On Target: Early Round WR with Volume Concerns

Last week in On Target, I looked at five guys who were going in the later rounds of drafts who could see big volume increases over their projection. The idea was to give you a look at who could potentially be startable early in the season and justify their investment almost immediately. Today, we are going to do the converse and look at five wide receivers who are being drafted as starting players already who could very conceivably have volume concerns. I am not saying any of these players are undraftable, or that I do not like them, but merely pointing out the pessimistic side of their projection.

DeAndre Hopkins, Houston Texans

Hopkins is not the No. 2 wide receiver in my personal rankings, nor is he in the first round of my potential selections. In fact, I believe that Hopkins is the most overvalued asset in the first round of drafts because his volume concerns are very real. Most of what we think we remember about Hopkins' 2017 is false. His big-volume games did not come with Deshaun Watson under center but rather with Tom Savage. In the seven games that Watson started, Hopkins saw only 10.8 targets per game, which is still a lot but not the gargantuan 12.3 targets per game that he saw when Savage was in. Hopkins' current draft position is predicated on being better than Julio Jones and Odell Beckham; spoiler alert, he isn't. If Hopkins regresses back to a normal target share (about 28 percent for a WR1) and Watson regresses to even an above-average TD rate for a quarterback (over nine percent of Watson's passes went for a TD in 2017), Hopkins is more like the sixth WR in fantasy, not the second.

Jarvis Landry, Cleveland Browns

Jarvis Landry's lowest reception total came in his rookie season, when he saw only 84 receptions. Last year in Miami with DeVante Parker hurt and/or struggling, Kenny Stills exclusively playing on the outside, no tight end to speak of, and horribly non-innovative play calling, he saw 161 targets. With those targets, he gained only 8.8 yards per reception and scored nine touchdowns. If Landry gets scaled back at all due to the presence of Josh Gordon, two talented pass-catching running backs in Duke Johnson and Carlos Hyde, and a physical menace of a tight end in David Njoku, his ADP could be a disaster. Early world from Cleveland is that Landry is going to be used on the outside as a flanker more than he ever was in Miami. This could be a positive for his value if he gets more valuable down-the-field targets, but a huge drag on his value if it causes him to lose the four catches a game he typically got within five yards of the line of scrimmage. I am very buyer-beware with Landry because a role change for him would suck out a chunk of his assumed value.

Brandin Cooks, Los Angeles Rams

I have done more research this football offseason than any other. I have rewatched games, I have read season previews, I have pored over 2017 statistics. After all of that research, I still do not have a good way to comfortably project all of Cooks' possible outcomes in 2018. If Jared Goff has some unseen talent as a deep thrower (accurate on only 42 percent of deep targets last season) then Cooks' ADP in the fifth round is too low. However, the role that Cooks is seemingly being used in was not very valuable for fantasy purposes last season. Sammy Watkins had an undeniable positive impact on the Rams, as he cleared out space for Cooper Kupp and Todd Gurley underneath and moved safeties out of their comfort zone, but he himself only received 70 targets over the course of the year. If not for eight touchdowns, Watkins would been a waiver-wire scrub level player. Cooks is likely to top those target numbers, but his fantasy numbers week to week are liable to be horribly inconsistent and for that reason, I've stayed away from him in drafts this season.

Allen Robinson, Chicago Bears

I have already released one pessimistic segment about Robinson and looking through the portfolio of teams I have drafted, he does not make very many of the rosters. Not only does he have to contend with a cadre of elite cornerbacks in his division, but the Bears offense seems unlikely to be based around feeding a WR1. Matt Nagy spread the ball around in Kansas City, involving all positions as pass catchers. The Chiefs threw 82 passes to running backs on first and second downs last year, and the WR1 got only 105 targets. Tyreek Hill happens to be one of the best deep threats in football, so he was able to generate awesome fantasy numbers with limited targets. Robinson does not represent that sort of player at this stage in his career, and the last time we saw him be effective was in 2015 when he scored a league-leading 14 touchdowns. With Trey Burton playing the Kelce role, the presence of Tarik Cohen, the expectation that Jordan Howard will see more targets, and the concerns about Robinson's health, his current ADP and volume projections seem wildly optimistic.

Devin Funchess, Carolina Panthers

Unlike the other players on this list, I do own Funchess on quite a number of seasonal teams and have plenty of shares in him in my best-ball leagues. However, as the offseason as gone on, I have realized that Funchess is probably not a special player and that the Panthers do not see him as such. D.J. Moore has a better athletic profile than Funchess and was a much better player in college, and the only reason Funchess is projected ahead of Moore in the pecking order is his NFL experience. Greg Olsen also seems to be healthy this season in a way that he wasn't last year and if that remains true for 16 games, the tight end is likely to lead the Panthers in targets. I think Funchess' ADP is basically fine, but with Moore seeming like he was born to play the part of a Panthers WR and Olsen looking 100 percent, it could be hard for Funchess to get the 111 targets he received last season.