On Target: Week 16 Matchups

Championship week has arrived in all civilized fantasy football leagues, and it is time to get down to the gritty work of figuring out the right plays to make. As always, there are massive DFS prize pools to be gawked at and potentially won. The stakes are high in Week 16 and with that idea in mind, lets turn to our good, bad and interesting WR/CB matchups for championship week.

The Good

Golden Tate vs Cincinnati

When I went to investigate Tate for this week, I was interested in him for DFS and as an easy start in league finals simply because his target volume is so stable. However, he actually has Pro Football Focus' No. 1 graded matchup of the week with a 65 percent advantage over the Bengals' KeiVarae Russell. Russell allows 0.48 fantasy points per route run against and an 88 percent completion rate in coverage. This should be an easy day at the office for Tate.

Keelan Cole / Allen Hurns vs San Francisco

There is no denying that it feels strange to be clicking 'start' on Blake Bortles' wide receivers with league titles on the line, but it is absolutely the right move this week. With Marqise Lee unlikely to play, Keelan Cole projects for another start after a breakout game last week. Cole will be matched up with Donte Johnson, who he has a 15 percent advantage on per PFF. Johnson allows 0.34 fantasy points per route run against, while Hurns draws an even better spot against K'Waun Williams, who allows an 81 percent catch rate in coverage.

Mike Evans vs Carolina

One of my favorite spots in DFS is to take advantage of giant WRs matched up with normally solid corners who are much smaller than them. Jason Verrett was a classic example for me, where he would be lights out against guys who were only a few inches taller than him but would really struggle against guys like Alshon Jeffery. Evans gets that spot this week against James Bradberry, who is six inches shorter than he is. Bradberry is not a bad corner, but the physical mismatch here should prove too great for him to keep Evans off the score sheet.

The Bad

Chris Hogan vs Buffalo

Hogan was a surprise inactive last week after he had played the week before, so I imagine that this blurb might fall on some deaf ears as Hogan owners are unlikely to be in their finals. However, I would consider sitting him for one of the Steelers options or someone comparable in the WR2 morass. Hogan will be facing Tre'Davious White, who allows only 0.21 fantasy points per route run against in coverage. The Patriots always attack what the defense gives them, and this is one spot where the Bills are not vulnerable.

Jamison Crowder vs Denver

Unlike Hogan, there are probably many Crowder owners who are in their fantasy championships as he was a low-cost pick who has been close to a WR1 since the Week 8 game against the Cowboys. His owners will face a tough decision as he squares off against Bradley Roby, Chris Harris and Aqib Talib. The Denver CB trio has done great work limiting WR yardage all year long but has allowed 26 passing touchdowns this season. I would err on the side of starting Crowder, but it could be an inefficient go of things for him.

T.Y. Hilton vs Baltimore

I am not a big Hilton guy to begin with, but this is about the worst possible spot for him. The Colts have nothing to play for, the Ravens are within a shout of the playoffs if they win their next two games, and this game is on the road. Hilton's home/road splits are legit massive because his skill set just works much better indoors and on turf. He also will face off against Brandon Carr, who allows only 0.24 fantasy points per route run against. He is a clear sit this week for me.

The Interesting

Emmanuel Sanders / Demaryius Thomas vs Washington

I don't think that this is a great matchup for either of them but I am very interested to see how Denver chooses to line these two guys up against Josh Norman and Bashaud Breeland. Sanders plays in the slot 43 percent of the time and splits his other time evenly between the left and the right side, while Thomas plays 51 percent of his snaps on Norman's side. Whoever matches up with Norman less often should see more targets in their direction, and the QB situation in Denver does make both of them less appealing, but with a gun to my head in a final I would start Sanders and ignore both in DFS.

JuJu Smith-Schuster vs Houston

The Steelers offense is going to look dynamically different without the presence of Antonio Brown. His game-breaking ability to create space and secure an absurd number of his targets will be missed and neither Smith-Schuster nor Martavis Bryant are able to even come close to approximating AB84. However, JuJu does have the better corner matchup against Kevin Johnson. He is 35 pounds heavier than Johnson, who allows 0.41 fantasy points per route run in coverage against. JJSS would be a clear start for me in any final.

Alshon Jeffery vs Oakland

The Raiders pass defense has been historically bad. Their interceptions (or lack thereof) and adjusted yards allowed per attempt are some of the worst we have seen in the modern hyper-passing oriented NFL, and yet Alshon is only given a two percent advantage over Sean Smith per PFF. Smith is actually one of the few corners who can match up with Alshon's size as they are the same height and Smith actually has a few pounds on Jeffery. I would not sit Alshon in any important final, but I do think this is an interesting spot to watch as it is not a cushy matchup for him by any means.