NFL Game Previews: Buccaneers-Chiefs Matchup

MONDAY NIGHT

Tampa Bay (+8.5) at Kansas City, o/u 45.5
Monday, 8:15 p.m. EDT

I hesitate to say that Baker Mayfield isn't a miracle worker — that Thursday night game where he basically walked in off the street, thumbed through the playbook for a nanosecond, then led the Rams to a win is burned into my brain — but this seems like an impossible task. The Bucs are on the road against the undefeated reigning champs, and, oh by the way, Baker, you'll be missing your top two wideouts, Good luck. Even without Chris Godwin and Mike Evans last week, Mayfield still somehow led Tampa to 26 points thanks to a two-TD effort from Cade Otton, but that was at home against the Falcons. The Bucs still lost that one too, and they've dropped three of their last four as the defense slowly collapses. During that four-game stretch, they've allowed 33.8 points and 438.8 yards a game, including a 500-yard game for Kirk Cousins and a five-TD performance by Lamar Jackson. Todd Bowles was a defensive coordinator, and a very good one, before taking over as the team's head coach in 2022, but suddenly the team is in the bottom five in yards and points allowed. (The same sort of pattern played out during his last head coaching gig with the Jets, which suggests he may not get a third kick at the head coaching can after his time in Tampa Bay is up.) They're still in the running for the NFC South crown, or a wild-card spot, but only if Bowles can fix what's wrong on that side of the ball.

Kansas City still hasn't really blown anyone away this year yet — the team's biggest win was by only 13 points — but the champs just keep methodically going about their business, no matter how many injuries pile up. Isiah Pacheco goes down? No worries, we'll bring back Kareem Hunt. Hollywood Brown, and then Rashee Rice, are lost for the season? It's all good, we've still got Travis Kelce, and we'll just trade for DeAndre Hopkins. Patrick Mahomes hasn't been That Guy statistically since 2022, but he hasn't needed to be. At some point, having more INTs than TDs (8:9 on the year) will be a problem, but that day hasn't arrived yet. The KC defense has been elite against the run but only OK against the pass, so another trade to beef up the secondary seems plausible, and a Week 11 trip to Buffalo is a serious obstacle to an undefeated season. Until someone steps up though, a three-peat seems to look more and more plausible with each passing week.

Key Info

TB injuries: RB Bucky Irving (questionable, toe), WR Mike Evans (out, hamstring), WR Sterling Shepard (questionable, hamstring), LB Lavonte David (questionable, ankle), S Antoine Winfield (questionable, foot)
KC injuries: RB Isiah Pacheco (IR, lower leg), WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (questionable, hamstring)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
TB DFS targets: none
KC DFS targets: Travis Kelce

TB DFS fades: Sterling Shepard
KC DFS fades: none

Weather notes: 70-99 percent chance of rain 

The Scoop

Tucker leads the TB backfield with 60 yards and a touchdown. Baker Mayfield throws for 240 yards. Kareem Hunt collects 80 scrimmage yards and a TD. Patrick Mahomes throws for 280 yards and two scores, finding Kelce and Xavier Worthy. Kansas City 24-13

EARLY SUNDAY

Dallas (+3) at Atlanta, o/u 51.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Technically, the Cowboys' season isn't over yet. At 3-4 they're still one hot streak away from being in the mix for the NFC East title, and/or catching whichever NFC North club is bringing up the rear in the wild-card chase. This team really doesn't seem capable of a hot streak, though. Of its four losses, two were embarrassing blowouts and two were on their way to being embarrassing blowouts until the other team let up and Dak Prescott grabbed some meaningless points in garbage time. The team has no ground game, no pass rush until Micah Parsons gets healthy and no reliable receiving threats outside of CeeDee Lamb. Dallas could be without its top two corners this week as well. The Cowboys don't even have any healthy veterans they could plausible peddle at the deadline, not that I would expect Jerry Jones to recognize that it's already time to look ahead to next season.

The Falcons suddenly find themselves in the driver's seat for the NFC South crown. The Panthers were never competitive, the Saints crashed hard and now the Bucs are getting hit hard by injuries. Atlanta's also won four of its last five, though that inexplicable home collapse against Seattle a couple weeks ago makes it tough to trust it to run away with the division. Kirk Cousins has an 8:1 TD:INT in two games against Tampa Bay, and a 6:6 ratio in six games against the rest of the league, but this might be his best chance yet to prove he can light up another secondary. (Yeah, he's faced Carolina once, but Bijan Robinson and the backfield did most of the work.) Kyle Pitts is in the same boat — he has an 11-179-2 line on 13 targets against the Bucs, and 18-240-1 on 29 targets against everyone else. His usage has been weird, frankly — he had his best game of the season last week, but ran a season-low 16 routes — but OC Zac Robinson seems to be figuring out how to get the most out of him.

Key Info

DAL injuries: WR Brandin Cooks (IR, knee), EDGE Micah Parsons (out, ankle), EDGE DeMarcus Lawrence (IR, foot), LB Eric Kendricks (questionable, shoulder), CB Trevon Diggs (questionable, calf), CB DaRon Bland (out, foot)
ATL injuries: LB Troy Andersen (questionable, knee)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
DAL DFS targets: none
ATL DFS targets: Bijan Robinson, Ray-Ray McCloud

DAL DFS fades: Jalen Tolbert
ATL DFS fades: none

Weather notes: indoors

The Scoop

Rico Dowdle leads the DAL backfield with 50 yards. Prescott throws for 270 yards and three scores, finding Lamb (who tops 100 yards) twice and Jake Ferguson once. Robinson piles up 120 scrimmage yards and two TDs. Cousins throws for 330 yards and three touchdowns, one each to Drake London, Darnell Mooney and McCloud. Falcons 41-24

Denver (+9.5) at Baltimore, o/u 46.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Broncos have, somehow, won five of their last six games, taking advantage of a soft schedule to make some real noise. A 10-9 squeaker over the Jets aside, the wins have all been fairly easy too — they thumped the Bucs, Raiders, Saints and Panthers by at least two touchdowns each, and Denver's plus-53 point differential this season is fifth in the NFL, ahead of the likes of Kansas City, Minnesota and ... Baltimore. I'm not sure even Broncos fans would claim they're a more legit Super Bowl contender, but the numbers be what they be. Bo Nix has accounted for nine total TDs over the last four games (seven passing, two running) against only one INT, and it's the latter that probably makes Sean Payton happiest. If the rookie QB keeps avoiding big mistakes, the Broncos' defense has been good enough to make the team's modest offensive output work.

The Ravens have an identical 5-3 record, but they haven't simply been feasting on also-rans. They've taken down division leaders in the Bills and Commanders, plus a couple teams that were supposed to be better than they are in the Bengals and Cowboys. Derrick Henry continues to rumble toward history, and he's on pace to record only the ninth 2,000-yard rushing season ever in the NFL — and become the first player to ever do it twice. Henry's success has made Lamar Jackson's job a lot easier, and over the last five games he's posted a 67.8 percent completion rate, 14:1 TD:INT and 9.6 YPA. You know, the kind of stats you'd expect from an MVP. The addition of Diontae Johnson won't hurt either, and while I'm not sure he's actually a huge upgrade on Rashod Bateman, they got him dirt cheap, essentially flipping a late fifth-round pick next year for an early sixth-rounder. (Seriously, depending on how many free-agent compensation picks there are tacked onto the end of the fifth round, Carolina might only move up about 10 spots or so. It was an embarrassingly bad trade given the WR market.) The Ravens need a lot more help on the defensive side of the ball, but they've got until Tuesday to cut another deal or two.

Key Info

DEN injuries: WR Josh Reynolds (IR, finger)
BAL injuries: RB Keaton Mitchell (PUP, knee)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
DEN DFS targets: Courtland Sutton
BAL DFS targets: none

DEN DFS fades: none
BAL DFS fades: Mark Andrews/Isaiah Likely

Weather notes: no weather concerns 

The Scoop

Javonte Williams is held to 40 yards. Bo Nix throws for 230 yards and two TDs, one each to Sutton and Lucas Krull. Derrick Henry romps for 150 yards and two touchdowns. Lamar Jackson throws for 260 yards and a score to Zay Flowers while also running in a TD of his own. Ravens 31-20

Miami (+6) at Buffalo, o/u 49.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Turns out, getting Tua Tagovailoa back didn't cure what ailed the Dolphins. They blew a nine-point lead in the fourth quarter last week against the Cardinals, dropping them to 2-5, and the AFC East title is a pipe dream at this point. A wild-card berth is only slightly more plausible. The 27 points Miami generated last week was a season high, though, which offers some kind of hope, at least. The secondary has been surprisingly stingy — no team has allowed fewer passing TDs so far — but it'll be missing slot corner Kader Kohou and safety Jevon Holland, and overall it's been statistically sort of meh. Unless Jordan Poyer puts together a revenge game, this could be a regression spot for the unit, especially considering the recent history of this rivalry. Buffalo's won five consecutive meetings and 12 of the last 13, and during that five-game streak, the Bills have scored an average of 33.2 points, including a 31-10 victory in Week 2.

The Bills have the division on lock at 6-2 — no other AFC East team has more than two wins — which puts them in the enviable, and somewhat rare, position of being able to confidently plan for the playoffs in early November. The front office has already brought in Amari Cooper, and a trade for someone to bolster the secondary wouldn't be a surprise. Matt Milano is expected back at some point as well. The team's fortunes still revolve around Josh Allen, though, and the QB could be playing with an extra chip on his shoulder this week after seeing his streak of pass attempts without an interception end at a club-record 301. The Bills have scored 30-plus points five times already, tying the Bucs for the NFL lead, and only the Lions have a better point differential on the year.

Key Info

MIA injuries: EDGE Bradley Chubb (PUP, knee)
BUF injuries: WR Amari Cooper (questionable, wrist), LB Matt Milano (IR, biceps)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
MIA DFS targets: none
BUF DFS targets: Amari Cooper

MIA DFS fades: none
BUF DFS fades: none

Weather notes: 1-10 percent chance of rain 

The Scoop

De'Von Achane manages 70 scrimmage yards. Tua Tagovailoa throws for less than 200 yards but does find Tyreek Hill for a score. James Cook gains 120 combined yards and a touchdown, while Ray Davis also picks up a TD. Josh Allen throws for 310 yards and three scores, two to Cooper (who tops 100 yards) and one to Keon Coleman. Bills 42-13 

New Orleans at Carolina (+7), o/u 43.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Saints' losing streak stands at six games, and the offense that looked unstoppable in September closed out October by scoring a combined 18 points in its last two games. Getting Derek Carr back this week will help, but things were going off the rails before he got hurt, and since then Rashid Shaheed was lost for the season. New Orleans also hasn't allowed fewer than 26 points since Week 3, though facing the Panthers should provide a short-term fix for the issues on both sides of the ball. The Saints' defense could still be in big trouble, though, as it'll be without its top three boundary corners. If Bryce Young is ever going to have a breakout game, this seems like the spot for it.

Diontae Johnson is gone. Chuba Hubbard could be next — the team keeps leaking that they don't want to trade him, but they also keep holding off activating Jonathon Brooks so Hubbard gets every chance to improve his market value rather than falling into a timeshare with the rookie. Adam Thielen, Jadeveon Clowney, even Jaycee Horn ... this roster could be stripped down to the studs by Tuesday. Young is coming off his best performance of the season, but he still threw two picks, and the gap between his production and his draft pedigree remains huge. There have been little glimmers of things that offer hope, such as the emergence of undrafted rookie Jalen Coker, but they are few and far between for the Panthers.

Key Info

NO injuries: RB Jamaal Williams (doubtful, groin), RB Kendre Miller (out, hamstring), WR Bub Means (out, ankle), WR Cedrick Wilson (questionable, hip)
CAR injuries: RB Jonathon Brooks (NFI, knee), WR Xavier Legette (questionable, toe), WR Adam Thielen (IR, hamstring), EDGE D.J. Wonnum (PUP, quadriceps)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
NO DFS targets: Derek Carr, Alvin Kamara, Juwan Johnson
CAR DFS targets: Chuba Hubbard

NO DFS fades: none
CAR DFS fades: Xavier Legette

Weather notes: no weather concerns 

The Scoop

Kamara churns out 120 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Carr throws for 270 yards and two scores, one each to Chris Olave (who tops 100 yards) and Johnson. Hubbard grinds out 50 yards. Bryce Young throws for less than 200 yards but does find Jalen Coker for a TD. Saints 27-13 

Las Vegas (+7.5) at Cincinnati, o/u 46.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Raiders have lost four consecutive games, plummeting to the bottom of an AFC West that's been shockingly respectable otherwise. Vegas hasn't scored more than 20 points in five straight games and six of eight this year, and it hasn't mattered much who was under center, or whether Davante Adams was around. Apparently Luke Getsy, who ran a below-average offense in Chicago the last two seasons, may not have been the best choice as OC, though, to be fair, he doesn't have a lot to work with aside from Brock Bowers. Gardner Minshew will be under center for the time being, and who knows if Aidan O'Connell will get another look once he's healthy. The defense is also pretty unimpressive around Maxx Crosby, who is somehow averaging about a sack a game despite the lack of help he's getting. Crosby's probably not going anywhere, but the Raiders are another team that could see an exodus off the roster before Tuesday.

The Bengals should probably be sellers too, but they might not admit it in time. At 3-5, Cincy's still in the wild-card picture — the Chargers currently hold the last spot at 4-3 — but this doesn't feel like a team that's about to put it together and go on a run. They got thoroughly out-classed by the Eagles last week, and a defense that seemed to be figuring some things out coughed up 37 points and nearly 400 yards. Joe Burrow is actually having a tremendous campaign given the situation, fourth in the league in completion rate at 70.3 percent and first in ESPN's QBR, and while Chase Brown might be better suited for a backfield timeshare than a lead dog role, he's still scored five TDs in the last five games. Even with Tee Higgins' struggles, the offense seems fine. If the defense can't get straightened out, though, it won't matter, and a quick postseason one-and-done might be the best the Bengals can hope for.

Key Info

LV injuries: QB Aidan O'Connell (IR, thumb), RB Zamir White (questionable, quadriceps), LB Robert Spillane (questionable, knee)
CIN injuries: RB Zack Moss (doubtful, neck), WR Tee Higgins (doubtful, quadriceps)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
LV DFS targets: none
CIN DFS targets: Chase Brown

LV DFS fades: none
CIN DFS fades: Jermaine Burton

Weather notes: 1-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Alexander Mattison leads the LV backfield with 60 yards. Gardner Minshew throws for 220 yards and two TDs, one each to Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers. Chase Brown erupts for 140 combined yards and two scores, one rushing and one receiving. Joe Burrow throws for 290 yards and two more touchdowns, hitting Ja'Marr Chase (who tops 100 yards) and Erick All. Bengals 31-17

L.A. Chargers at Cleveland (+1.5), o/u 43.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

New coach, new GM, same old Chargers. The team is 4-3, but none of the wins have come against particularly impressive opponents, while the losses are all against teams with .500 records or better. Momentum, either good or bad, seems to constantly elude them, and the season so far has been mostly a two steps forward, two steps back sort of thing. If you're a glass half full fan, the fact that they've been able to tread water despite Justin Herbert being at least than 100 percent bodes well for the second half, once he's ready to be unleashed. Ladd McConkey's breakout last week is also encouraging, as the rookie wideout erupted for a 6-111-2 line on only six targets despite heading into Sunday as a game-time decision due to a lingering hip issue. DJ Chark is also close to making his debut for the team. If you're a glass half empty fan, you have a long history of mediocrity to point to — the Bolts have won double-digit games only twice since 2010, but they've lost more than five games only once. They seems destined for the mushy middle again in Jim Harbaugh's first year on the sidelines.

Jameis Winston's first start for the Browns couldn't have gone better, and maybe if Kevin Stefanski had been able to look past Deshaun Watson's contract sooner, the team might still have real playoff hopes. Winston threw for 334 yards and three TDs in an upset over the Ravens last week, but Baltimore's secondary did its best to make him look good, dropping a couple potential INTs and generally looking lost, as it's done all season. Winston's limitations and weaknesses are well known and will shown up at some point, but simply giving defenses something to worry about more than a few yards past the line of scrimmage does so much to help the rest of the squad, from Nick Chubb not facing as many stacked boxes to the defense feeling like their efforts might be rewarded. Cleveland's offensive line is also the healthiest it's been all year. It's probably too late to climb all the way out of a 2-6 hole, but the Browns will get chances to play spoiler down the stretch.

Key Info

LAC injuries: RB Gus Edwards (IR, ankle), WR DJ Chark (IR, groin), EDGE Joey Bosa (questionable, hip)
CLE injuries: RB Nyheim Hines (NFI, knee), LB Jordan Hicks (out, elbow), LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (out, neck), CB Denzel Ward (questionable, concussion)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
LAC DFS targets: none
CLE DFS targets: Cedric Tillman

LAC DFS fades: none
CLE DFS fades: none

Weather notes: 1-10 percent chance of rain 

The Scoop

J.K. Dobbins dashes for 80 yards and a score. Justin Herbert throws for 240 yards and two TDs, finding Ladd McConkey and Joshua Palmer. Nick Chubb secures 70 yards and a touchdown. Jameis Winston throws for 230 yards and a score to Tillman but he gets picked off twice. Chargers 24-20

Washington at N.Y. Giants (+4), o/u 44.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

How does it feel to be on the right side of karma for a change, Washington fans? Jayden Daniels didn't even look like he would play at times during the week, but not only does he suit up with sore ribs, he unleashes a game-winning 52-yard Hail Mary to Noah Brown on the final play. The Commanders have won six of seven, and while the Eagles remain hot on their tails in the NFC East, Daniels' magic has been undeniable. Halfway through his first NFL season, he's second in completion rate at 71.8 percent, fifth in yards per attempt and seventh in QB rating. The secondary is still a hot mess, and Terry McLaurin is still the only really consistent target for the rookie QB, though Zach Ertz has come on lately. Much like C.J. Stroud did last season, though, Daniels is already proving he's just one of those guys who finds a way to win.

The Giants have lost three straight games, totaling 28 points in those losses, and a lot of job seem to be hanging by threads right now, from Daniel Jones up to Brian Daboll. Some guarantees in Jones' contract make a benching possible at just about any minute, but with Daboll trying to save his job, turning the offense over to Drew Lock probably doesn't seem like a great move to him. There are some pieces to build around here even beyond Malik Nabers — Tyrone Tracy looks legit in the backfield — and DC Shane Bowen has a solid pass rush and linebacker group to work with, so a complete rebuild likely isn't necessary in the offseason. The problem spots are big ones, though, and having Daboll drag them to a six-win season or so isn't going to help them land a better QB in the 2025 draft.

Key Info

WAS injuries: RB Brian Robinson (questionable, hamstring)
NYG injuries: EDGE Kayvon Thibodeaux (IR, wrist)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
WAS DFS targets: Commanders DST
NYG DFS targets: Wan'Dale Robinson

WAS DFS fades: none
NYG DFS fades: none

Weather notes: 1-10 percent chance of rain 

The Scoop

Robinson plays and scores a TD, but Austin Ekeler leads the WAS backfield with 130 scrimmage yards and a score of his own. Jayden Daniels also runs for 50 yards and a touchdown while throwing for 280 yards and two TDs, both to Terry McLaurin (who tops 100 yards). Tyrone Tracy leads the NYG backfield with 50 yards. Daniel Jones throws for less than 200 yards and a score to Malik Nabers, but he also gets sacked four times and throws a pick-six to Mike Sainristil before getting benched again in the second half. Commanders 42-10 

New England (+3.5) at Tennessee, o/u 38.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

After losing six straight games, the Patriots snuck out a win last week against a Jets team that might have more problems than they do. That they did it with Jacoby Brissett under center and not Drake Maye was just the icing on the cake — Brissett didn't do anything notable, but he also avoided making mistakes, which is what he's there to do. Maye may not miss a game after landing in the concussion protocol, though, and while the 2024 third overall pick will make mistakes, he also gives the offense a much higher ceiling. Rhamondre Stevenson, who's already tied his career high with five rushing TDs on the year, can punch in short scores no matter who's under center. The New England defense seems to be regressing, though, giving up nearly 32 points a game the last three weeks, which is a problem when the offense's high-water mark is the 25 it managed last week. There's a glut of one-win and two-win teams in the NFL, but I still like the Pats' chances of winding up with a top-3 pick again.

The Titans figure to be right there with them at the top of the 2025 draft. A woeful 1-6, Tennessee's scored more than 17 points once all season, and that was their one victory. Will Levis' shoulder is still bothering him, but Mason Rudolph obviously isn't the answer in his place. The defense also may have checked out after trying to keep things respectable for the first part of the schedule, and  the last two weeks the team's lost by a combined score of 86-24. Granted, that was against the Bills and Lions, which is a viable Super Bowl matchup, but still. Calvin Ridley at least woke up last week, but with the backfield potentially down both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears, points are likely to be hard to come by again.

Key Info

NE injuries: QB Drake Maye (questionable, concussion), LB Christian Elliss (questionable, abdomen), LB Ja'Whaun Bentley (IR, pectoral), S Kyle Dugger (questionable, ankle)
TEN injuries: QB Will Levis (questionable, shoulder), RB Tony Pollard (questionable, foot), RB Tyjae Spears (out, hamstring), WR Tyler Boyd (questionable, shoulder)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
NE DFS targets: none
TEN DFS targets: Mason Rudolph/Will Levis

NE DFS fades: none
TEN DFS fades: none

Weather notes: 10-15 mph wind, 1-10 percent chance of rain 

The Scoop

Rhamondre Stevenson gains 60 yards and a touchdown. Maye starts but throws for less than 200 yards and a TD to Hunter Henry. Julius Chestnut leads the TEN backfield with 50 yards. Mason Rudolph gets another start and throws for less than 200 yards with a score to Calvin Ridley. A Jha'Quan Jackson punt return touchdown ends up being the difference. Titans 17-14 

LATE SUNDAY

Chicago (+1.5) at Arizona, o/u 44.5 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT

It's not just that the Bears lost on a Hail Mary with no time on the clock last week. That's a gut punch all on its own. But the fact that it wiped out their own comeback — they only took the lead with 25 seconds in the fourth quarter — makes it that much worse. How Chicago responds will say a lot about both Caleb Williams and offensive coordinator Shane Waldron. Offensive line aside, the team is in good shape, though. The last four games, Williams has completed 66.7 percent of his passes with a 7:1 TD:INT and 7.8 YPA, and with Keenan Allen healthy, it's getting close to the point at which defense have too many pass-catchers to worry about between the former Charger, DJ Moore, rookie Rome Odunze and tight end Cole Kmet. The defense also has yet to give up more than 21 points in a game, giving Williams a fairly low bar to clear every week as he learns the ropes. The Bears may be in the basement in the absurd NFC North, but at 4-3 they're still firmly in the playoff picture. They're also the only team in the league both undefeated at home and winless on the road, perfect splits that seem bound to get messed up sooner or later.

The Cardinals have won three of their last four games ... by a total of four points. Now that's efficiency. Last week's bit of pilferage over the Dolphins came after 10 points in the last nine minutes of the fourth quarter, as Kyler Murray put together arguably his best passing performance of the season. The only competition for the title is his Week 2 effort against the Rams, and while it's no coincidence that those are also Marvin Harrison's two best games, I'm not exactly sure which end of that is the cause and which the effect. Arizona's offense has a core four rather than triplets — Murray, Harrison, James Conner and Trey McBride — and that's enough to make it dangerous to just about anyone. The defense has struggled, though, ranking bottom seven in both rushing yards per game allowed and QB rating against, and even with a somewhat light second-half schedule that includes back-to-back games against the Pats and Panthers in Weeks 15 and 16, they still don't feel like a real playoff contender to me.

Key Info

CHI injuries: EDGE Montez Sweat (questionable, shin), S Jaquan Brisker (out, concussion)
ARI injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries

DFS Lineup Optimizer
CHI DFS targets: Keenan Allen
ARI DFS targets: none

CHI DFS fades: none
ARI DFS fades: none

Weather notes: indoors 

The Scoop

D'Andre Swift picks up 90 scrimmage yards and a receiving score. Caleb Williams throws for 250 yards and two more touchdowns, one each to DJ Moore and Allen. James Conner jets for 100 yards and a TD. Kyler Murray throws for 200 yards and a score to Michael Wilson. Bears 24-20

Jacksonville (+7.5) at Philadelphia, o/u 45.5
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT

The Jaguars had a golden opportunity to steal a win at Lambeau Field last week, but instead they let Malik Willis beat them, which seems pretty typical for Jacksonville's 2024 campaign. Things are at least looking up for Trevor Lawrence and the offense, or at least they were. The QB has a 71.9 percent completion rate and 9.1 YPA the last four games, which is a heck of a lot better than the 53.3 percent rate and 6.0 YPA he managed over the first four. Unfortunately, Lawrence's pass-catchers are dropping like flies. Christian Kirk is probably lost for the year, while Brian Thomas and Gabe Davis are both iffy for Sunday. Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby are both banged up too. Lawrence still has Evan Engram, but after that he could be leaning pretty heavily on Parker Washington (a sixth-rounder in 2023) and a bunch of undrafted guys. Considering the holes the defense tends to dig for the team, that's probably not enough.

A.J. Brown has been back for three games, and the Eagles have won all three, with the wideout delivering a 16-289-2 line on 20 targets. Of course, Saquon Barkley has rushed for 331 yards over the same stretch, so Brown's hardly done it on his own. It's been an impressive run for Philly, as it's won by an average score of about 28-12 during the streak, though, to be fair, two of those tilts were against the Deshaun Watson Browns and the Daniel Jones Giants. The defense has been fairly toothless — only the Titans have generated fewer takeaways — but for the most part it's bending rather than breaking, which will be good enough if the offense keeps humming.

Key Info

JAC injuries: RB Travis Etienne (questionable, hamstring), RB Tank Bigsby (questionable, ankle), WR Christian Kirk (out, collarbone), WR Brian Thomas (questionable, chest), WR Gabe Davis (questionable, shoulder)
PHI injuries: TE Dallas Goedert (out, hamstring)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
JAC DFS targets: Brian Thomas
PHI DFS targets: Jalen Hurts, DeVonta Smith, Grant Calcaterra

JAC DFS fades: Gabe Davis
PHI DFS fades: none

Weather notes: 1-10 percent chance of rain 

The Scoop

Bigsby leads the JAC backfield with 50 yards, but D'Ernest Johnson hauls in a receiving touchdown. Trevor Lawrence throws for 240 yards and a second score to Parker Washington. Saquon Barkley piles up 160 combined yards and two TDs. Hurts throws for 320 yards and two touchdowns, one each to A.J. Brown and Calcaterra, and also runs in a score of his own. Eagles 38-17 

Detroit at Green Bay (+3.5), o/u 48.0 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

The Lions' offense has been nearly unstoppable the last month, averaging a stunning 43 points and 374.3 yards over the last four games to surge to the top of the NFC North, but the Lions might finally face a foe this week that can slow them. No, I'm not talking about the Packers — I'm talking about an outdoor game in bad weather. Detroit hasn't played without a roof over their head since Week 2, and that was in Tampa. In Week 9, Lambeau Field could see wind gusts pushing 30 mph, and likely steady rain all afternoon. Say hello to Road Jared Goff. The thing is, the Lions have an offense that can function quite well in bad weather. David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs are quite happy to splash around in the muck, and the team is top six in yards per carry, rushing yards per game and rushing TDs. The defense has also taken a big step forward in 2024. There are only four teams in the league with more INTs than passing TDs allowed, and the Lions are one (with the Bears, Steelers and ... the Saints? Weird.) If there' a favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, it's these guys.

The Packers might have something to say about that, though. At 6-2, they're only a half-game back of the Lions, and that's with Jordan Love having missed a good chunk of time. They've won four straight, and new kicker Brandon McManus booted game-winning FGs with no time on the clock in the last two, which is a good way to build some Team Of Destiny cred. Love saw his streak of 11 straight games with multiple TDs passes snapped last week, and his odds of starting a new one seem dicey between his groin strain and the wet, windy conditions. Josh Jacobs also isn't 100 percent healthy, but the receiving corps is, with Romeo Doubs carrying the hot hand into Sunday's game. The defense's aggressiveness can backfire, but leading the NFL in takeaways is still pretty sweet. It's not hard to imagine the pieces falling into place over the second half.

Key Info

DET injuries: WR Jameson Williams (out, suspension)
GB injuries: QB Jordan Love (questionable, groin), RB Josh Jacobs (questionable, ankle), RB MarShawn Lloyd (IR, ankle)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
DET DFS targets: none
GB DFS targets: none

DET DFS fades: none
GB DFS fades: Tucker Kraft

Weather notes: 16-20 mph wind, 90-99 percent chance of rain 

The Scoop

Jahmyr Gibbs leads the DET backfield with 90 yards and a TD, while David Montgomery gets into the end zone twice. Jared Goff throws for 210 yards. Jacobs picks up 70 yards and a touchdown. Malik Willis starts and throws for less than 200 yards but hits Jayden Reed for a score. Lions 21-17 

L.A. Rams at Seattle (+1.5), o/u 48.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

After throwing only three TDs through the first six games, Matthew Stafford broke out for four scores in last week's resounding win over the Vikings. Funny how getting Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua back woke him up like that. The Rams are only 3-4 and in the NFC West basement, but nobody in the division has more than four wins, so that's really just cosmetic. The Cards and Seahawks both have warts and the Niners can't stay healthy, so the Rams have as good a chance as any of the four to come out on top. Kyren Williams has been the linchpin of the offense, though, in a way no RB has been for the team since Todd Gurley's peak. Williams has gotten into the end zone in every game this season, 10 TDs in seven contests, and only Derrick Henry has cashed in more often (and he's had an extra game to do it). The defense remains a work in progress, but the Rams are actually second in the league in pressure rate, even if it isn't resulting in consistent sacks yet.

The 4-4 Seahawks are one of the teams a sliver ahead of the Rams, but recent history in the rivalry has mostly favored Sean McVay's squad — Seattle's won just three of the last 10 meetings. The Hawks have also dropped four of their last five this season, including a baffling three straight at home. Geno Smith hasn't chucked the ball up quite as much the last couple weeks, and his numbers in general have started to slide — during the five-game swoon he's got a 65.9 percent completion rate, a 5:4 TD:INT and a 6.9 YPA. Being without DK Metcalf again this week just compounds his problems. The team's also cut down Kenneth Walker's workload in an effort to keep him healthy, and while he's not exactly in a timeshare with Zach Charbonnet, he only saw 13 touches last week. Seattle's early success this season looks very much like a product of their schedule not their talent, and the closest thing they have to a soft matchup the rest of the way is the Jets. I don't like their odds of staying in the playoff picture.

Key Info

LAR injuries: WR Puka Nacua (questionable, knee), WR Jordan Whittington (questionable, shoulder), TE Tyler Higbee (PUP, knee), LB Troy Reeder (IR, hamstring), S Kamren Curl (questionable, knee)
SEA injuries: WR DK Metcalf (out, knee), LB Ernest Jones (out, neck), S Rayshawn Jenkins (IR, hand)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
LAR DFS targets: none
SEA DFS targets: AJ Barner

LAR DFS fades: none
SEA DFS fades: none

Weather notes: 30-40 percent chance of rain 

The Scoop

Kyren Williams collects 90 scrimmage yards and a score. Matthew Stafford throws for 250 yards and two TDs, finding Cooper Kupp and Demarcus Robinson. Kenneth Walker manages 60 combined yards. Geno Smith throws for 280 yards and three touchdowns, one each to Barner, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Seahawks 24-20 

SUNDAY NIGHT

Indianapolis (+5.5) at Minnesota, o/u 46.5
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EDT

I have to give Shane Steichen some credit. Despite the fact that Anthony Richardson clearly isn't ready to be an NFL quarterback yet, and despite having key players like Jonathan Taylor and DeForest Buckner miss significant time, the Colts are still a .500 team and still very much in the mix for not just a playoff spot, but maybe even an AFC South title given the turn the Texans' fortunes has taken. The offense is now getting handed back to Joe Flacco, and that's good news for both Indy and for anyone with fantasy shares in the team's pass-catchers. In the three games so far in which the veteran QB has seen significant action, Josh Downs went off for a 24-217-2 line on 30 targets, while Michael Pittman posted a 14-185-2 line on 22 targets. Alec Pierce had two duds and a 3-134-1 game, and even tight end Mo Alie-Cox had two decent performances that added up to a 6-78-1 line on eight targets. Buckner and Taylor are both back in action too, and just in time — three of Indy's next four games are against playoff-caliber teams (or better) in the Vikings, Lions and Bills. Their closing slate is a lot softer, so if the Colts can manage to get through that gauntlet, they might make some noise down the stretch.

Consecutive losses after their 5-0 start and poof, the Vikings are suddenly in third in the Group of Death, aka the NFC North. A narrow loss to the Lions was one thing, but they watched the Rams pull away in the second half last week rather than putting their own feet on the gas. Sam Darnold wasn't to blame, though — in three of the Vikings' last four games he's topped a 70 percent completion rate and a 9.5 YPA, which is truly stunning production from a QB most people had given up on. The offense in general has remained strong, which is understandable when you have Justin Jefferson and Aaron Jones to lean on, and the unit will get T.J. Hockenson back Sunday too. It's the defense that has sagged lately, giving up an average of 26.8 points over those last four contests. Minnesota isn't even dealing with any particularly key injuries; DC Brian Flores just seems to have lost his mojo. Whether that's temporary or permanent will likely determine whether the team is still playing past the first week of January.

Key Info

IND injuries: EDGE Samson Ebukam (IR, Achilles)
MIN injuries: LB Blake Cashman (out, toe)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
IND DFS targets: none
MIN DFS targets: none

IND DFS fades: Joe Flacco, Josh Downs
MIN DFS fades: none

Weather notes: indoors 

The Scoop

Taylor strikes for 100 yards and a TD. Flacco throws for 220 yards and a score to Michael Pittman. Aaron Jones picks up 80 yards and a touchdown. Sam Darnold throws for 270 yards and two TDs, hitting Justin Jefferson (who tops 100 yards) and a returning T.J. Hockenson. Vikings 27-20

THURSDAY NIGHT

Houston (+2.5) at N.Y. Jets, o/u 42.5 – Thursday, 8:15 p.m. EDT

The Texans are the latest team to have their wide receiver room turn into an ER. Stefon Diggs is done for the year, while Nico Collins will miss at least one more game before he's eligible to come off IR. C.J. Stroud hasn't been terrible in Collins' absence, but his 61.8 percent completion rate and 6.3 YPA are well below expectations for the second-year QB, so there's no guarantee he can make do with a rag-tag bunch of pass-catchers in this one. Tank Dell figures to see plenty of looks despite his 2024 struggles, while guys like John Metchie might be getting their last chance to prove they can contribute. It could just mean Houston leans even more heavily on Joe Mixon and its running game, something other teams have done effectively against the Jets this season — they're fifth in YPC allowed, but 17th in rushing yards allowed per game and in the bottom 10 in rushing TDs allowed. The Texans also haven't traveled well this season, going undefeated at home but 2-2 on the road, with the wins coming over the Anthony Richardson Colts and the Jacoby Brissett Patriots. On the bright side, DeMeco Ryans' defense is rolling, piling up nine takeaways and 12 sacks in the last three games, and that might be enough to compensate for any decline from the offense.

The deck chairs have been well and thoroughly shuffled, but the Jets have still lost five consecutive games after choking last week against the Pats, and it's getting harder to find someone to blame who isn't named Aaron Rodgers. (Greg Zuerlein was the next scapegoat up, but he's now on IR). The 40-year-old QB has a 59.1 percent completion rate, 7:6 TD:INT and 6.4 YPA during the losing streak, and adding Davante Adams to the mix hasn't magically turned back the clock on Rodgers' performance. If anything, it's just made it clearer than Garrett Wilson should be the focal point of the passing attack — the third-year wideout has topped 100 yards in three of the last four games, and Allen Lazard is helpfully out of the picture for a bit, removing one temptation from Rodgers' view. New play-caller Todd Downing has also figured out that more Breece Hall is a good thing, and the RB has averaged 19.3 touches and 133 scrimmage yards the last three games. Heck, even Haason Reddick has finally reported, though he won't directly help a Jets' secondary that simply doesn't have enough talent around Sauce Gardner. Poor guy's only seeing about three passes a week thrown in his direction, but Gardner's 40.7 percent completion rate allowed would at least be career low.

Key Info

HOU injuries: RB Dameon Pierce (out, groin), WR Nico Collins (IR, hamstring), WR Stefon Diggs (IR, knee), LB Azeez Al-Shaair (out, knee), LB Christian Harris (IR, calf)
NYJ injuries: WR Allen Lazard (out, chest), K Greg Zuerlein (IR, knee), LB C.J. Mosley (out, neck), S Chuck Clark (IR, ankle), S Tony Adams (out, hamstring)

DFS Lineup Optimizer
HOU DFS targets: Texans DST
NYJ DFS targets: none

HOU DFS fades: none
NYJ DFS fades: Aaron Rodgers, Tyler Conklin

Weather notes: 10-15 mph wind, 1-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop

Mixon picks up 80 combined yards and a receiving touchdown. Stroud throws for 240 yards and a second TD to Metchie. Hall gains 70 yards and a score. Rodgers throws for 210 yards and two touchdowns, finding Wilson and Adams, but he also gets sacked four times and throws another ill-timed second-half INT. Texans 23-21

Last week's record: 11-5, 8-8 ATS, 7-9 o/u
2024 record: 75-48, 59-62-2 ATS, 62-61 o/u