, ankle)

ATL DFS targets: Drake London $5,100 DK / $6,700 FD (TEN 32nd in DVOA vs. WR1)
TEN DFS targets: none

ATL DFS fades: none
TEN DFS fades: Henry $7,600 DK / $8,000 FD (ATL fifth in rushing DVOA, first in rushing TDs allowed)

Key stat: TEN is 28th in third-down conversions at 33.8 percent; ATL is third in third-down defense at 33.7 percent

Weather notes: overcast, temperature in the low 70s, less than 10 mph wind, 40-50 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Robinson leads the ATL backfield with 60 yards. Ridder throws for under 200 yards and a touchdown to London. Henry manages 70 yards. Neither Levis nor Willis have much success through the air, but Willis runs in a score while Levis tosses a pick-six to Jessie Bates. Falcons 20-13

Philadelphia at Washington (+6.5), o/u 43.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Ugh, so boring. With their emphatic win over the Dolphins last week, the Eagles have the best record in the NFC at 6-1. Best in the AFC? Their Super Bowl LVII opponents from Kansas City. I'm already sick of seeing ads with the Kelce brothers, but we're going to get Manning levels of over-saturation if they have a rematch in February. Anyway, Philly's defense has held four of its last five opponents to 20 points or less, including Miami, while aside from the hiccup against the Jets, Jalen Hurts and company have been soaring. The company is maybe doing more of the heavy lifting though, as the QB has already been picked off eight times in seven games (plus two lost fumbles) and throwing only six INTs in 15 games last season, and a career-high nine in 2021. That could come back to bite the Eagles at some point, but for now the rest of the roster is covering for those turnovers.

The Commanders took the Eagles to overtime in their Week 4 meeting back in Philly but couldn't get the job done, as Ron Rivera flinched on going for two after Sam Howell hit Jahan Dotson for a TD on the final play of the fourth quarter, and then watched his offense go three-and-out on its only possession in OT. Like most of the other first-year starters at quarterback this season, Howell's progress has been of the two steps forward, two steps back variety. Or in his case, two steps forward, 12 yards back as he flees from another pass rusher. Washington's lost four of its last five, and the offensive line's inability to keep Howell upright is the primary culprit. He's been sacked a brutal 40 times in seven games and is on pace to shatter David Carr's NFL record of 76 in 2002, if Howell doesn't shatter some bones first. There's talent on this offense, and Howell has shown he's capable of coming up big in big moments, but until he gets adequate protection little of that will matter. Chris Rodriguez began to chip away at Brian Robinson's starting role last week, and that's probably due to the rookie's willingness to pick up blitzes. He's at best a small part of the solution, though.

The Skinny

PHI injuries: WR Quez Watkins (IR, hamstring)
WAS injuries: WR Curtis Samuel (questionable, foot), LB Cody Barton (out, ankle)

PHI DFS targets: Hurts $8,200 DK / $9,200 FD (WAS 27th in passing DVOA, 27th in net passing yards per game, 28th in YPA allowed, t-30th in passing TDs allowed, 32nd in rushing yards allowed to QB), Eagles DST $4,300 DK / $5,000 FD (t-3rd in sacks, WAS 32nd in sacks allowed)
WAS DFS targets: Logan Thomas $3,400 DK / $5,400 FD (PHI 32nd in DVOA vs. TE)

PHI DFS fades: none
WAS DFS fades: Robinson $5,400 DK / $6,100 FD (PHI first in rushing DVOA, first in rushing yards per game allowed) 

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 8-3 PHI, average score 25-20 PHI, average margin of victory 10 points. PHI has won two straight meetings at FedEx Field and five of the last six. WAS's lone win at home during that time was a 27-17 victory in Week 1 of the 2020 season. Dwayne Haskins beat Carson Wentz, and Peyton Barber ran for two TDs for the Football Team
Key stat: PHI is third in third-down conversions at 48.5 percent; WAS is 15th in third-down defense at 38.4 percent

Weather notes: overcast, temperature in the low 70s, less than 10 mph wind, 10-20 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: D'Andre Swift racks up 110 scrimmage yards and a score. Hurts throws for 350 yards and three TDs, one each to A.J. Brown (who tops 100 yards), Dallas Goedert and Olamide Zaccheaus. Robinson ekes out 40 yards. Howell throws for 200 yards and two touchdowns, finding Thomas and Terry McLaurin, but he gets sacked six more times. Eagles 34-17

LATE SUNDAY

Cleveland (+3.5) at Seattle, o/u 39.5 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT

Just when you think you have all the answers, the NFL goes and changes the questions. The Browns went from handing the Niners their first loss and holding them to a measly 17 points, to coughing up 38 to Gardner Minshew and the Colts. Makes total sense. The fact that the refs handed Cleveland the win isn't really the issue; this is a supposedly elite defense that's now given up four or more offensive TDs in two of its last three games. Hmm. Given the state of the offense – starting QB down with shoulder woes, top two running backs hurt and one gone for the year – Myles Garrett's side of the ball can't afford to regress. PJ Walker started under center last week and didn't look good at all, but the only other option is raw rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who looked even worse when he was forced into action in Week 4.

At 4-2, the Seahawks are suddenly only half a game behind the 49ers in the NFC West. A defense that looked incapable of stopping anyone, and which gave up 27 points to the winless Panthers back in Week 3, has done a complete 180 and allowed only 30 points over its last three games. Facing the Giants and Cardinals, not to mention a wounded Joe Burrow, certainly helped, but those offenses are no worse than the one Bryce Young is helming. A vastly improved run defense has been at the core of Seattle's defensive resurgence in 2023, as the returns of Jarran Reed and Bobby Wagner have taken the unit from 26th in YPC allowed last year to third this season. Geno Smith hasn't posted numbers quite as big as he did in his comeback campaign, but he's topped an 8.0 YPA in four of the last five games with a 69.8 percent completion rate over that stretch, so the fantasy production should come.

The Skinny

CLE injuries: QB Deshaun Watson (out, shoulder), RB Jerome Ford (questionable, ankle)
SEA injuries: WR Tyler Lockett (questionable, hamstring)

CLE DFS targets: none
SEA DFS targets: Seahawks DST $3,400 DK / $4,300 FD (t-5th in sacks, CLE t-30th in giveaways)

CLE DFS fades: Ford $5,300 DK / $7,000 FD and Kareem Hunt $5,200 DK / $7,000 FD (SEA third in rushing DVOA, sixth in rushing yards per game allowed, third in YPC allowed)
SEA DFS fades: Smith $5,900 DK / $6,500 FD (CLE second in passing DVOA, first in net passing yards per game), Tyler Lockett $6,000 DK / $6,700 FD (CLE third in DVOA vs. WR2)

Key stat: CLE is 30th in third-down conversions at 29.5 percent; SEA is 28th in third-down defense at 46.1 percent

Weather notes: clear, temperature in the low 50s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Ford plays, but Hunt leads the CLE backfield with 70 yards and a TD. Walker throws for under 200 yards and gets picked off twice. Kenneth Walker gains 50 yards and a touchdown. Smith throws for 230 yards and two scores, hitting Jaxon Smith-Njigba and DK Metcalf. Seahawks 24-13

Baltimore at Arizona (+8.5), o/u 44 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

I get the sense the Ravens didn't get quite enough credit for their pasting of the Lions last week. Because all the focus coming into the game seemed to be on Detroit, and whether they were finally a contender again, the lopsided result got chalked up to, "LOL, same ole Lions." Maybe instead, this was simply a case of a legit Super Bowl contender rising to the occasion on its home turf. The 337 yards of offense Detroit put up were actually the most Baltimore's allowed all year, but the Ravens kept that real estate from becoming points until it didn't matter. Meanwhile, Lamar Jackson was leading his crew to 503 yards and 38 points, both season highs, against what had been a top 10 defense coming into the game. The run game under Todd Monken might be a little less efficient than it used to be, but if that's the tradeoff for Lamar passing the ball like it's 2019 again, no one's going to complain.

Remember a month ago, when the Cardinals were "surprisingly competitive"? Yeah, about that... they've lost four straight games by an average score of about 29-14, as the defense's luck begins to turn and the offense gets diminishing returns on the Joshua Dobbs experiment. Defense first – Arizona is tied for ninth in sacks but dead last in pressure rate, and it's not the latter that's catching up to the former. The Cards are last in first downs allowed, 29th in yards per play allowed, and 31st in percentage of the opposition's drives that have resulted in points. This is a bad unit that's getting worse, and it wouldn't surprising if the likes of Budda Baker, Jalen Thompson, or maybe even Zaven Collins got shipped out before the trade deadline. As for the offense, Kyler Murray's close to a return – Week 10 at home against the Falcons would be my guess, rather than next week in Cleveland – but will Marquise Brown still be around for him to throw to? Given the team's other injuries, the cupboard could be pretty bare by the time Murray's back under center.

The Skinny

BAL injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries
ARI injuries: QB Murray (PUP-R, knee), RB James Conner (IR, knee), TE Zack Ertz (IR, quadriceps), S Thompson (questionable, hamstring)

BAL DFS targets: Zay Flowers $5,600 DK / $6,500 FD (ARI 31st in DVOA vs. WR1)
ARI DFS targets: none

BAL DFS fades: none
ARI DFS fades: Dobbs $5,200 DK / $6,600 FD (BAL first in passing DVOA, second in net passing yards per game allowed, first in YPA allowed, t-1st in passing TDs allowed)

Key stat: ARI is 24th in red-zone conversions at 44.4 percent (8-for-18); BAL is first in red-zone defense at 23.5 percent (4-for-17)

The Scoop: Gus Edwards gains 90 yards and a touchdown, while Justice Hill also runs in a score. Jackson throws for 300 yards and three TDs, two to Flowers (who tops 100 yards) and one to Nelson Agholor. Emari Demercado leads the ARI backfield with 70 scrimmage yards and a receiving score. Dobbs throws for under 200 yards and gets sacked four times, but he does run in a TD himself. Ravens 35-17

Kansas City at Denver (+7.5), o/u 46.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

The defending champs are defending their championship in style. Since that Week 1 loss to the Lions, Kansas City has reeled off six straight wins, and last week Patrick Mahomes finally had his first huge game, slinging it for 424 yards and four TDs against the Chargers. He's completed better than 70 percent of his passes in five of the six victories, and he's creeping toward a pace that would give him his third career 5,000-yard season, which is as many as Peyton Manning and Tom Brady have combined. (Drew Brees is the all-time leader with four.) The amazing thing about those numbers is that still not entirely clear who his No. 1 wide receiver is. Travis Kelce is of course his No. 1 option, but No. 1 wideout? That's trickier. Rashee Rice is close, but he also hasn't seen more than seven targets in a game yet. Isiah Pacheco is at least the clear No. 1 back, getting into the end zone in four of the last five games with 458 scrimmage yards, and Steve Spagnuolo's defense has been fantastic, recording at least one takeaway in every game this season and not allowing an opponent to top 20 points during the win streak – and Detroit got all of 21 in its win. The unit hasn't been statistically dominant, but it's been very good, and if Mahomes is roaring to life, it doesn't need to be anything more.

A narrow win at home over a Packers team led by a first-year QB doesn't exactly change the narrative around the 2023 Broncos, but it beats taking their sixth loss. Sean Payton's return to the sideline has been largely a disaster so far, and Russell Wilson's recent production doesn't suggest he's had a positive impact there – Wilson's come up short of 200 passing yards in three straight games, including the first meeting with KC, while posting a 64.6 percent completion rate, a 5.9 YPA and a 4:2 TD:INT. On the bright side, Javonte Williams finally flashed his pre-injury form last week, and treating the backfield as the centerpiece of the offense from here on out might be the way to go, especially with rookie Jaleel McLaughlin also looking good. It's not exactly Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram, but Peyton should remember how to make it work. The big question is whether Denver will be sellers at the trade deadline. Patrick Surtain rumors seem very silly to me, but Justin Simmons could be moved, as could either Courtland Sutton or Jerry Jeudy.

The Skinny

KC injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries
DEN injuries: TE Greg Dulcich (IR, hamstring)

KC DFS targets: Mahomes $8,400 DK / $9,000 FD (DEN 32nd in passing DVOA, 30th in net passing yards per game allowed, 31st in YPA allowed, 32nd in passing TDs allowed), Pacheco (DEN 31st in rushing DVOA, 32nd in rushing yards per game allowed, 32nd in YPC allowed), Marquez Valdes-Scantling $3,200 DK / $5,400 FD (DEN 31st in DVOA vs. WR2, 31st in DVOA vs. deep throws), Skyy Moore $3,200 DK / $4,900 FD and Kadarius Toney $3,400 DK / $5,200 FD (DEN 30th in DVOA vs. WR3), Kelce $8,400 DK / $9,000 FD (DEN 31st in DVOA vs. TE) 
DEN DFS targets: none

KC DFS fades: none
DEN DFS fades: Sutton $5,300 DK / $6,900 FD (KC second in DVOA vs. WR1)

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 11-0 KC, average score 28-16 KC, average margin of victory 11 points. KC has won 16 straight meetings in this rivalry. DEN's last win at Empower Field at Mile High came in Week 2 of the 2014 season, when Peyton Manning's three passing TDs beat Knile Davis' two rushing TDs in a 24-17 victory. So far, that was the only year of Andy Reid's tenure in KC the team hasn't won double-digit games, going 9-7. 
Key stat: KC is second in third-down conversions at 48.9 percent; DEN is 17th in third-down defense at 39.5 percent

Weather notes: clear, temperature in the high 20s, less than 10 mph wind, 1-30 percent chance of snow

The Scoop: Pacheco rumbles for 70 yards and a touchdown. Mahomes throws for 370 yards and three TDs, two to Kelce (who tops 100 yards) and one to Rice. Williams collects 90 combined yards and a score. Wilson throws for 200 yards and a touchdown to Jeudy. Kansas City 31-20

Cincinnati (+5.5) at San Francisco, o/u 45 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

At the beginning of the season, this looked like a potential Super Bowl preview. It still could be, but the last couple of weeks have definitely cast doubt on that proposition. The Bengals have won two straight and three of four, but the wins were driven by the defense regaining its swagger, not Joe Burrow – in two of the three victories, Cincy scored less than 20 points, and a big game for the passing game against Arizona hardly counts. Burrow should be that much closer to 100 percent coming out of the bye, but it's still a little bit worrying that he couldn't top a 5.5 YPA against his non-Cards opponents. Over that four-game streak though, Lou Anarumo's defense has given up 19 points a game and generated eight takeaways, and your quarterback doesn't need to be at peak efficiency when you're that stingy. Ja'Marr Chase may not have noticed there were any issues on offense, though. While everyone else has struggled, he's erupted for a 40-486-3 line on a massive 56 targets during those four games. The Bengals will need someone else to get going though, and sooner rather than later. After this week, they face the Bills in Week 9 and the Ravens in Week 11, with the upstart Texans in between as a classic trap game.

On the other sideline, the team that looked like the kings of the NFC to begin the season have lost two straight, both on the road. A close loss in Cleveland against a mauling Browns defense is one thing, but scoring only 17 points against the Vikings? That's concerning for a team that didn't fail to score at least 30 points in each of its five wins. The injuries have started to pile up on offense for the 49ers, though. Deebo Samuel remains out, while Christian McCaffrey and Brock Purdy both avoided potentially more serious issues, the former an oblique injury and the latter a concussion. Kyle Shanahan still has a lot of toys to work with, and personally I would be fascinated to see what he can get out of Sam Darnold, but at least for now, it'll be most hands on deck as the Niners try to regain their mojo. The defense has at least remained stout and still hasn't allowed more than 23 points in a game, and 20 or more only twice, even if Kirk Cousins did light them up for 378 passing yards last week. I'm sure that's nothing to worry about with Burrow coming to town, though. Mostly sure, anyway.

The Skinny

CIN injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries
SF injuries: WR Samuel (out, shoulder)

CIN DFS targets: none
SF DFS targets: McCaffrey $9,200 DK / $10,200 FD (CIN 27th in rushing DVOA, 29th in rushing yards per game allowed, 30th in YPC allowed)

CIN DFS fades: Tee Higgins $5,900 DK / $6,800 FD (SF second in DVOA vs. WR2), Irv Smith $2,800 DK / $4,500 FD (SF second in DVOA vs. TE)
SF DFS fades: none

Key stat: SF is sixth in third-down conversions at 45.3 percent; CIN is 23rd in third-down defense at 41.3 percent

Weather notes: clear, temperature in the high 60s, 10-15 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Joe Mixon manages 50 yards. Burrow throws for 210 yards and two scores, hitting Chase and Tyler Boyd. CMac erupts for 140 scrimmage yards and two TDs, one rushing and one receiving. Purdy throws for 290 yards and three more touchdowns, two to George Kittle and one to Jauan Jennings. 49ers 41-17

SUNDAY NIGHT

Chicago (+8.5) at L.A. Chargers, o/u 46.5 – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EDT

What's got into the Bears lately? Well, OK, a soft schedule has gotten into them, but they're still taking advantage, scoring 28 or more points in three of their last four games. The first two of those offensive eruptions saw Justin Fields throw for four TDs each time, but last week it was undrafted Division II product Tyson Bagent under center, and they still hung 30 on the Raiders thanks to a three-touchdown performance from the perpetually unappreciated D'Onta Foreman. Guy was inactive half the season, goes off when he finally gets his chance, and he'll probably slip back down the depth chart as other backs get healthy again. It's not like he's working behind Walter Payton and Gale Sayers here. Chicago's still in a really enviable position when it comes to next year's draft, since they have the Panthers' pick, so the team has the flexibility to do more than tank if they really want to.

The Bolts also have only two wins, but last week's failure to keep pace with Patrick Mahomes was the first time they'd gotten steamrolled on the scoreboard. Even then, they traded blows in the first half before the offense went cold over the final two quarters. Austin Ekeler had another lackluster performance since coming off IR – Joshua Kelley gained more yards on his 49-yard TD run than Ekeler did in the whole game – but he was also facing two tough defenses, and a matchup with the Bears should give him a chance to get right. The same could be said for Justin Herbert, except the QB is playing through a broken finger on his non-throwing hand and it's still not clear exactly how much it's bothering him. He's completed just 57.1 percent of his passes in his last three games with a 7.2 YPA and 4:4 TD:INT, numbers far below what he put up in his first three (74.4 percent completion rate, 7.8 YPA, 6:0 TD:INT). That decline also coincides with the loss of Mike Williams, so there could be a lot of rotten ingredients in that stew.

The Skinny

CHI injuries: QB Fields (out, thumb), RB Khalil Herbert (IR, ankle), S Eddie Jackson (questionable, foot), S Jaquan Brisker (out, illness)
LAC injuries: WR Joshua Palmer (questionable, knee), TE Gerald Everett (questionable, hip), S Alohi Gilman (questionable, heel)

CHI DFS targets: Bagent $4,900 DK / $6,600 FD (LAC 29th in passing DVOA, 32nd in net passing yards per game allowed, 32nd in YPA allowed), Darnell Mooney $3,300 DK / $5,600 FD (LAC 30th in DVOA vs. WR2)
LAC DFS targets: Herbert $7,800 DK / $8,200 FD (CHI 30th in passing DVOA, 29th in net passing yards per game allowed, t-30th in passing TDs allowed), Palmer $5,200 DK / $6,700 FD (CHI 26th in DVOA vs. WR2, 29th in DVOA vs. deep throws)

CHI DFS fades: Bears DST $2,600 DK / $3,500 FD (31st in sacks, LAC t-2nd in giveaways)
LAC DFS fades: none

Key stat: LAC are sixth in red-zone conversions at 63.6 percent (14-for-22), CHI is 32nd in red-zone defense at 76.2 percent (16-for-21)

The Scoop: Roschon Johnson leads the CHI backfield with 100 scrimmage yards and a score, while Foreman vultures a touchdown. Bagent throws for under 200 yards and a TD to DJ Moore. Ekeler churns out 90 combined yards and a touchdown. Herbert throws for 320 yards and three scores, one each to Palmer, Keenan Allen and Donald Parham. Chargers 34-24

THURSDAY NIGHT

Tampa Bay (+8.5) at Buffalo, o/u 42.5 – Thursday, 8:15 p.m. EDT

The NFC South remains a three-way dogfight, with the Bucs sandwiched between the Falcons and Saints at 3-3. Tampa Bay is trending in the wrong direction, though, losing consecutive games at home, including last week's gut-punch loss to Atlanta — Chase McLaughlin seemed like he'd send the game to OT with a field goal inside the last minute, only for the defense to let Desmond Ridder complete two quick passes for 56 yards that put Younghoe Koo in position for a 51-yard FG as time expired. Oof. Baker Mayfield apparently came out of the game nursing a knee injury, but it doesn't seem likely to keep him off the field for this one. The former Brown has thrown a pick in four consecutive games, posting a 63.2 percent completion rate, 6.4 YPA and 5:4 TD:INT in that stretch, and the Bucs' utter lack of a threat on the ground is beginning to wear on the passing game. Chase Edmonds just came off IR, and while he isn't a bell cow, he has to be an improvement on Rachaad White and his 3.2 YPC. Of course, the one area in which White's been decent has been as a receiver, which is also Edmonds' strength. I hear Leonard Fournette's available, maybe they should give him a call.

What's going on with the Bills? They've lost two of three, but one was a product of jet lag in London and the other... well, OK, there's no real excuse for allowing 29 points to a Mac Jones-led Patriots squad, division rivalry or no, nor for allowing him to put together a game-winning drive inside the final two minutes. Injuries on defense have taken their toll, but it's the sluggish offense that's been the bigger problem. Josh Allen's produced eight total TDs in those three games, but he's also committed four giveaways, and his 7.1 YPA is nothing special. Gabe Davis has vanished the last two weeks, while Dawson Knox is set to undergo surgery after trying to play through a wrist issue since the Jags game. It's not like the team's without options to support Stefon Diggs — rookie Dalton Kincaid is drawing some big FAB bids with Knox headed to IR — but little seems to be clicking. This is still an offense that piled up more than 40 points a game in Weeks 2-4, though, and it seems only a matter of time before Allen gets the engine revving again.

The Skinny

TB injuries: QB Mayfield (questionable, knee), WR Chris Godwin (questionable, neck)
BUF injuries: TE Knox (out, wrist), LB Matt Milano (IR, leg)

TB DFS targets: Mike Evans $7,200 DK / $7,700 FD (BUF 30th in DVOA vs. WR1)
BUF DFS targets: Khalil Shakir $3,100 DK / $4,500 FD (TB 32nd in DVOA vs. WR3)

TB DFS fades: none
BUF DFS fades: none

Key stat: TB is t-28th in red-zone conversions at 37.5 percent (6-for-16); BUF is sixth in red-zone defense at 40.0 percent (10-for-25)

Weather notes: overcast, temperature in the low 60s, 10-15 mph wind, 1-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: White leads the TB backfield with 30 yards. Mayfield throws for 220 yards and two touchdowns, both to Evans. James Cook picks up 80 scrimmage yards and a TD. Allen avoids mistakes and throws for 350 yards and three scores, two to Diggs (who tops 100 yards) and one to Shakir, while also running in a TD. Bills 38-17

Last week's record: 5-8, 5-8 ATS, 5-7-1 o/u
2023 record: 58-48, 49-53-4 ATS, 59-45-2 o/u

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Erik Siegrist
Erik Siegrist is an FSWA award-winning columnist who covers all four major North American sports (that means the NHL, not NASCAR) and whose beat extends back to the days when the Nationals were the Expos and the Thunder were the Sonics. He was the inaugural champion of Rotowire's Staff Keeper baseball league. His work has also appeared at Baseball Prospectus.
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