Last week was rather uneventful in Survivor. The popular teams won, though the Lions and Jaguars needed overtime. Unless you did something foolish, you advanced. Congrats on surviving yet another week.
In my pool, two died (on the Bills and Raiders). Of the original 451 entrants, 39 remain (8.6 percent).
On to Week 13.
Before picking a Survivor team each week, be sure to consult our NFL injury report and the latest fantasy football news. Also checkout the Weekly Projections to see how this week's matchups shape up.
Ownership percentages below come from Yahoo. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing.
Odds from BetMGM. The BetMGM bonus code gets new players up to $1,500 in bonus bets.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN | VEGAS ML | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHARGERS | Raiders | 49.95% | 512.5 | 83.7% | 8.16 |
| Jaguars | TITANS | 19.14% | 270 | 73.0% | 5.17 |
| DOLPHINS | Saints | 8.27% | 250 | 71.4% | 2.36 |
| Rams | PANTHERS | 6.63% | 562.5 | 84.9% | 1.00 |
| EAGLES | Bears | 6.55% | 292.5 | 74.5% | 1.67 |
| 49ers | BROWNS | 5.39% | 205 | 67.2% | 1.77 |
| SEAHAWKS | Vikings | 4.48% | 537.5 | 84.3% | 0.70 |
| Broncos | COMMANDERS | 1.69% | 270 | 73.0% | 0.46 |
| RAVENS | Bengals | 1.54% | 292.5 | 74.5% | 0.39 |
| BUCCANEERS | Cardinals | 1.32% | 147.5 | 59.6% | 0.53 |
| PATRIOTS | Giants | 1.27% | 375 | 78.9% | 0.27 |
| Falcons | JETS | 0.77% | 129 | 56.3% | 0.34 |
| Chiefs | COWBOYS | 0.36% | 160 | 61.5% | 0.14 |
| COLTS | Texans | 0.30% | 202.5 | 66.9% | 0.10 |
| Bills | STEELERS | 0.15% | 190 | 65.5% | 0.05 |
| LIONS | Packers | 0.10% | 137.5 | 57.9% | 0.04 |
Home teams in CAPS.
We are close to a pot-odds play this week. The Chargers have nearly half the pool on their side, with the Jaguars getting just less than 20 percent. Without boring you with the math, the risk ratio of picking the Jaguars instead of the Chargers is 1.94 while the reward ratio is 1.78. So, no dice.
However, the Rams and Seahawks both have slightly better odds than the Chargers and are significantly less owned. Fading the Chargers with one of those teams qualifies as a pot-odds play, and we don't even have to calculate the risk/reward ratios.
The problem, of course, is most Survivors have already used the Rams and Seahawks. If one of them is available, that's the pick — and root hard for the Chargers to lose.
If neither is available, then the Chargers look pretty good against a Raiders team that is both in disarray and just plain bad.
As for us, we've taken all three of those teams. So, what now?
The Jaguars and Dolphins have seemingly good matchups against really bad teams. Either is a fine pick. However, we'd rather die with a good team than a mediocre one. As such, the pick is the 49ers, even though they're on the road against a Browns team that finally has a spark.
If none of the teams below is available, let us know in the comments who you are considering and we can hash it out.
Picks are in order of preference.
MY PICKS
Seattle Seahawks (vs. Vikings)
The Seahawks might not cover the 10.5-point spread, but the Vikings don't figure to challenge Seattle's tough defense much with backup QB Max Brosmer likely starting. Sam Darnold undoubtedly wants to light up the team that gave up on him, but perhaps if Minnesota's stout front seven (second in the league in QB pressure percentage) forces Darnold into bad decisions the Vikings can keep it close. That's the hope at least. If the Seahawks are still available, this is a good spot.
Los Angeles Rams (at Panthers)
The Rams enter Week 13 as the top seed in the NFC. The Panthers' dreadful performance on Monday night makes one wonder how they ever won six games this year. This game might be closer than expected, but it's hard to build a credible case for Los Angeles losing. How are the Panthers going to stop Matthew Stafford? They picked off Brock Purdy three times last week and still got killed.
Los Angeles Chargers (vs. Raiders)
The Raiders fired their offensive coordinator this week (about 13 weeks too late), but it's not likely they figured out a more effective gameplan in just a few days. The Chargers had a bye week to prepare (and fix what went wrong in Week 11 in Jacksonville) and need a win to keep pace in the AFC playoff hunt. Advantage Chargers.
San Francisco 49ers (at Browns)
Shedeur Sanders guided the Browns to a victory in his starting debut last week against the Raiders. This isn't the Raiders. Expect the 49ers to make Sanders look like the rookie he is.
Miami Dolphins (vs. Saints)
This sets up as a good spot to take the Dolphins. New Orleans is miserable, coming off a thumping vs. Atlanta and Kirk Cousins. Miami won three of its last four before its bye last week. The extra time to gameplan for Tyler Shough and an Alvin Kamara-less offense should be enough.
Jacksonville Jaguars (at Titans)
The Titans showed some fight last week at home against the Seahawks, helped by Seattle seemingly shifting to cruise control in the third quarter. Perhaps that inspires them this week. The problem is they have next to nothing offensively. Jacksonville needed overtime to get past Arizona last week, but the Cardinals have a semblance of an offense. The Titans don't, and absent that it's hard to see how they keep up. However, the Jaguars are playing their second game in a row on the road while the Titans are playing their fourth in a row at home. That might count for something. More important, the Jaguars play the Colts next week in a big AFC South matchup. It wouldn't be shocking if they overlooked the Titans this week.
NOTABLE OMISSION
The Jaguars could go here perhaps, but despite the dangers they should still beat the Titans. Most the remaining games are too close to risk for Survivor.
