NFL Picks: Backing the Chiefs and Rams

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Updated on November 11, 2010 2:18AM EST

It was another rough week for me, and no one except Pianow did particularly well. Stopa's still a couple games ahead in first place, with Pianow in second. But take a look at our consensus pick record - despite a poor showing overall, we went 2-1 on those to run our season record to 21-12-1. This week's are the Chiefs and Rams.

Enjoy the games.

	Erickson	Pianowski	Liss	Stopa	Del Don
Ravens +1 at Falcons	Falcons	Falcons	Ravens	Ravens	Falcons
Lions +3 at Bills	Lions	Lions	Lions	Bills	Lions
Jets -3 at Browns	Browns	Jets	Browns	Jets	Browns
Panthers +7 at Buccaneers	Buccaneers	Panthers	Panthers	Panthers	Panthers
Bengals +7 at Colts	Colts	Colts	Bengals	Colts	Colts
Titans -2 at Dolphins	Dolphins	Titans	Dolphins	Titans	Titans
Vikings -1 at Bears	Bears	Vikings	Bears	Bears	Bears
Texans +1.5 at Jaguars	Texans	Texans	Texans	Texans	Jaguars
Chiefs -1 at Broncos	Chiefs	Chiefs	Chiefs	Chiefs	Chiefs
Rams +6 at 49ers	Rams	Rams	Rams	Rams	Rams
Seahawks +3 at Cardinals	Seahawks	Seahawks	Seahawks	Seahawks	Cardinals
Cowboys +14.5 at Giants	Giants	Cowboys	Cowboys	Giants	Cowboys
Patriots +5 at Steelers	Patriots	Patriots	Steelers	Steelers	Patriots
Eagles -3 at Redskins	Redskins	Eagles	Redskins	Eagles	Eagles
Best Bet	Dolphins	Rams	Redskins	Rams	Cowboys
Last Week's Record	5-7-1	8-4-1	3-9-1	4-8-1	6-6-1
2010 Record	66-59-5	68-57-5	60-65-5	70-55-5	64-61-5
Best Bet Record	2-6-1	3-5-1	5-4	5-3-1	4-4-1
Consensus Pick Record	21-12-1
2009 Record	123-130-3	132-121-3	131-122-3	130-123-3	126-127-3
2008 Record	132-114-10	128-118-10	124-122-10	125-121-10	130-116-10
2007 Record	127-120	118-129	127-120

Enjoy the games.

	Erickson	Pianowski	Liss	Stopa	Del Don
Ravens +1 at Falcons	Falcons	Falcons	Ravens	Ravens	Falcons
Lions +3 at Bills	Lions	Lions	Lions	Bills	Lions
Jets -3 at Browns	Browns	Jets	Browns	Jets	Browns
Panthers +7 at Buccaneers	Buccaneers	Panthers	Panthers	Panthers	Panthers
Bengals +7 at Colts	Colts	Colts	Bengals	Colts	Colts
Titans -2 at Dolphins	Dolphins	Titans	Dolphins	Titans	Titans
Vikings -1 at Bears	Bears	Vikings	Bears	Bears	Bears
Texans +1.5 at Jaguars	Texans	Texans	Texans	Texans	Jaguars
Chiefs -1 at Broncos	Chiefs	Chiefs	Chiefs	Chiefs	Chiefs
Rams +6 at 49ers	Rams	Rams	Rams	Rams	Rams
Seahawks +3 at Cardinals	Seahawks	Seahawks	Seahawks	Seahawks	Cardinals
Cowboys +14.5 at Giants	Giants	Cowboys	Cowboys	Giants	Cowboys
Patriots +5 at Steelers	Patriots	Patriots	Steelers	Steelers	Patriots
Eagles -3 at Redskins	Redskins	Eagles	Redskins	Eagles	Eagles
Best Bet	Dolphins	Rams	Redskins	Rams	Cowboys
Last Week's Record	5-7-1	8-4-1	3-9-1	4-8-1	6-6-1
2010 Record	66-59-5	68-57-5	60-65-5	70-55-5	64-61-5
Best Bet Record	2-6-1	3-5-1	5-4	5-3-1	4-4-1
Consensus Pick Record	21-12-1
2009 Record	123-130-3	132-121-3	131-122-3	130-123-3	126-127-3
2008 Record	132-114-10	128-118-10	124-122-10	125-121-10	130-116-10
2007 Record	127-120	118-129	127-120	N/A	130-117
2006 Record	118-129	N/A	139-108	N/A	N/A
2005 Record	121-126	N/A	127-120	N/A	N/A
2004 Record	124-124	N/A	130-118	N/A	N/A
2003 Record	121-126	118-129	124-123	N/A	N/A
2002 Record	113-136	123-126	141-108	N/A	N/A
2001 Record	124-113	117-120	118-119	N/A	N/A
2000 Record	123-117	134-106	141-99	N/A	N/A

Consensus Picks

This week we have two consensus picks: the Rams and Chiefs.

Last week we went 2-1 on consensus picks, putting us at 21-12-1 on the year. We finished 2009 at 19-23-1 on consensus picks, and were 24-19-2 on them in 2008.

Comments:

Writer	Comment
Erickson	Everything points the Titans way (getting Moss, Dolphins switching QBs), but Miami still has a good team with a good defense, and they're at home... I'm pretty comfortable with the Colts pick, too, sadly enough.
Pianowski	St. Louis remains one of the best values of the season, and they were an easy pick for me here. Otherwise, I hate the slate.
Liss	I love the way the Skins game sets up - Monday night home dog, Donovan McNabb motivated after last week and facing his old team, Eagles coming off a big win over the Colts.
Stopa	I almost always respect the lines Vegas creates - they're incredibly good at what they do. That said, I don't understand Rams/Niners at all. The Niners are 2-6, playing a backup QB, and they're laying nearly a TD against a Rams team that looks like an 8-8 type of team, maybe 9-7 in that division. I think that line is at least two points too high, so I see a lot of value with the Rams... I also like the Seahawks. The Cardinals are overrated, as they've been skating by with return TDs... Speaking of overrated, the Vikings are a whisker from being 1-7 like the Cowboys, the only difference between them being the Vikes edged the Cowboys at home a few weeks ago and got a lucky win at home against a bad Cardinals team last week. If not for the crazy Rams line, I'd make the Bears my best bet... I can't put the Falcons among the NFL's elite until they shore up their pass defense - 7.9 YPA is awful, exceeded only by the Cowboys, Texans and Jaguars. As long as the Ravens game-plan to exploit that weakness, they'll win... Speaking of the Texans and Jags, everyone knows the Texans pass defense has been awful, but the Jags yield an incredible 8.7 YPA (nobody else is above 8.2). This feels like a game that a back-and-forth team like the Texans should win... I like the Colts coming off a loss with the line having moved in their favor... I'll sell the Browns high and buy the Jets low... It feels off that the 0-8 Bills are laying a FG, but they're a different team with Fitzpatrick at QB. Granted, the wins haven't come yet, but their last three games have all been respectable, three-point losses to prospective playoff teams - the Ravens, Chiefs, and Bears. The defense is still terrible, but the team they are, right now, is more like a 6-10 type of team than 0-8... The Panthers is purely a "fade the public" play... Starting Chad Pennington reeks of desperation, and Chris Johnson should go nuts with Randy Moss keeping the safeties honest... The Broncos can't stop the run, and that's what the Chiefs do well... The Steelers are due for a strong performance, and the Patriots have a lot more problems than their record reflects. I wouldn't be surprised to see them miss the playoffs.
Del Don	I was close to making Indy my best bet, but ultimately, I backed Dallas, as that's an awful lot of points in a divisional matchup. Maybe the coaching change helps, and with the Cowboys coming off an undressing in primetime while the Giants just destroyed the Seahawks in Seattle, expect some natural regression.

The players:

•Jeff Erickson: RotoWire Senior editor, 2001, 2008 Staff Picks Champ. Writes the Value Meter. Covers and roots for the Bengals.

•Scott Pianowski: Fantasy expert for Yahoo! Sports, and also contributes to Rotowire.com. 2009 Staff Picks Champ. Roots for the Patriots.

•Chris Liss: RotoWire Managing Editor, 2000, 2002, 2006 Staff Picks Champ, 2003, 2004 co-champ. Writes Beating the Book and Surviving the Week in addition to Staff Picks. Covers and roots for the Giants.

•Mark Stopa: Staff Writer, Writes Working the Wire. Roots for the Bills.

•Dalton Del Don: RotoWire Senior Staff Writer. 2007 Staff Picks Champ. Writes the Game Capsules and the Barometer. Covers the Eagles and roots for the 49ers.