This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
NFL Divisional Round Predictions and Best Bets
There are four divisional-round playoff games, with two scheduled on Saturday and Sunday. There is a unique characteristic to these divisional games as they always involve the top-seeded teams, who had the week off. There is an undeniable advantage for these top-seeded teams in the San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens, but even with the rest, they have to fight hard in the second half of games to earn the win and get to the Conference Championships.
There is a consistent trend historically with the home teams in the divisional round as they are nearly always the favorite and by spreads that are inflated because of the public's love affair with the favorites in the NFL and especially the playoffs. Let's look at the history of the divisional round of the NFL playoffs.
· Home teams in the divisional round are 26-10 SU (72%), 18-17-1 ATS (51%).
· Home favorites of 7.5 or more points are 20-8 SU (71%), 11-18 ATS (38%) last 20 seasons.
· Home favorites of 7 or fewer points are 29-15 SU and 22-21-1 ATS.
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Live Betting Opportunities
So, for live in-game betting opportunities look for the Detroit Lions, Ravens, and 49ers if they fall behind and their price gets to -4.5 points or less during the first half of action. History tells us that these home favorites of 7.5 or more points win the game 71% of the time over the past 20 seasons.
· Teams that earned the BYE by being the top seed or before 2020, the top-2 seeds are 49-22 SU (69%) and 33-37 ATS-1 for 47% since 2004.
· BYE week top seeds in the divisional round that are favored by 7.5 or more points are 22-9 SU (71%) and 12-19 ATS for 39% winning bets.
· Teams in the divisional rounds that scored 40 or more points in the wild card round win go on to an anemic 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS (22%).
The only team to win in upset fashion was the 2003 season Colts, who as 3.5-point road dogs defeated the KC Chiefs 38-31. The AP MVP was shared by Peyton Manning and Steve McNair and Defensive Player of the Year was Ray Lewis of the Ravens. The following week the Colts were defeated by the Patriots for the AFC crown 24-14. The Patriots led by Tom Brady and ferocious defense went on to win the Super Bowl 32-29 over the Carolina Panthers and their QB Jake Delhomme.
That Super Bowl was one of the most exciting games imaginable as Mike Vrabel caught a TD pass from Brady with just 2:51 left on the clock. Delhomme struck right back with a TD pass to Ricky Prowl to tie the game at 29-29 with just 1:08 left in the fourth quarter. What has now become legendary, Brady wasn't done and drove the Patriots quickly down the field to the Carolina 34-yard line before Adam Vinatieri kicked a 41-yard game-winning field goal with just four seconds left.
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Can the Packers Continue to Roll with Consecutive Road Upset Wins?
Getting right to the point here; a simple answer is absolutely, the Packers can pull off another shocking upset win over the top-seeded 49ers. Jordan Love is playing his best football of the season and at an elite level. The Packers are playing with house money and as they showed in their dominating win over the 2-seed Dallas Cowboys they have no fear of any opponent they would face right now.
The Packers have taken the ball to start the game and scored on their opening possession six consecutive times. In the divisional round of the playoffs, the team that scored the first six or more points has gone to post a 34-8 SU record for 81% wins over the past 22 seasons dating back to the 2002 season.
Backing the Packers: By The Numbers
The following betting algorithm has produced a highly profitable 11-20 SU record and a 22-9 ATS mark good for 71% winning bets. The requirements are:
· Bet on teams that ran more offensive plays in their previous meeting.
· On the road in the playoffs facing that foe again.
· Priced between a 4.5 and 10-point underdog.
· 11-20 SU and 22-9 ATS for 71% winning bets and the Under is 19-12 for 61%.
The next situational betting algorithm is simplistic and has been highly profitable with a 14-24 SU record and one game having gone into overtime and 24-15 ATS for 62% winning bets. The requirements are:
- Bet on a team in the divisional round of the playoffs that is on a three-game win streak.
- The team is priced as the underdog.
If our hot playing dog is priced between 4.5 and 10 points they soar to a highly profitable 16-7 ATS for 70% winning bets. This second algorithm also tags the Houston Texans as a betting opportunity.
NFL Divisional Round Player Props
Here is a list of one divisional round prop and six-player prop bets I will bet with pizza money. Keep in mind some books are now offering in-game live player prop bets, so if you see any of these at significantly cheaper performance levels consider betting them if they make sense to you.
1) Bet NO laying -110 that there will be a score in every quarter of each of the four games.
2) C.J. Stroud Over 1.5 passing TDs +160
3) Ka'imi Fairbairn Over 1.5 FGs made +135
4) Lamar Jackson most rushing yards +230
5) Baker Mayfield Over 21.5 completions -125
6) Jahmyr Gibbs Over 23.5 receiving yards -125
7) Jordan Love Under 35.5 pass attempts -105
As for the first one, that there will be a score in every quarter of each of the four games, the No bet is quite attractive. The reason is simply that there have been five scoreless first quarters and the home team has earned a 4-1 SU and ATS record. Now, for anyone who likes the Over bet in any of these games this weekend, consider the live in-game Over bet after a scoreless first quarter.
There have been two scoreless second quarters meaning the scoring picks up considerably after the first.
There have been 10 scoreless third quarters in the Divisional Round.
There have been three scoreless fourth quarters.
So, to win the bet all that is needed is for one quarter of the 16 quarters to be scoreless that will be played this weekend and laying just -110 for that betting opportunity.
