This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
NFL Week 10 Early Line Movement and Betting Odds Trends
The goal of this article is to look at the key line moves for the week and what they mean in terms of betting. Key numbers in the NFL to watch for are 3, 7, 6, 14, and 10. When a line crosses through one of these, it is a significant move that warrants attention.
Now that we have nine weeks in the books, there is a sense of urgency from several teams this week if they still want to stay alive for playoff contention. As opposed to last week, we only have three road favorites this week and only four games with a total of 48 or higher. With each week of the season, we are seeing more injury impact which is contributing to significant line movement.
Latest NFL Week 10 Odds
For more, take a look at NFL Week 10 odds.
Atlanta Falcons (-1.5) @ Carolina Panthers O/U 42.5
Seattle Seahawks @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1.5) O/U 44.5
Minnesota Vikings @ Buffalo Bills (-7.5) O/U 48.5
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears (-2.5) O/U 48.5
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5) O/U 50.0
Cleveland Browns @ Miami Dolphins (-4.0) O/U 48.5
Houston Texans @ New York Giants (-5.5) O/U 38.5
New Orleans Saints (-2.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers O/U 41.5
Denver Broncos @ Tennessee Titans (-2.5) O/U 40.0
Indianapolis Colts @ Las Vegas Raiders (-5.5) O/U 42.5
Dallas Cowboys (-4.5) @ Green Bay Packers O/U 43.5
Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams (-3.0) O/U 43.5
Los Angeles Chargers @ San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) O/U 46.5
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles (-10.0) O/U 44.5
BYES: Bengals, Patriots, Jets, Ravens
NFL Week 10 Line Movement: Seattle Seahawks vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs have been one of the teams that have seen their lines move the most and not in a positive way. This line opened in May at Tampa Bay -8.5 and stayed there until September 11th. It went to -9.5, but then took a huge tumble as the Bucs got off to a bad start and Seattle overperformed expectations. The line dipped to as low as -1.0 and is back up to -2.0. I can see this line getting to -3 for the Bucs before kickoff.
The total has surprisingly not moved much from the 46.5 opening line to 44.0. The Bucs offense has been dreadful at 18.0 ppg (25th), but their defense allows 18.2 ppg (5th). While the Seahawks average 26.8 ppg (4th) , and their defense allows 24.4 ppg (22nd).
NFL Week 10 Line Movement: Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers
The opening line on September 11th was Green Bay -3.5 and it actually moved up to -4.0 and -4.5. But it appears the Packers have hit rock bottom with a road loss at the Lions on Sunday 15-9. For them to only score nine points against one of the worst defenses in football shows how far this Packers offense has fallen. They have lost five in a row, dropping to 3-6.
The current line is now Cowboys -5.0, which is a 9.5 line swing. This line could end up getting pushed to -6 or -6.5 by Sunday based on early betting trends. The total has also moved a significant amount opening at 49.0 and now at 42.5 which is a 6.5 swing. The Packers have fallen to 27th in points per game at 17.1. Up until last week, this Cowboys' defense had not allowed more than 17 points in a single game.
This is the first time Aaron Rodgers has been a home dog of more than three points and it does not seem to matter to bettors.
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NFL Week 10 Line Movement: Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles
Every Eagles game is a candidate to show up in this article because of their incredible performance so far through Week 9 going 8-0 and have a legit shot to go undefeated. The opening number in this game was Eagles -3.5 and it has moved all the way up to -10.5. The Eagles did not cover as -13.5 road dogs at the Texans on Thursday night (29-17). These two teams played each other in Week 3 with the Eagles dominating 24-9.
The Commanders had won three in a row after losing four in a row and lost a heartbreaker at home to the Vikings 20-17 Sunday. While the Eagles dominated in their last meeting, you have to look at a road dog getting double digits with a strong defense to keep this game close and cover the number, especially at 10.5 points.
NFL Week 10 Line Movement: Los Angeles Chargers at San Francisco 49ers
This game has seen some wild line movement that feels like an overreaction to one side. The 49ers / Chargers originally was a pick 'em until it moved to 49ers -3.5 last week. The 49ers were on a bye and the Chargers were an injury-laden team that traveled to Atlanta and won 20-17. The line has jumped all the way to the key number of 7 with a 2.5 move overnight.
The Chargers are a MASH unit right now with too many injuries to list. But the 49ers are not healthy either and I think this line is just a tad too high in a game where both offenses could be challenged.
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