This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
NFL Odds Changes And Line Moves
The goal of this article is to look at the key line moves for the week and what they mean in terms of betting. Key numbers in the NFL to watch for are 3, 7, 6, 14, and 10. When a line crosses through one of these, it warrants significant attention.
On the totals side, the key numbers are 41, 43, 37, 44, 51, 33, 47.
There's no better time than now to find excellent sportsbook promos available at NFL betting sites. Bet and Get up to $1000 in bonus bets with this Fanatics Sportsbook promo
NFL Week 11 Odds (Opening, Current)
- Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles -6.0 O/U 45.5 (Eagles -3.5, O/U 49.0)
- Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears -1.0 O/U 44.0 (Packers -6.5, O/U 41.5)
- Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions -4.0 O/U 50.0 (Lions -13.5, O/U 48.0)
- Las Vegas Raiders at Miami Dolphins -6.0 O/U 47.0 (Dolphins -7.5, O/U 44.5)
- Los Angeles Rams -4.0 at New England Patriots O/U 44.5 (Rams -4.5, O/U 43.0)
- Cleveland Browns -2.0 at New Orleans Saints O/U 42.0 (Saints -1.0, O/U 44.5)
- Baltimore Ravens -3.0 at Pittsburgh Steelers O/U 42.0 (Ravens -3.5, O/U 48.5)
- Minnesota Vikings -1.0 at Tennessee Titans O/U 43.5 (Vikings -6.0, O/U 39.5)
- Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets -4.0 O/U 46.0 (Jets -3.5, O/U 44.0)
- Atlanta Falcons -3.0 at Denver Broncos O/U 44.5 (Broncos -2.0, O/U 44.0)
- Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers -9.0 O/U 47.5 (49ers -6.5, O/U 50.5)
- Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills -2.5 O/U 48.5 (Bills -1.0, O/U 45.5)
- Cincinnati Bengals -2.0 at Los Angeles Chargers O/U 45.0 (Chargers -1.0, O/U 46.5)
- Houston Texans at Dallas Cowboys -3.0 O/U 49.0 (Texans -7.0, O/U 42.0)
BYES:Falcons, Patriots, Saints, Colts
Its never too late to sign up at the best online sportsbooks! Use this Caesars Sportsbook promo code for a first bet offer worth up to $1000 in bonus bets
NFL Week 11 Key Injury News
RB - Chuba Hubbard (CAR), Miles Sanders (CAR), Aaron Jones (MIN), Tank Bigsby (JAC),
TE- Sam LaPorta (DET), Dalton Kincaid (BUF)
OL - Tristan Wirfs (TB)
CB - Darius Slay (PHI)
NFL Week 11 Odds Observations
- The highest spread is Lions -13 vs. Bucs; the lowest spreads are Saints/Browns and Chargers/Bengals -1.0
- The highest total is 49ers/Seahawks 50.5; the lowest total is Titans/Vikings 39.5
- There are 6 road favorites in Week 11
- The five highest team totals are Dolphins, Ravens, Lions, Eagles, 49ers
- The five lowest team totals are Titans, Bears, Cowboys, Raiders, Jaguars
NFL Week 11 Line Movement
Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions
The Lions opened as -4.0 point home favorites and moved to -10.5 on November 5th. The Trevor Lawrence injury has pushed this even further to Lions -13.0. As we get closer to Sunday, I can see this getting to the full 14 points.
The total opened at 50.0 and has dropped 2 points to 48.0, which shows the strength of the Lions power rating as the line moved 9 points, but the total only moved 2.
For as badly as the Jaguars have played, they keep covering spreads (4 in a row). If you think the Lions look ahead, forget about it as they face the Jaguars, Colts, and Bears in the next 3 games. Place any futures bets on the Lions now (if you have not already) because the price will only go up assuming they go 3-0 in that stretch.
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears
The Bears have hit rock bottom after their loss to the Patriots 19-3 in Week 10 which has resulted in a significant line move in favor of the Packers. They have scored 3, 9, and 15 points on offense during their 3 game losing streak.
Chicago settled as a -1.0 point home favorite on the opener this spring, but their recent skid has pushed this number the way of Green Bay. The Packers moved to -3.0 on Sunday and jumped significantly to Packers -6.0 and now -6.5.
The total has dropped from 44.0 to 41.5 due to the Bears poor offense.
Minnesota Vikings at Tennessee Titans
The amount of bad teams in the NFL is approaching double digits and the 2-7 Titans are clearly in that group.
The Vikings are one of the teams that show up on the line movement article each week as their power rating has increased the most this season, along with the Commanders. The Titans conversely have seen their power rating drop since the start of the season.
The Vikings opened as -1.0 road favorites and have seen a 5 point line move up to Vikings -6.0. The total has dropped from 43.5 to 39.5, another indication of the poor Titans offense.
Houston Texans at Dallas Cowboys
And the final game of the week with the biggest line move is Texans/Cowboys. The Cowboys opened as -3.0 point home favorites but the injury to Dak Prescott along with the 3-6 record and 34-6 loss to the Eagles on Sunday have shifted this line all the way to Texans -7.5. The total has also moved significantly from 49.0 down to 42.0.
The scary part about this line move in favor of the Texans is that Houston has been struggling due to injuries, especially to Nico Collins.
With Cooper Rush at quarterback, bettors are having a difficult time seeing how they will score more than 14-17 points.
