NFL Week 5 Picks, Predictions, Props and Best Bets for Every Game

NFL Week 5 Picks, Predictions, Props and Best Bets for Every Game

This article is part of our NFL Picks series.

NFL Odds and Picks for Week 5

Honestly, given all the narrow spreads from Week 4, I'm surprised my ATS record wasn't worse. We now enter the bye-week stage of the NFL season, which hopefully means less bad football just by virtue of having some teams off. At first glance, there are a few pretty obviously calls that I have to imagine will shift before Sunday, but of course there are a number of injuries that could dramatically change the lines as well.

Below you'll find my picks against the spread and on the totals for each game on the Week 5 NFL slate. For more NFL betting content here at RotoWire, check out our NFL picks series with several articles dropping each week. We also have up-to-date NFL player props from a wide array of the best online sportsbooks.

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NFL Week 5 Betting Picks For Each Game

DateGame MatchupWeek 3 Picks
Thursday, October 5Bears vs. CommandersCommanders -6.5, under 44
Sunday, October 8Jaguars vs. Bills *in London*Jaguars +5.5, under 48.5
Sunday, October 8Texans vs. FalconsTexans +2, over 41
Sunday, October 8Panthers vs. LionsLions -9, under 44.5
Sunday, October 8Titans vs. ColtsColts -1, under 42.5
Sunday, October 8Giants vs. DolphinsGiants +11, over 49.5
Sunday, October 8Saints vs. PatriotsSaints +1.5, over 40.5
Sunday, October 8Ravens vs. SteelersRavens -4, under 38.5
Sunday, October 8Bengals vs. CardinalsBengals -3, over 44.5
Sunday, October 8Eagles vs. RamsEagles -4, under 50.5
Sunday, October 8Jets vs. BroncosBroncos -2, over 43
Sunday, October 8Chiefs vs. VikingsChiefs -5, over 53
Sunday, October 8Cowboys vs. 49ers49ers -3.5, over 45
Monday, October 9Packers vs. RaidersPackers -2.5, over 44.5

Predictions for NFL Week 5

In this article, we also take a look at NFL Week 5 odds and our predictions for each NFL game. Home teams are listed last.

Week 4 Record ATS: 7-8-1

Week 4 Record on Totals: 5-11

Season Record ATS: 29-33-2

Season Record on Totals: 27-34-1

Bears vs. Commanders

GameSpreadMoneylineTotal
Bears vs. CommandersCommanders -6.5Washington -290; Chicago +24044

I look over the lines twice before I ultimately commit to each write-up, and I pretty easily selected the Bears +6.5 yesterday before doing a double take. I wasn't one to believe Justin Fields and the Bears were that bad three weeks ago, so the come-from-behind performance didn't really move the needle for me much. I also think the Commanders are one of those "good enough" teams that will typically be competitive against anyone, but really don't possess a lot of blowout potential.

The key factor in this equation is the one thing that has changed for me this season -- the Broncos are just awful. I don't think Washington comes anywhere close to how bad the Broncos are defensively, and while Fields is easily better than a myriad of awful quarterbacks like Mac Jones, Zach Wilson, Daniel Jones and Desmond Ridder, he's not good enough to be competitive against competent teams. 

Spread Pick: Commanders -6.5

Total Pick: Under 44

Jaguars vs. Bills

GameSpreadMoneylineTotal
Jaguars vs. BillsBills -5.5Buffalo -240; Jacksonville +20048.5

It really annoys me this is considered a "home" game for the Bills. The Jaguars will have been in London for two straight weeks by this point -- I'm not sure there can literally be more of a "home-field advantage" and yet the good people of Buffalo lose a home game because of this.

To be clear, the Bills are a much better team and in literally any other situation where this game is played in North America, they'd clear this win with ease. But this feels way too much like a trap situation -- a big emotional win over a hyped division opponent, then a continental trip against a gamey offense that hasn't found its stride and won't need to adjust to the travel conditions. I think it's even possible the Jags could win outright, that's how enormous the advantage leans towards Jacksonville.

Spread Pick: Jaguars +5.5

Total Pick: Under 48.5

Texans vs. Falcons

GameSpreadMoneylineTotal
Texans vs. FalconsFalcons -2Atlanta -125; Houston +10541

I'm officially believing in the Texans. I thought the Steelers' pass rush would present problems for Houston, but for whatever reason C.J. Stroud and company have withstood unquestionably the worst projected offensive line play we've had to begin the season (yes, I've painfully had to watch the Giants plenty already this season).

Arthur Smith is also a dud for me. Maybe (on second thought, probably) Desmond Ridder is also bad too, but if you can't figure out how to make Kyle Pitts a thing while Jonnu Smith goes off each week, then it's pretty obvious where the fault lies. The AFC South is absolutely up for grabs and the Texans are +460 on FanDuel right now to win the division. Just saying.

Spread Pick: Texans +2

Total Pick: Over 41

Panthers vs. Lions

GameSpreadMoneylineTotal
Panthers vs. LionsLions -9.5Detroit -425; Carolina +33044.5

Detroit's defense isn't soul-crushing by any means, but it is significantly better than that of the Vikings, who just held the Panthers' offense to two field goals Sunday. I don't know if it's the play calling or Bryce Young, or both. Something just isn't right there and it does make me a bit nervous the offense looked significantly better with Andy Dalton under center the week before.

I'm not sure if the return of Jameson Williams (suspension) does a whole lot for Detroit, but it certainly doesn't hurt. This feels like an easy tease line, and the under is probably one of my favorite lines overall.

Spread Pick: Lions -9.5

Total Pick: Under 44.5

Giants vs. Dolphins

GameSpreadMoneylineTotal
Giants vs. DolphinsDolphins -11Miami -575; New York +42549.5

The return of Saquon Barkley (ankle) and Andrew Thomas (hamstring) won't fix this team, and in the case of the latter, head coach Brian Daboll admitted Thomas had a setback in terms of his recovery Saturday. New York is just a bad football team (you can say that for either the green or blue team) and the Dolphins just ran into a motivated AFC East buzzsaw. That happens.

The Dolphins allow 29.8 points per game while the Giants sit at 30.5, good for third-worst in the league. The over/under might be painfully high given one team has scored a combined 12 points in three outings, but that doesn't scare me off. I recommended it down below, but I'd try to find whatever book I can now that offers the lowest Giants implied point total. I assume Barkley will be back Sunday, in which case that number has to rise.

Spread Pick: Giants +11

Total Pick: Over 49.5

Saints vs. Patriots

GameSpreadMoneylineTotal
Saints vs. PatriotsPatriots -1.5New England -122; New Orleans +10240.5

I think the Saints would clearly been better off with Jameis Winston than a labored Derek Carr, who looked miserable in Sunday's loss to the Buccaneers. This is obviously a gambling-related article, but if that's the type of QB play New Orleans is fine with, I'd trade Chris Olave right now.

With Matthew Judon (biceps) and Christian Gonzalez (shoulder) definitively out and joining a host of other injured defensive Patriots, this team just has lost all its teeth. Sometimes in situations with a low over/under and capable coaches I just take the over assuming scheming and a bit of good fortune will make it work, but I'll admit that premise will really be put to the test come Sunday. I want absolutely no part of this game, but if the Saints have a chance at the division crown, they had better show up for this matchup unlike last week.

Spread Pick: Saints +1.5

Total Pick: Over 40.5

Ravens vs. Steelers

GameSpreadMoneylineTotal
Ravens vs. SteelersRavens -4Baltimore -198, Pittsburgh +16438.5

The Steelers have a bye in Week 6 and Kenny Pickett reportedly suffered a bone bruise in his knee in the embarrassing loss to the Texans on Sunday. I'd assume Pickett won't play, even if he's reportedly going to practice this week.

I think the Steelers will definitely be better off with Mitchell Trubisky starting, but even that jump in quarterback skill (and yes, it is) isn't enough to offset offensive coordinator Matt Canada. I was on record saying the Packers season was already over in mid-February when it was announced Joe Barry would be back for another season at defensive coordinator, but Canada is legitimately a worse overall coordinator. Between Bill Belichick last year and Tomlin this year, I have no idea why HCs with obvious career clout hold on to such astoundingly bad coaches beneath them. If not for the Browns being the Browns back in Week 2, we'd be mentioning Pittsburgh in the same breath as a few others in the Tank for Caleb Williams sweepstakes.

Spread Pick: Ravens -4

Total Pick: Under 38.5

Bengals vs. Cardinals

GameSpreadMoneylineTotal
Bengals vs. CardinalsBengals -3Cincinnati -166; Arizona +14044.5

This game really is incredible to think about. If you could have found spreads for Week 5 games prior to the start of the season, I imagine the Bengals would be at minimum two-touchdown favorites. One Joe Burrow injury and a few poor performances later, and I was a bit surprised to see the Bengals favored at all heading into Arizona.

Most of that credit goes to Joshua Dobbs, who has somehow looked comfortably competent despite the ridiculous circumstances. I keep thinking the wheels will fall off the wagon soon, but admittedly this one was the most difficult to still work with my preconceived biases. 

Spread Pick: Bengals -3

Total Pick: Over 44.5

Eagles vs. Rams

GameSpreadMoneylineTotal
Eagles vs. RamsEagles -4Philadelphia -218; Los Angeles +18050.5

I'm going to be honest; I just don't think this matchup is going to be all that close. The Rams have absolutely surprised me this season. Puka Nucau has been a revelation, the Rams should be getting back Cooper Kupp (hamstring), etc.

But this line is just completely discounting the Eagles, which can win with both their offense and defense depending on the matchup and the day. Weird things can, and do, seem to happen with the Rams' offense so I don't want to include this in any teaser, but I do think the Eagles comfortably win.

Spread Pick: Eagles -4

Total Pick: Under 50.5

Jets vs. Broncos

GameSpreadMoneylineTotal
Jets vs. BroncosBroncos -2Denver -130; New York +11043

I really like Zach Wilson, Garrett Wilson and company to put together better fantasy outings than you might expect, but it sure looks like Vegas is thinking the same thing. Taking the Jets +2 is basically saying "I think the Jets can win a football game with Wilson", and I....just don't think I can get behind that notion.

For the chaos, I sorta hope the Jets do end up winning given I think Denver could just firesale the whole roster with a few more losses, but nobody should even entertain putting money on the outcome of this game in either direction.

Spread Pick: Broncos -2

Total Pick: Over 43

Chiefs vs. Vikings

GameSpreadMoneylineTotal
Chiefs vs. VikingsChiefs -5Kansas City -225; Minnesota +18553

I think there are real cracks in the Chiefs' armor, more than we've ever really seen in the Patrick Mahomes era. The offense is just way too inconsistent and the defense is way too overrated at the moment.

Thankfully the Vikings are like the 2.0 versions of both statements. This is going to be a fun game with a whole bunch of offense, but it'd be truly shocking if the Chiefs couldn't move the ball enough to keep Minnesota on its heels for the entire afternoon.

Spread Pick: Chiefs -5

Total Pick: Over 53

Cowboys vs. 49ers

GameSpreadMoneylineTotal
Cowboys vs. 49ers49ers -3.5San Francisco -170; Dallas +14245

I don't think I've been this excited to watch a non-Packers, non-playoff NFL game in some time. After weeks of truly testing the masochism of NFL fans, this matchup is going to be a real treat.

If this was a playoff game I would easily err towards the side of San Francisco if only because head coach Mike McCarthy has been incapable of winning important games for a decade now. Seeding could be really impactful for these two teams, both in the conference and their respective divisional races, so I don't think either team is going to hold back punches per say, but a Week 5 matchup is going to inherently mean less than a playoff battle. 

Spread Pick: 49ers -3.5

Total Pick: Over 45

Packers vs. Raiders

GameSpreadMoneylineTotal
Packers vs. RaidersPackers -2.5Green Bay -135; Las Vegas +11444.5

I don't think the status of Jimmy Garoppolo (concussion) will matter much for this contest, but I do expect him back for Monday.

The line isn't present now, but I'd absolutely take Davante Adams to score a TD in this one too, and frankly even betting a line like 2+ TDs or more feels really fitting in his first game against his former team. 

The Raiders will move the ball and score points, but I actually feel like the Packers will have a fair bit of offense as well, even with an offensive line that looked as bad as the Giants did Monday night. There is absolutely no way this game will be a blowout to either extreme, but I do think the Packers cover this one.

Spread Pick: Packers -2.5

Total Pick: Over 44.5

NFL Week 5 Best Bets

Next, we take a look at our favorite Week 5 NFL best bets at the best NFL betting sites. We went 2-12 in best bets last week. It was about as miserable as it gets, particularly with a few of the money-line calls that felt 50-50. We're on to Week 5. While I'm obligated to pick against the spread above, the best bets section highlights my favorite leans and also tries to take advantage of a few of the parlay props offered as of this writing.

BetMGM Best Bets for NFL Week 5

BetMGM offers some of the best odds available for Week 5. If you're not signed up at BetMGM yet, new players at BetMGM can use the BetMGM bonus code ROTOBONUS for a risk-free bet worth up to $1,000. Here are our NFL best bets for Week 3 at BetMGM.

  • Commanders and Bengals moneyline parlay (+121)
  • Bills/Jaguars under 49 points (-110)

Caesars Sportsbook Best Bets for NFL Week 5

Caesars Sportsbook also has great betting odds for NFL Week 5. If you are not registered yet, use the Caesars Sportsbook promo code ROTOFULL for a first bet on Caesars.

  • Scary Terry boost -- 69.5+ receiving yards and TD (+375)

WynnBET Best Bets for NFL Week 5

WynnBet has a strong menu of NFL Week 5 wagers to choose from, along with competitive odds. Sign up with the WynnBET promo code XROTO for up to $100 in free bets if you have yet to register at WynnBet.

  • Lions (-3), Raiders (+9), Ravens (+3) three-team teaser (+130)
  • Jaguars first-quarter result (+188) or draw (+350)

DraftKings Best Bets for NFL Week 5

 DraftKings Sportsbook has special offers for new users just in time for Week 5 of the NFL season. here are our best picks available at DraftKings Sportsbook this week.

  • Under 16.5 points for the Panthers (+105)
  • Josh Jacobs +125 combined yards and 1+ rushing TD (+400) -- Weekly Specials
  • Davante Adams and Romeo Doubs combine for 15+ receptions (+600) -- Weekly Specials

FanDuel Best Bets for NFL Week 5

One of the most popular sportsbooks available is FanDuel Sportsbook. Let's take a look at our favorite betting picks with FanDuel odds.

  • Lions moneyline (-420) or ATS (8.5, -110)
  • Eagles moneyline (-215)
  • Dolphins (-4), Ravens (+3), Over 35 points HOU/ATL, Lions (-2) four-team teaser (+200)

BetRivers Best Bets for NFL Week 5

BetRivers is an up-and-coming and underrated sportsbook, and they are offering up to $500 in second-chance bets with the BetRivers bonus code. Bettors can use those for these picks on NFL Week 5.

  • Under 44 between CHI/WAS (-113)

PointsBet Best Bets for NFL Week 5

For bettors looking for a unique way to wager, try the PointsBet promo code for our Week 5 NFL picks. You can try "PointsBetting" for Week 5 to maximize your return.

  • Bills moneyline (-240)

Look ahead at the NFL Week 6 odds as well, if you're interested in getting ahead of the line movement.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Joe Bartel
Joe Bartel is RotoWire's Operations Specialist and football contributor among many other things. When not at the office, he's probably playing a variety of Gen 4 console games or rooting on his beloved Green Bay Packers.
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