In addition to our game previews below, be sure to keep an eye on our NFL injury report and the latest fantasy football news. For player usage updates and roster context, check out RotoWire's NFL Depth Charts, and don't miss the Weekly Projections to see how this week's matchups shape up.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Buffalo at Houston (+5.5), o/u 43.5 – Thursday, 8:15 p.m. EST
At 7-3, the Bills are comfortably headed for a playoff spot, but they continue to look up at the 9-2 Patriots in the AFC East and may be running out of time to flip the switch and start playing up to their potential. Last week's 44-32 win over the Buccaneers was a good sign on the surface, but Buffalo committed three turnovers and needed a truly heroic effort from Josh Allen (six TDs, three through the air and three on the ground) to pull it off. It was the first time all year the Bills won a game while giving the ball away multiple times, and they're 1-3 in those games while going 6-0 in games with one turnover or fewer. The run defense also remains a big problem thanks to big injuries in the front seven, and it was Sean Tucker's turn last week to steamroll the Bills, one week after De'Von Achane did it. On the bright side, the secondary is playing at a near-elite level now that 2025 first-round pick Maxwell Hairston is healthy, and in four games with the Kentucky product in that lineup, the unit has held QBs (a list that includes Patrick Mahomes and Baker Mayfield) to 192.8 passing yards a game with a 3:5 TD:INT and a 57.9 percent completion rate.
It would have been easy for the Texans to fold up their tent when C.J. Stroud went down with a concussion, but instead the team's won consecutive games with Davis Mills under center to get back to .500, staying in the wild-card hunt in the AFC and at least remaining within striking distance of the Colts if they collapse down the stretch. DeMeco Ryans' defense has arguably been the best in the NFL this season, holding the opposition to 20 points or fewer in eight of 10 games and leading the league in points per game allowed and QB rating against while sitting in the top 5 in yards per play allowed, takeaways and third-down efficiency against. The pass rush could also finally be coming to life, as Houston's racked up eight sacks in the last two games, five by Danielle Hunter, while Will Anderson has a five-game sack streak going. Mills has a 3:1 TD:INT, 60.3 percent completion rate and 6.1 YPA in two-plus contests since Stroud went down, and surprisingly Nico Collins hasn't skipped a beat, posting a 16-228-1 line on 25 targets in Mills' two starts. This game lines up for Woody Marks to have a breakout performance, however. The rookie is coming off a season-high 18 carries in Week 11 against the Titans, and while he's topped 100 scrimmage yards in a game twice already in 2025, the Bills' vulnerable run defense should allow him to blow past his career high in rushing yards of a mere 69.
Key Info
BUF injury report: TE Dalton Kincaid (out, hamstring), K Tyler Bass (IR, hip), DE Michael Hoecht (IR, Achilles), DT Ed Oliver (IR, bicep), S Taylor Rapp (IR, knee)
HOU injury report: QB C.J. Stroud (out, concussion), RB Joe Mixon (NFI, foot), WR Tank Dell (PUP, knee), CB Jalen Pitre (out, concussion)
No BUF leans. The HOU defense has been stingy across the board
Strong lean: RB Woody Marks (BUF 30th in rushing DVOA, 31st in YPC allowed, 31st in rushing yards per game allowed, 32nd in rushing TDs allowed)
Strong fade: QB Josh Allen (HOU first in passing DVOA, third in passing yards per game allowed, t-fourth in passing TDs allowed, t-first in rushing TDs allowed to QBs)
Slight fade: WR Christian Kirk (BUF fourth in receiving yards per game allowed to WR3s)
Watch: Stream NFL games on Sling
NFL weather report: indoors
The Scoop: James Cook puts together 100 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Allen throws for 210 yards and a TD to Khalil Shakir. Marks also gains 100 combined yards and a score, while Nick Chubb also punches in a short touchdown. Mills throws for less than 200 yards and a TD to Collins, but Hairston takes a fourth-quarter INT to the house for what proves to be the winning score. Bills 24-21
Last week's record: 8-7, 4-9-2 ATS, 7-8 o/u
2025 record: 105-58-1 (.644), 81-78-5 ATS (.509), 78-85-1 o/u (.479)
