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Philadelphia Eagles vs. 
Kansas City Chiefs: Super Bowl 59 Odds, Picks, and Predictions
Super Bowl LIX (59) takes place Sunday February 9th with the Philadelphia Eagles (17-3) taking on the Kansas City Chiefs (17-2). This is a rematch of Super Bowl where the Chiefs defeated the Eagles 38-35 on a game winning field goal by Harrison Butker. The Eagles beat the Chiefs 21-17 on November 20, 2023 in their last regular season meeting.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Odds
Eagles +1.5 (BetMGM -115) / Chiefs -1.0 (Caesars Sportsbook -105)
Eagles ML (BetRivers +100) / Chiefs ML (DraftKings -115)
Total OVER 48.5 (Fanatics -110) / UNDER 49.0 (BetMGM -120)
The Chiefs opened as -1.5 point favorites on January 26th, and it did peak at -2.0 but only for a short time before going back to -1.5. The line stayed there until February 3rd when it went to -1.0. Point spreads in the Super Bowl are typically not going to move very much and it takes significant action to move the line.
The total opened 49.5 and it dropped to 49.0 within 24 hours. It dipped to 48.5 on February 1st but bounced right back to 49 immediately. On February 4th, the total dropped to 48.0 (which is a key number) and again bounced back to 49. But this number moved several times in the last 48 hours.
The majority of the bets (54%) have come in on the Chiefs, but the handle (51%) has come in on the Eagles which reflects where the "sharp" money has landed.
The total is not as close as the point spread with most bets on the Under at 76%, and 81% of the handle. The moneyline is right down the middle as well with both handle (53%) and bets (55%) on the Eagles.
Key Injuries
Eagles - WR DeVonta Smith was limited in practice on Friday with a hamstring issue.
DE Jalen Carter has been dealing with an illness, but fully practiced on Friday.
OL Nick Gates was limited in practice on Friday and is listed as questionable.
DE Brandon Graham is listed as questionable with an elbow issue as he has been on IR since Week 12 with a biceps tear.
Chiefs - WR Skyy Moore has been limited in three straight practices with an abdomen issue. They have until Saturday 4 PM to activate him off IR.
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Eagles vs. Chiefs Betting Picks
- The team that rushes for more yards in the Super Bowl historically wins and covers
- The leading team in rushing yards is 41-14-3 ATS (75 percent). The Chiefs were 22nd in rushing while the Eagles were 2nd (179.3 yards per game)
- Teams that allowed fewer points per game during the regular season have won eight of the last nine Super Bowls and are also 7-2 ATS
- The Eagles were 2nd in points allowed (17.9) and the Chiefs were 4th (19.2).
I do not think there is much value on betting the side or total in this game. The props market is where you really want to attack. Here's something to remember; the public loves betting OVER and a lot of the props will be juiced to reflect that. Look for unders on popular players as a way to be contrarian and go against the public.
Much has been made about the Chiefs struggles against opposing tight ends. Dallas Goedert has been consistently "over" in his last four games with at least 4 receptions and receiving totals of 55, 47, 56, and 85 yards. This is also a byproduct of Jalen Hurts not running as much since his injury.
Eagles vs. Chiefs Best Bet: Eagles +1.5 (BetMGM -115)
Secondary Bet: Dallas Goedert OVER 49.5 Receiving Yards (FanDuel -110)
Eagles vs. Chiefs Prediction
The Eagles and Chiefs are two of the most evenly matched teams that have played in the Super Bowl. Ultimately, I think the strength of the Eagles offensive and defensive lines will play out in this game to lead them to a very close victory in the end.
