This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
NFL Best Bets for Conference Championship Weekend
Here we go. It's Conference Championship weekend and Super Bowl berths are on the line. We have two incredible matchups set for Sunday and it's my opinion that these are the four best teams in the league squaring off. The spreads for both games are under a field goal so we're expected to get two extremely close games that could go either way. Before I lose you with more groundbreaking analysis like that, let's get to the picks.
Conference Championship Betting Picks For Each Game
|Date||Game Matchup||Week 18 Picks|
|Sunday, January 29||Eagles vs. 49ers||Bengals +1.5 Under 48.0|
|Sunday, January 29||Chiefs vs. Bengals||49ers +2.5; Over 46.5|
Predictions for Conference Championship Weekend
In this article, we'll dig into the Conference Championship Weekend odds along with our predictions for each game -- both against the spread and on the totals.
Divisional Round ATS Record: 2-2
Divisional Round Record on Totals: 2-2
Wild Card Round Weekend ATS Record: 4-2
Wild Card Round Record on Totals: 1-5
Playoff Record ATS: 6-4
Playoff Record on Totals: 3-7
Regular Season Record ATS: 117-116-6
Regular Season Record on Totals: 114-124-1
Eagles vs. 49ers
|Eagles vs. 49ers||Eagles -2.5||PHI -148; SF +130||46.5|
I've gone back and forth on this one all week. These two teams have been the best in the NFC for essentially the entire season (the jury was out on SF for a little but the Niners have left no doubt since November) and this is the NFC Championship matchup we deserve.
The Eagles made quick work of the Giants last week while the Niners were pushed by the Cowboys. My longstanding concern with this Eagles team all season is how they perform when faced with adversity. They led the league in sacks by a wide margin and finished third in turnover differential and that helped fuel them to the No.1 seed. What happens when they aren't getting sacks and forcing turnovers, though? One hand washes the other, and when the defense is setting the offense up in favorable situations, it helps make the offense better of course. Will Philly's defense have that same type of success against this San Francisco offense, though? I'm dubious about that.
On the other side of the ball, Philadelphia will have its hands full with the SF defense that is the best in the league by advanced metrics like DVOA. It'll be on Jalen Hurts to fuel the attack as I don't expect the Philadelphia ground game to have the same success it did against the Giants. Of course, you can't fully uncouple the Philly ground game and Hurts, but the likes of Miles Sanders and Kenneth Gainwell might be in for tough sledding at the very least. It's also fair to question the bonafides of rookie seventh-rounder, Brock Purdy, on the other side, but the 49ers are less reliant on him to be the catalyst and can get by with him simply playing a game-manager role. I'm not sure the same can be said about the Eagles and Hurts.
In the end, I think the 49ers are the more complete team by just a small margin and their depth at every level will result in them grinding out a narrow victory on the road to punch their ticket to the Super Bowl.
Spread Pick: 49ers +2.5 (DraftKings)
Total Pick: Over 46.5 (DraftKings)
Prediction: 49ers 24, Eagles 23
Chiefs vs. Bengals
|Chiefs vs. Bengals||Chiefs -1.5||KC -120; CIN +108||47.5|
The line has moved all over the place this week as the Patrick Mahomes Ankle Saga has unfolded. The image below will illustrate what I mean:
In other words, the Chiefs opened as -1.5-point favorites and that was quickly bet all the way to Bengals -2.5 before settling back at the original line. Mahomes has been able to practice all week and will be ready to go Sunday.
The thing is, I'd have bet the Bengals even if Mahomes was at 100 percent. The Bengals, though a little shaky against Baltimore in the Wild Card round, have the goods to not just get it done Sunday, but to win it all. Joe Burrow and Co. were 12-3-1 ATS in the regular season and are 1-1 ATS thus far in the playoffs with the one cover coming as an underdog last week. They've already beaten Kansas City once this season, albeit in Cincy, and they can do it again.
As it pertains to Mahomes, there's just no way he'll be at 100 percent coming off that type of ankle injury. Movement outside the pocket, extending plays and improvising are all part of what makes him special and while Kansas City figures to have a smart game plan to maximize what he can do in the pocket Sunday, Cincinnati's lively pass rush across the entire front will be an issue. The Bengals can generate pressure up the middle and off the edge and that is going to be a major factor.
One concern for Cincinnati here is the offensive line issues finally coming to the forefront. They were able to smartly gameplan around missing three starters on the O-line in last week's game, and it helped that the conditions and Buffalo's own personnel shortcomings led to the Bengals looking more than competent up front. It will be a different story against Chris Jones and Co. this week. Cincinnati will have to stick to the quick passing game to minimize the pass rush, and I don't think that the Bengals will be able to replicate the success they had on the ground in Buffalo. Therefore, it comes down to Burrow's ability to deliver under those conditions and I believe he can. Give me the Bengals straight up in what should be a fantastic rematch of last year's AFC Championship Game.
Spread Pick: Bengals +1.5 (FanDuel)
Total Pick: Under 48.0 (DraftKings)
Prediction: Bengals 27, Chiefs 20
NFL Conference Championship Weekend Best Bets
Check out our favorite Conference Championship Weekend picks against the spread and on totals available at multiple NFL betting sites.
BetMGM Best Bets for NFL Conference Championship Weekend
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- Bengals +1.5
- 49ers +2.5
Caesars Sportsbook Best Bets for Conference Championship Weekend
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- Bengals +1.5
- 49ers +2.5
WynnBET Best Bets for Conference Championship Weekend
WynnBet has competitive odds for Conference Championship Weekend with the NFL postseason in full swing. The folks at WynnBet also offer a great welcome bonus when new customers use the WynnBET promo code, XROTO.
- Chiefs-Bengals UNDER 48.0
- Eagles-49ers OVER 46.5
DraftKings Best Bets for Conference Championship Weekend
DraftKings is an industry leader in sports betting and has everything you need for the NFL postseason. The DraftKings Sportsbook promo code gets new users a great bonus at sign-up. Here are our top bets for Conference Championship Weekend using DraftKings' odds.
- Eagles -7.5
- 49ers-Cowboys OVER 46.0
FanDuel Best Bets for Conference Championship Weekend
FanDuel Sportsbook is all set for the NFL Playoffs and you can get in on the action at FanDuel for Conference Championship Weekend and beyond. Here are our best bets at FanDuel Sportsbook for this weekend.
- Bengals-Bills UNDER 48.5
- Bengals +5.5
BetRivers Best Bets for Conference Championship Weekend
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- Eagles-49ers OVER 46.5
- Bengals +1.5
PointsBet Best Bets for Conference Championship Weekend
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- Bengals Moneyline (+108)
- 49ers Moneyline (+130)