This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
NFL Futures Bets: 2024 Packers Win Totals
Betting team wins, and other full-season futures, requires patience. If placing a bet in the preseason, the payout usually won't occur until January. That said, there are edges to be gained in the betting market. The more knowledge we have about each team's talent on each side of the football provides an edge.
In addition, projecting potential intangibles can add value. Examples of intangibles are teams that add a new coach/coordinator, or teams that made multiple moves to the less glamorous positions on the field. For those who followed this article series I wrote last season, we projected nine teams, winning six for a 66.7 percent win rate. Overall, the series was a moneymaker. This year, we'll look to continue that win percentage.
In this article, we'll look at the Packers over 9.5 wins at -135 odds. These odds, as well as all other NFL win totals odds, can be found at DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Packers Outlook: Offense
The Packers' offense was interesting last year. In the first few games, they had success with late comebacks. Then, for nearly six weeks, they struggled with consistency.
However, coach Matt LaFleur and QB Jordan Love seemed to get on the same page in the second half of the season. The solid group of pass catchers performed very well. With an entire offseason to build on the success of last season, the Green Bay offense may be even better.
With Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks, the team has four different receiver types to create mismatches against opposing defenses. Also, the tight end duo of Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft both showed signs of being effective pass-catchers.
Finally, the addition of Josh Jacobs and MarShawn Lloyd should give the Packers the ability to gain chunks of yardage on the ground, especially when defenses dedicate extra defenders to stop the pass. LaFleur has been a great play designer for years. With the collection of offensive weapons in Green Bay, this could be an offense that continues to improve.
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Packers Outlook: Defense
One of the biggest complaints about the Packers in recent years was that Joe Barry had his defenses playing too passively. As a result, the team lacked an identity, and most of the decent offenses that faced Green Bay were able to light up the scoreboard.
In the offseason, Barry was let go, and Jeff Hafley was brought in to run the defense. The expectation is that the goal of the new defense is to dial up the pressure, so that their solid cornerback group doesn't have to cover as long as they had to in the past.
With the trio of Rashan Gary, Devonte Wyatt and Kenny Clark, the Packers have the nucleus of a strong pass rush. As has been the case in recent seasons, this defense could continue to struggle against the run. To improve, Green Bay will need second-round rookie Edgerrin Cooper to be an impactful run-stopper. Although this is unlikely to be an elite defense, this unit could move close to league average. If that happens, the Packers would consider that a huge win.
Green Bay Packers Schedule
As always, the Packers play six games against their NFC North rivals. Aside from the Lions, the Packers should be better than the improving Bears and Vikings, giving them a chance to pile up some wins.
Staying in the NFC, Green Bay will also face the NFC West as well as the Saints and Eagles. Aside from the matchup against the 49ers, the Packers stack up well against all of those opponents. Moving to the AFC, the South division and the Dolphins are on the schedule.
Certainly, this interconference slate is challenging, but again, this team should have the offensive firepower to hang with each opponent.
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Best Bet for 2024 Packers Win Total
I am going with the Packers over 9.5 wins at -135 odds. These odds can be found atDraftKings Sportsbook. During the NFL Playoffs, we saw a team that beat up the Cowboys and were very close to upsetting the 49ers. The Packers had been getting better over the course of the year. That team we saw in January is likely representative of what we will see this year.
The expectation of the defense making at least slight improvement seems reasonable. On offense, Green Bay looks poised to take another step forward. Yes, the schedule is not easy. That said, this is an excellent football team that can win 12 games. Going over 9.5 wins seems to be a strong bet.
