On Target: Week 15 Matchups

It is Conference Finals week in most fantasy football leagues and there are important decisions to be made everywhere. There is also a live final on DraftKings with several big GPP tournaments on all of the major daily fantasy sites. As the season wears on, decisions become more and more critical and we have a plethora of data to sift through. With that in mind, let's dig through some good, bad and interesting WR/CB matchups to help us make decisions this week. As always, WR/CB data is provided by Pro Football Focus' premium tools.

The Good

Julio Jones vs Tampa Bay

The Tampa defense has been consistently bad all season long, but as they have struggled through injuries over the last two months they have gotten even worse. We've gotten only one true JULIO game this year and I think it is likely that we could get No. 2 here. The Falcons have to do everything possible to win each game as they are in a tight playoff race, and Jones will be up against Brent Grimes who allows 0.29 fantasy points per route run against and a 68 percent catch rate in coverage, while also giving up size to Jones in height and weight. This is a potential explosion spot for Julio.

Keenan Allen vs Kansas City

This Chargers vs Chiefs game is likely to decide the AFC West division winner and Allen has been absolutely nuclear for the last month. The team has stopped throwing to Melvin Gordon nearly as often and has cut Antonio Gates almost entirely out of the picture. Kansas City's pass defense as a whole has been lackluster, but Steven Nelson has been the worst in the slot, being targeted 29 percent of the time the opposing team throws a pass and allowing an insane 0.48 fantasy points per route run against. Allen is a prime DFS target and obviously one of the three or four best WR1s of the week.

Demaryius Thomas vs Indianapolis

The Denver offense has been so bad as a whole that I can see being gunshy on starting Thomas this week, but Trevor Siemian in the past has at least shown some flashes of competency and DT has played good football this year, even if the results aren't always there. Thomas mostly lines up on the left and the Colts' Quincy Wilson is their right cornerback du jour, and he allows an unheard of 0.61 fantasy points per route run against. That, combined with Thomas' physical advantages, makes me very bullish on him this week as a start in all 12-team leagues and as a DFS tournament option.

The Bad

Martavis Bryant vs New England

This one is pretty interesting to me because people will be looking to start all of their options from the New England/Pittsburgh game, as it has by far the highest game total of the whole week. Fantasy Footballers will be starting JuJu Smith-Schuster, Chris Hogan, Danny Amendola and all sorts of various pieces in their conference finals and relying on these options in DFS. According to the WR/CB matchup chart on PFF, Bryant has the hardest matchup in this game against Stephon Gilmore, who has an estimated 48 percent advantage in coverage over Bryant. He is likely the only Steeler I would avoid.

Amari Cooper vs Dallas

Dallas is not known for defense… at all; as a result, I was very surprised when I looked at the matchup chart and saw Cooper so poorly graded. He will be against the Cowboys' right corner Jourdan Lewis for most of the game, who has played 330 snaps this year. 330 snaps is fairly meaningful for a corner – by contrast, Cooper has played 404 for the Raiders. Lewis allows a target in coverage only 17 percent of the time which is not a great indicator for Cooper, as he already has seen a wild fluctuation in targets from game to game this season.

T.Y. Hilton vs Denver

This one really sucks for the fantasy playoffs because people will have a tough decision with Hilton. Denver has allowed the most passing touchdowns in football, but they have allowed the fewest wide receiver yards and yards is really what Hilton does. He gets down the field for deep air yard targets and he generates a ton of fantasy points in open space. However, he is going up against one of the league's best cover corners in Aqib Talib, who allows only 0.22 fantasy points per route run against. Hilton is a potential sit for me this week if I have comparable options.

The Interesting

Adam Thielen vs Cincinnati

Thielen has what is graded as a very good matchup against the Bengals and their right corner, William Jackson III. However, there is something in Jackson's statistical profile that stands out. Of all the corners projected to start this week, he allows the lowest catch percentage at only 42 percent. Thielen has a 68 percent conversion rate of targets to catches, so it is possible that he performs at a lower clip of efficiency in this matchup than projected.

Chris Hogan vs Pittsburgh

The place to attack Pittsburgh this season has been in the slot as Coty Sensabaugh is their worst cover corner. Hogan had a bad fantasy performance last week, but he did play 90 percent of the snaps and has the best matchup of all Patriots skill position players. Sensabaugh allows 0.61 fantasy points per route run against in coverage and Hogan is probably my favorite "sneaky" sort of play from that game. In seasonal leagues, he is an unquestionable start for me.

Dede Westbrook vs Houston

Westbrook is a player that I was fairly bullish on last week against Seattle and that good faith was rewarded with 19 PPR points. Again this week, I think the Jaguars offense is in an exploitable spot and the Blake Bortles/Westbrook pairing is a tournament option. Westbrook will line up against Kevin Johnson, who allows 0.49 fantasy points per route run against and a 75 percent completion rate in coverage. I would go so far as to consider Westbrook a startable WR3 in 12-team leagues.