NFL Week 11 Early Line Movement and Betting Odds Trends

NFL Week 11 Early Line Movement and Betting Odds Trends

This article is part of our NFL Picks series.

NFL Picks: Week 11 Early Line Movement And Betting Trends

The goal of this article is to look at the key line moves for the week and what they mean in terms of betting. Key numbers in the NFL to watch for are 3, 7, 6, 14, and 10. When a line crosses through one of these, it is a significant move that warrants attention. 

Now that we have 10 weeks in the books, there is a sense of urgency from several teams this week if they still want to stay alive for playoff contention. There are six road favorites this week and only one game with a total of 48 or higher. With each week of the season, we are seeing more injury impact which is contributing to significant line movement.

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Latest NFL Week 11 Odds

For more, take a look at NFL Week 11 odds.

Tennessee Titans @ Green Bay Packers (-2.5) O/U 41.0

Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons (-3.0) O/U 49.5

Carolina Panthers @ Baltimore Ravens (-12.5) O/U 44.0

Cleveland Browns @ Buffalo Bills (-9.0) O/U 47.5

Washington Commanders (-2.5) @ Houston Texans O/U 40.5

Philadelphia Eagles (-9.0) @ Indianapolis Colts O/U 44.0

New York Jets @ New England Patriots (-3.5) O/U 39.5

Los Angeles Rams @ New Orleans Saints (-3.0) O/U 40.5

Detroit Lions @ New York Giants (-3.5) O/U 46.5

Las Vegas Raiders @ Denver Broncos (-3.0) O/U 41.5

Dallas Cowboys (-2.0) @ Minnesota Vikings O/U 47.5

Cincinnati Bengals (-5.0) @ Pittsburgh Steelers O/U 42.5

Kansas City Chiefs (-7.0) @ Los Angeles Chargers O/U 50.5

San Francisco 49ers (-7.5) @ Arizona Cardinals O/U 44.0

Byes: Jaguars, Dolphins, Seahawks, Buccaneers

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NFL Week 11 Line Movement: Carolina Panthers vs Baltimore Ravens

The 3-7 Panthers travel to face the 6-3 Ravens on Sunday with a line that opened -7.5. It dipped to -5.5 after Baker Mayfield went to Carolina. When this game opened back up last Sunday, it was Ravens -12.5 which is a 7-point swing from July. The Ravens are in 1st place in the AFC North and have won three in a row. Their three losses have been for a combined 11 points, leading to this line being so high. 

The Panthers have played better under Steve Wilks and have found a running game with D'Onta Foreman. The Ravens come into the game with 13 days of rest, while the Panthers have had 10. The Panthers have scored at least 21 points in the last 4 games and -12.5 just feels like way too many points here, especially for a non-conference game. 

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NFL Week 11 Line Movement: Philadelphia Eagles at Indianapolis Colts

These two teams have seen their original lines move the most since May as the Eagles have become the top team in the NFC and the Colts have been in turmoil. This line originally opened Colts -3 in May and when it opened back up last week it was Eagles -10. It moved to -10.5, but then back down to -9.0 after the Colts beat the Raiders. If the Eagles/Commanders game ends up being close, you could see this line move to Eagles -7 and probably sit there. 

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NFL Week 11 Line Movement: Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints

Both teams come into this game with similar records as the Rams are 3-6 and the Saints are 3-7 which explains why the number is now the Saints -3 after opening Rams -3. The Rams have lost three in a row and five out of six. Matthew Stafford did not play last week and the offensive line problems that have plagued them all year have not been resolved. The total has also dropped from 42.5 to 39.5. 

This is a shell of the team that won the Super Bowl last year, as they are 31st in yards per game, 32nd in rushing, and 29th in points per game. Now Cooper Kupp is listed as questionable, so the Rams could be without their starting quarterback and the best receiver in the NFL. 

The Saints injury list is a mile long and they are coming off a road loss to the Steelers in which they opened as a -2 favorite, but closed at 2-point dogs. The Saints have lost 4 out of 5 with the last 3 games being very low scoring (24, 40, and 30), while the Rams have scored 14, 13, and 17 over the last 3 weeks. If all of the injuries remain the same, you have to think this total can drop even further to 37 or 38 and still end up under. 

NFL Week 11 Line Movement: Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers were in this column last week as they opened +3.5 at the 49ers and saw it close at -8.5, and the Chargers covered that number by losing by 6. The purpose of this article is to find the biggest line moves and then be able to discern which ones present value. This game much like last week feels like gross public overreaction to the Chiefs' 27-17 win against the Jaguars. 

The Chargers do have a lot of injuries and their offense is struggling averaging 19.5 points in the last 4 games. But they have won 4 out of their last 5. With a +6.5 line at home, you would think the Chargers had lost 4 out of their last 5. Considering the opening line had Chargers -1.5, it is an 8-point swing in favor of the Chiefs. This line feels extremely high and should be more in the -3 or -4 range at the most especially since it is a divisional rivalry game. This is a must-win game for the Chargers.  

NFL Week 11 Line Movement: San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals

This game has seen the line and total move significantly since opening in May. The Cardinals offense has been lackluster all year and they were originally +2.5 home dogs in this spot, but have now moved to +7.5. The fact this game has moved through key numbers 3, 6, and now 7 is huge. We have another divisional game in which the dog is getting more than a touchdown. Regardless of how bad these teams have played, it is hard to pass on taking +7.5 points at home in a divisional game. Especially if you think it will be lower scoring. The total opened 48.0 and has dropped all the way to 44.0. 

But if you look at the Cardinals' scores over the last 4 weeks, the return of DeAndre Hopkins has made all the difference. They have scored an average of 29 points per game so there looks to be incredible value on the OVER 44 here and the Cardinals team total. The 49ers have the best defense in football but I can still see the Cardinals being able to put up points especially at home.

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Michael Rathburn
Known as “Rath” in the Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) community, he has helped run operations for two prominent daily fantasy sports startups. Michael has taken his insider knowledge and expertise in daily fantasy sports to the content side. Rath won the 2016 FSWA "Baseball Article of the Year, Online" award and was a finalist for the FSWA Best Baseball Series in 2011.
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