This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
NFL Betting: NFL Best Bets, Player Props, and Touchdown Scorer Props for Week 14
Last article: 2-1, +1.02 units
Season: 75-122, -58.64 units
Justin Jefferson over 94.5 receiving yards, -110 (FanDuel)
Good matchup for Jefferson this week, as the Lions rank 27th in passing yards allowed, while Jefferson has already covered this total in seven of his last nine games. Also keep in mind this game has a 51.5 total, so there should be a lot of back-and-forth offense in this friendly dome environment.
Justin Jefferson anytime touchdown, -115 (FanDuel)
In addition to the Lions ranking 27th in passing yards allowed, they also rank 27th in fantasy points allowed to WR's, a metric which weighs touchdowns pretty well. Also consider that Jefferson has scored a touchdown in four of his last five games, with the only miss coming against the #1 overall defense (Dallas). Good chance Jefferson scores today.
Amon-Ra St. Brown over 87.5 receiving yards, -110 (FanDuel)
Similar to the Jefferson situation, St. Brown rates as a strong WR1 play vs. the worst passing defense in the league (the Vikings rank 32nd in passing yards allowed at 283.6 per game). Meanwhile, St. Brown has probably been the hottest receiver in the league over the last month, going over a hundred yards in three of his last four games while recording double-digit receptions at the same rate. He should see a ton of volume today, and looks set for another big performance.
Amon-Ra St. Brown anytime touchdown, +100 (FanDuel)
St. Brown has scored three touchdowns over his last two games, while the Vikings rank 31st in fantasy points allowed to WR's. Given the huge run that he's on right now, along with the prime matchup, there's a good chance St. Brown finds the end zone.
Samaje Perine over 10.5 receiving yards, -115 (DraftKings)
Perine is coming off a pair of huge performances while subbing for injured starter Joe Mixon, playing so well that there was speculation he could keep the job even after Mixon returns (or at least grab a larger share for himself). While Mixon returns today, Perine has definitely earned some extra playing time, and he's generally been used as receiver out of the backfield even when Mixon has been fully healthy. Also note that dynamic increased notably during full-time play, with Perine logging 10 receptions over the past two games. It seems very likely that Perine will catch at least two or three passes today, which should be plenty at this low number. Strong play.
Daniel Bellinger over 25.5 receiving yards, -110 (FanDuel)
Bellinger was just starting to break out in the Giants offense when he suffered his unfortunate eye injury, and he returned with a splash last week, catching five passes in his first game back. He should continue to be at least moderately involved, especially this week with Saquon Barkley listed as questionable with a neck injury.
Tony Pollard over 68.5 rushing yards, -110 (FanDuel)
Pollard routinely surpasses this number (doing so in five of his last six games), and now faces the worst run defense in the league. What's more, the Cowboys are huge -17.5 favorites in this game, so there should be plenty of opportunity for both Cowboy RB's today as they work on the clock after building a lead.
George Pickens over 41.5 receiving yards, -110 (FanDuel)
Classic squeaky-wheel-gets-the-grease play here, as Pickens somehow managed to catch only one pass (for two yards) last week vs. the Falcons, with much being made about his frustration and sideline antics (screaming at coaches to throw him the ball). Especially with today's opponent (Baltimore) ranking 25th in passing yards allowed, I would expect the coaches to make it a point to get Pickens the ball today, and it shouldn't take much very volume to get him over this number.
Patrick Mahomes over 17.5 rushing yards, -110 (FanDuel)
Mahomes has been highly effective on the ground recently, easily covering this number in four straight games before finally coming up short last week (on just two carries). He should get some opportunity to run today, with the Broncos being good in coverage, which should have Mahomes looking to escape the pocket probably a little more than he normally would. Even with the matchup aside, I think Mahomes rushing yards are probably an auto-play at this number right now.
