NFL Picks: Week 16  Early Line Movement and Betting Trends

NFL Picks: Week 16 Early Line Movement and Betting Trends

This article is part of our NFL Picks series.

NFL Week 16 Line Movement Breakdown

This article aims to look at the key line moves for the week and determine what they mean in terms of betting. Key numbers in the NFL to watch for are 3, 7, 6, 14, and 10. When a line crosses through one of these, it is a significant move that warrants attention.

With three weeks left in the regular season, there are still 20 teams that have either clinched a playoff spot or have a 20 percent chance of making them. The majority of the games in Week 16 are non-divisional and five are out-of-conference. Weather will start to become a factor in the northern part of the country for games that are outdoors.

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Latest NFL Week 16 Odds

For more odds across multiple books, take a look at NFL Week 16 odds.

Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets (-1.5) O/U 39.5   

Buffalo Bills (-9.5) at Chicago Bears O/U 41.0    

Atlanta Falcons at Baltimore Ravens (-7.0) O/U 40.0     

New Orleans Saints at Cleveland Browns (-3.5) O/U 35.0            

Cincinnati Bengals (-4.0) at New England Patriots O/U 40.5         

Detroit Lions (-3.0) at Carolina Panthers O/U 44.5          

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-7.0) O/U 40.0    

New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (-4.0) O/U 47.5 

Seattle Seahawks at Kansas City Chiefs (-10.0) O/U 49.5

Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers (-7.5) O/U 40.5            

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-1.5) O/U 51.5 

Las Vegas Raiders at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5) O/U 41.0

Green Bay Packers at Miami Dolphins (-4.5) O/U 46.5  

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Rams (-1.5) O/U 35.5    

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4.5) at Arizona Cardinals O/U 40.5       

Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5) at Indianapolis Colts O/U 47.5          

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NFL Week 16 Line Movement: Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers

This game opened with the Panthers as -2.5 home favorites and moved to -4.0 in July. When the line opened back up it was Lions -2.5 and is now Lions -3.0. The Lions are 6-1 in their last seven games and have been healthy in this recent run. The Panthers had a bad loss to the Steelers at home on Sunday 24-16. The line should stay around -3.0 and could even see it come down a little as people will want to buy the home dog getting a field goal.

The Panthers still have a shot at winning the NFC South if they win out, so motivation is on their side. This feels like too big of an overreaction on the line towards the Lions. Early indications have the Lions as a huge public play with 90 percent of the money on Detroit.

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NFL Week 16 Line Movement: Green Bay Packers at Miami Dolphins  

The Packers are one of the teams that have seen their opening lines show the most movement as they have been one of the most underperforming teams this season. This line opened with the Packers actually favored by -1.0 in the summer and it moved 4.5 points to Dolphins -3.5 last week. It has since moved to -4.0 and stayed there after the Packers' win over the Rams on Monday. Even though the Dolphins have lost three in a row, they were all on the road to the 49ers, Chargers, and Bills.

The Dolphins are fighting for their playoff lives and are desperate for a win, especially at home. The line feels short based on the recent results, but prior to the three-game losing streak they had won five in a row. The Packers have zero motivation at this point in the season, especially on the road and a short week.

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NFL Week 16 Line Movement: Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Rams

In a game with two of the most disappointing teams so far this season, the line was originally Rams -2.5. It moved to -3.5 in the summer, and then was pick 'em last week. The money has continued to be on the Broncos who are now -1.5 favorites. The Broncos are 4-10 and favored on the road, making this almost impossible to handicap. The Monday night result between the Rams and Packers did not have a major impact on the line as of Tuesday.

Either way, the total for the game is where there has been significant line movement also. The game opened with a total of 49.5 and has dropped 14 points to 35.5 which might be the biggest line movement on a total in the history of lines for the NFL.

NFL Week 16 Line Movement: New Orleans Saints at Cleveland Browns

There were not many games that had significant line moves on the side this week, so in looking at totals we have this game that opened last week at 38.0. It moved to 39.0, but then dropped to 36.5, 35.0, 34.0, and now 33.5 which is a season-low for totals. There are only two things that can move a total this much in a week - quarterback injury or weather.

There are no quarterback injuries, so in looking at the weather forecast it shows 14 degrees with 25 to 40 mph winds and a 50 percent chance of snow.

The historical odds archive allows you to search by temperature and wind to see the results of past games in this scenario. Of the 15 games with winds of 25 mph or greater, the total has gone UNDER 67 percent of the time (10-5).

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The NFL regular season is hitting its stretch run and you can keep up with all the action with the latest NFL odds, weekly NFL picks, NFL futures, and NFL player futures from the best NFL betting sites.

For those in Maryland or Ohio, remember that legal sportsbooks have already launched or are nearing launch. Maryland officially launched sports betting in November and Ohio is set to launch on around New Year's of 2023. Stay up to date on the latest offers in your area with Maryland Betting Promos and Ohio Betting Promos.

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Michael Rathburn
Known as “Rath” in the Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) community, he has helped run operations for two prominent daily fantasy sports startups. Michael has taken his insider knowledge and expertise in daily fantasy sports to the content side. Rath won the 2016 FSWA "Baseball Article of the Year, Online" award and was a finalist for the FSWA Best Baseball Series in 2011.
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