This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
It was a poor week generally for the staff as Pianowski's 8-8 actually gained him two games in the standings as I went 6-10. Stopa, Erickson and DDD are all tied for last, one game under .500. This week we have a whopping eight consensus picks in a 14-game slate. Maybe we're all buying into the same sharp/square, buy-low/sell-high, back-the-home-dog narratives, and so we all come to the same conclusions. Is that the optimal way to look at things, or can one innovate and come up with something better?
Enjoy the games.
| Erickson | Pianowski | Liss | Stopa | Del Don | |
| Jets -5 at Bills | Bills | Bills | Bills | Bills | Jets |
| Ravens +1 at Steelers | Steelers | Steelers | Steelers | Ravens | Steelers |
| Seahawks -1 at Rams | Rams | Rams | Rams | Rams | Rams |
| 49ers +7 at Falcons | 49ers | 49ers | 49ers | 49ers | 49ers |
| Bengals -3 at Browns | Browns | Browns | Browns | Browns | Browns |
| Broncos +6.5 at Titans | Broncos | Titans | Broncos | Broncos | Broncos |
| Panthers +14 at Saints | Panthers | Panthers | Panthers | Panthers | Panthers |
| Lions +14.5 at Packers | Packers | Lions | Packers | Packers | Lions |
| Texans - 3 at Raiders | Raiders | Raiders | Raiders | Raiders | Raiders |
| Colts -7.5 at Jaguars | Colts | Colts | Colts | Colts | Colts |
| Redskins +6 at Eagles | Redskins | Redskins | Redskins | Redskins | Redskins |
| Cardinals +8.5 at Chargers | Chargers | Chargers | Cardinals | Chargers | Chargers |
| Bears +4 at Giants | Bears | Bears | Giants | Giants | Giants |
| Patriots -1 at Dolphins | Dolphins | Dolphins | Dolphins | Dolphins | Dolphins |
| Best Bet | Steelers | Browns | Giants | Colts | Chargers |
| Last Week's Record | 6-10 | 8-8 | 6-10 | 9-7 | 7-9 |
| 2010 Record | 22-23-3 | 28-17-3 | 24-21-3 | 22-23-3 | 22-23-3 |
| Best Bet Record |
It was a poor week generally for the staff as Pianowski's 8-8 actually gained him two games in the standings as I went 6-10. Stopa, Erickson and DDD are all tied for last, one game under .500. This week we have a whopping eight consensus picks in a 14-game slate. Maybe we're all buying into the same sharp/square, buy-low/sell-high, back-the-home-dog narratives, and so we all come to the same conclusions. Is that the optimal way to look at things, or can one innovate and come up with something better?
Enjoy the games.
| Erickson | Pianowski | Liss | Stopa | Del Don | |
| Jets -5 at Bills | Bills | Bills | Bills | Bills | Jets |
| Ravens +1 at Steelers | Steelers | Steelers | Steelers | Ravens | Steelers |
| Seahawks -1 at Rams | Rams | Rams | Rams | Rams | Rams |
| 49ers +7 at Falcons | 49ers | 49ers | 49ers | 49ers | 49ers |
| Bengals -3 at Browns | Browns | Browns | Browns | Browns | Browns |
| Broncos +6.5 at Titans | Broncos | Titans | Broncos | Broncos | Broncos |
| Panthers +14 at Saints | Panthers | Panthers | Panthers | Panthers | Panthers |
| Lions +14.5 at Packers | Packers | Lions | Packers | Packers | Lions |
| Texans - 3 at Raiders | Raiders | Raiders | Raiders | Raiders | Raiders |
| Colts -7.5 at Jaguars | Colts | Colts | Colts | Colts | Colts |
| Redskins +6 at Eagles | Redskins | Redskins | Redskins | Redskins | Redskins |
| Cardinals +8.5 at Chargers | Chargers | Chargers | Cardinals | Chargers | Chargers |
| Bears +4 at Giants | Bears | Bears | Giants | Giants | Giants |
| Patriots -1 at Dolphins | Dolphins | Dolphins | Dolphins | Dolphins | Dolphins |
| Best Bet | Steelers | Browns | Giants | Colts | Chargers |
| Last Week's Record | 6-10 | 8-8 | 6-10 | 9-7 | 7-9 |
| 2010 Record | 22-23-3 | 28-17-3 | 24-21-3 | 22-23-3 | 22-23-3 |
| Best Bet Record | 1-2 | 1-1-1 | 1-2 | 2-0-1 | 0-2-1 |
| Consensus Pick Record | 6-6-1 | ||||
| 2009 Record | 123-130-3 | 132-121-3 | 131-122-3 | 130-123-3 | 126-127-3 |
| 2008 Record | 132-114-10 | 128-118-10 | 124-122-10 | 125-121-10 | 130-116-10 |
| 2007 Record | 127-120 | 118-129 | 127-120 | N/A | 130-117 |
| 2006 Record | 118-129 | N/A | 139-108 | N/A | N/A |
| 2005 Record | 121-126 | N/A | 127-120 | N/A | N/A |
| 2004 Record | 124-124 | N/A | 130-118 | N/A | N/A |
| 2003 Record | 121-126 | 118-129 | 124-123 | N/A | N/A |
| 2002 Record | 113-136 | 123-126 | 141-108 | N/A | N/A |
| 2001 Record | 124-113 | 117-120 | 118-119 | N/A | N/A |
| 2000 Record | 123-117 | 134-106 | 141-99 | N/A | N/A |
Consensus Picks
This week we have eight consensus picks: Rams, 49ers, Browns, Panthers, Raiders, Colts Redskins and Dolphins.
Last week we went 1-2 on consensus picks, winning with the Seahawks and losing with the Jaguars and Dolphins.
We're 6-6-1 on consensus picks this year. We finished 2009 at 19-23-1 on consensus picks, and were 24-19-2 on them in 2008.
Comments:
| Writer | Comment |
| Erickson | Ugh, I know it's a trap, really, I do. But... even without their starting quarterback, I've been as impressed with the Steelers as anyone else in the league so far. I don't see how they wouldn't be three-point favorites at home here. ... It kills me, but the Browns have a pretty good chance of beating the Bengals outright. This is not a bad team, and they're at home in a bitter rivalry. |
| Pianowski | Carson Palmer's warts are out there for everyone to see, and I don't think the Browns are that bad a club... I'll keep taking the Rams until the value floats away. It hasn't yet. |
| Liss | Something's wrong when there are eight consensus picks in a 14-game slate. The Giants line is all the way up to four now - if they don't cover, it'll be a nice transfer of wealth from sharps to squares. |
| Stopa | If karma means anything at all, the Steelers won't start 4-0 and then get Ben back... The Colts are up against the Jaguars league-worst pass defense (9.9 YPA). I like dogs (wait, that didn't come out right), but I can't escape the feeling that the Colts will get a lead, and Garrard can't keep up. Let's call that one 31-10... The Rams are better than Joe Public thinks, the Seahawks are inferior on the road, and they're inflated because of the two kickoff returns last week, which won't happen again... Let's sell the Falcons high, fade the public, and take a desperate Niners squad... I'm not in love with the Dolphins in what's essentially a pick-em, but I sense I'm going to be fading the Patriots until the lines start to reflect how bad their defense is... I totally agree with Liss on CHI/NYG. I'd note also that the line has moved in the Bears favor even though the majority of the public is betting on the Bears. Doesn't that mean sharps are on the Giants? Let me side with the sharps... The Bills are going to win eventually, and they've played the Jets tough in recent years, usually splitting the season series... The Saints need to blow someone out before I lay 14 with them. |
| Del Don | The Jets, 49ers, Colts and Dolphins were my least confident picks... I expect the Chargers to roll, but I was also close to making the Rams my best bet. |
The players:
- Jeff Erickson: RotoWire Senior editor, 2001, 2008 Staff Picks Champ. Writes the Value Meter. Covers and roots for the Bengals.
- Scott Pianowski: Fantasy expert for Yahoo! Sports, and also contributes to Rotowire.com. 2009 Staff Picks Champ. Roots for the Patriots.
- Chris Liss: RotoWire Managing Editor, 2000, 2002, 2006 Staff Picks Champ, 2003, 2004 co-champ. Writes Beating the Book and Surviving the Week in addition to Staff Picks. Covers and roots for the Giants.
- Mark Stopa: Staff Writer, Writes Working the Wire. Roots for the Bills.
- Dalton Del Don: RotoWire Senior Staff Writer. 2007 Staff Picks Champ. Writes the Game Capsules and the Barometer. Covers the Eagles and roots for the 49ers.
