This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
NFL Futures Bets: 2024 Commanders' Win Totals
Betting team wins, and other full-season futures, requires patience. If placing a bet in the preseason, the payout usually won't occur until January. That said, there are edges to be gained in the betting market. The more knowledge we have about each team's talent on each side of the football provides an edge.
In addition, projecting potential intangibles can add value. Examples of intangibles are teams that add a new coach/coordinator or make multiple moves to the less glamorous positions on the field. For those who followed this article series I wrote last season, we projected nine teams, winning six for a 66.7 percent win rate. Overall, the series was a moneymaker. This year, we'll look to continue that win percentage.
In this article, we'll look at the Commanders under 6.5 wins at +110 odds. These odds, as well as all other NFL win totals odds, can be found at DraftKings sportsbook.
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Commanders Outlook: Offense
After being a mess on offense for much of the 2023 season, the Commanders made some big changes. The main addition was when the team used the second pick in the draft to select quarterback Jayden Daniels. Obviously, a team is excited when selecting what they believe to be a franchise player. However, in Daniels' first four years of college, he never surpassed 17 touchdown passes in a season. Then, at 22 years old, the LSU product threw 40 scoring strikes.
One of two things happened. Either Daniels magically figured everything out, or he was simply an experienced man playing against boys.
Also, the rookie is an excellent runner. However, at 210 pounds while never shying away from contact, if that style continues, it may be a painful year for the rookie. The next addition was the team adding an aging Austin Ekeler to the backfield. Last year, the veteran was still a great receiver, but he appeared to be in steep decline as a runner. Regardless, Ekeler will likely be paired with Brian Robinson, so together, the duo may be fine. At tight end, Washington drafted Ben Sinnott out of Kansas. Although we've seen young tight ends play well recently, don't be surprised if Sinnott takes some time to develop.
Finally, the team brought in Kliff Kingsbury to run the offense. Although Kyler Murray had some success in Arizona with the coach, many considered Kinsgbury's time with the Cardinals a failure. The lone reliable skill-position player is Terry McLaurin. Overall, there are far too many questions to make it appear that the Commanders will have an offense in the top 20.
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Commanders Outlook: Defense
On the surface, bringing in Dan Quinn as a head coach who will run the defense looks great. Also, the organization brought in a number of players who will be able to set a new culture in Washington.
The problem remains that this is a team that is likely to struggle to stop opposing offenses from passing the ball. The cornerback trio of Emmanuel Forbes, Benjamin St-Juste and Michael Davis may be one of the weaker groups in the league. Also, after trading away edge defenders Chase Young and Montez Sweat last year, the odds of the Commanders having a strong pass rush seem remote. Sure, adding Bobby Wagner and Frankie Luvu to improve the run defense looks good on paper, teams will likely look to attack this defense through the air. That should lead to opposing quarterbacks having big performances.
Schedule
The AFC teams on the schedule are the North division and a game against the Titans. Overall, winning two of those games would have to be considered a major victory. Aside from the six games played against the Commanders division (Cowboys, Eagles and Giants), Washington will face the NFC South. Normally, the South is a solid draw for teams. However, it may be difficult to pick up more than one win in those games this time around.
Best Bet for 2024 Commanders' Win Total
I'll be betting the Commanders under 6.5 wins at +110 odds. These odds can be found at DraftKings Sportsbook. It is going to take a lot of breaks for this team to reach the average level. Expecting the offense to finish outside the bottom eight may be wishful thinking. Despite Quinn's solid coaching ability, this team is likely going to be very easy for opponents to score on. Finally, the schedule doesn't provide enough cupcake games for Washington to get to seven wins.
