This article is part of our NFL Game Previews series.
San Francisco vs. Kansas City (+2) in Las Vegas, o/u 47.5 – Sunday, 6:30 p.m. EST
While the route we took to get here was a bit unpredictable, a Kansas City-49ers rematch of Super Bowl LIV was on a lot of preseason prediction cards, so it can't be a big surprise. San Francisco had to overcome a 24-7 halftime deficit against Detroit to claim the NFC championship, scoring 27 consecutive points after the break before eventually winning 34-31. Christian McCaffrey carries the offense once again, and through two postseason games he's piled up four rushing TDs and 260 scrimmage yards. He's needed to be productive, though, as Brock Purdy's late-season swoon has carried into the playoffs. The second-year QB hasn't been bad, per se, but his numbers have been a far cry from the MVP-caliber form he showed earlier. If there's a red flag for the Niners entering this one, it's Purdy's performances against elite pass defenses. He did torch the Cowboys back in Week 5, but the Ravens picked him off four times in Week 16, and for most of the rest of the campaign he was facing secondaries that were mediocre or worse. The fact that the Packers held him to a completion rate less than 60 percent in the divisional round isn't a great sign, either. Statistically, the Niners were the best team in the NFL during the regular season, and they come into the Super Bowl nearly fully healthy, with only safety Talanoa Hufanga missing
San Francisco vs. Kansas City (+2) in Las Vegas, o/u 47.5 – Sunday, 6:30 p.m. EST
While the route we took to get here was a bit unpredictable, a Kansas City-49ers rematch of Super Bowl LIV was on a lot of preseason prediction cards, so it can't be a big surprise. San Francisco had to overcome a 24-7 halftime deficit against Detroit to claim the NFC championship, scoring 27 consecutive points after the break before eventually winning 34-31. Christian McCaffrey carries the offense once again, and through two postseason games he's piled up four rushing TDs and 260 scrimmage yards. He's needed to be productive, though, as Brock Purdy's late-season swoon has carried into the playoffs. The second-year QB hasn't been bad, per se, but his numbers have been a far cry from the MVP-caliber form he showed earlier. If there's a red flag for the Niners entering this one, it's Purdy's performances against elite pass defenses. He did torch the Cowboys back in Week 5, but the Ravens picked him off four times in Week 16, and for most of the rest of the campaign he was facing secondaries that were mediocre or worse. The fact that the Packers held him to a completion rate less than 60 percent in the divisional round isn't a great sign, either. Statistically, the Niners were the best team in the NFL during the regular season, and they come into the Super Bowl nearly fully healthy, with only safety Talanoa Hufanga missing from what would be their ideal starting lineup. One more ominous note on the Niners side: this is the fourth coaching rematch in Super Bowl history. In the three prior rematches — Chuck Noll's Steelers vs. Tom Landry's Cowboys in Super Bowl XIII, Jimmy Johnson's Cowboys vs. Marv Levy's Bills in SB XXVIII and Tom Coughlin's Giants vs. Bill Belichick's Patriots in SB XLVI — the coach who won the first game also won the second.
While the 49ers added some drama to their march through the NFC side of the bracket, Kansas City rode its defense through three games, and the first two road playoff wins of Patrick Mahomes' career, to get here. A team known for offensive fireworks has become a defensive juggernaut, and if there was an award for Coordinator of the Year, it should probably have gone to Steve Spagnuolo. KC hasn't allowed 400 yards of offense to anybody all year, with the high-water mark 382 yards by Green Bay back in Week 13, which was also the last game Nick Bolton sat out due to a wrist injury. Since he returned to bolster the linebacking corps, the AFC West champs have held seven of their last eight opponents to 20 points or less, a run that includes games against Josh Allen, Tua Tagovailoa and Lamar Jackson. (Allen did lead the Bills to 24 points in Round 2 during the divisional playoffs, but Mahomes answered with 27.) The superstar QB has tightened up things significantly the last month, posting a 5:0 TD:INT in his last four games with a 68.9 percent completion rate, and he topped a 70 percent completion rate against both the Bills and Ravens in his last two games. At the same time, Travis Kelce has woken from his slumber and helped launch some hilariously desperate conspiracy theories about his girlfriend, posting a 23-262-3 line on 27 targets during KC's playoff run. While the Niners looked better in the regular season, Kansas City seems to be the squad peaking at the right time. For what it's worth, Mahomes has also never lost against San Francisco, adding two regular-season wins in 2018 and 2022 to his Super Bowl MVP performance in 2020, when he led his team to three TDs in the final seven minutes.
The Skinny
SF injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries
KC injuries: RB Jerick McKinnon (IR-R, sports hernia)
SF DFS targets: McCaffrey (KC 27th in rushing DVOA, 28th in YPC allowed to RBs)
KC DFS targets: none
SF DFS fades: Purdy (KC fourth in passing yards per game allowed, third in YPA allowed, t-4th in passing TDs allowed), Deebo Samuel (KC fifth in DVOA vs. WR1), Jauan Jennings (KC second in DVOA vs. WR3)
KC DFS fades: Marquez Valdes-Scantling (SF third in DVOA vs. WR2)
Key stat: KC was sixth in third-down conversions during the regular season at 43.6 percent; SF was t-23rd in third-down defense at 40.9 percent
The Scoop: McCaffrey racks up 120 yards and two touchdowns. Purdy throws for 240 yards and a TD to George Kittle but gets picked off twice. Isiah Pacheco gains 60 yards and a score. Mahomes throws for 280 yards and two touchdowns, finding Kelce and Rashee Rice. Kansas City 24-21
Last week's record: 1-1, 0-2 ATS, 1-1 o/u
2023 playoff record: 7-5, 3-9 ATS, 7-5 o/u
2023 regular-season record: 162-110, 126-136-10 ATS, 148-121-3 o/u
