Streaming Defenses: Picking a Week 3 Defense

This article is part of our Streaming Defenses series.

Dolphins - Last week the Dolphins went on the road for a divisional road game missing two of their starting linebackers and were throttled by the Bills' Dan Carpenter. That's right, Dan Carpenter. He scored 15 points on them with five made field goals. Outside of that, the Dolphins allowed a special teams TD to C.J. Spiller and a TD catch to Sammy Watkins, late in the third quarter. My point here is that the Dolphins defense bent, but did not break, when they were on the field. This week they get to go back home to face a Chiefs team without their best offensive weapon in RB Jamaal Charles, who is out with an ankle injury. Knile Davis will fill in and is a more than serviceable back, who is elusive in open space. Fortunately the Dolphins should have LB Koa Misi (ankle) back for this game, which should help in containing Davis. In the passing game, QB Alex Smith has been a liability through two games, as he has a 5.9 YPA with one TD and three interceptions. He has shown good mobility with 78 rushing yards in those games. His best weapon in the passing game is TE Travis Kelce right now, which speaks to Smith's propensity to check down and not look for the chunk yardage play downfield. In his one game of play, WR Dwayne Bowe still seems under utilized, as he saw the same amount of targets (six) that Donnie Avery did. The Dolphins have allowed only 5.2 YPA in their two games, which is a small sample size, but their opponents (the Patriots and Bills) both have a more potent passing game than do the Chiefs. I should probably be more concerned than I am, but I just don't see the Chiefs offense lighting up the scoreboard in Miami. Vegas has this over/under set at 42 with the Dolphins favored by 4.5, which puts this at about a 23-19 game. Facing the Chiefs at home, the Dolphins defense/special teams have an ownership of 37 percent at CBS Sports, 5.1 percent at ESPN, and 21 percent at Yahoo.

Colts - This seems like an obvious play, considering how poorly the Jags have played offensively in their first two games. In Week 1, they got out to a 17-0 lead early in the 2nd quarter against the Eagles, only to be shutout the rest of the way. In Week 2 they scored only 10 points, but gave up a whopping 10 sacks in the process to the Redskins. On Tuesday the Jags cut their starting right tackle, Cam Bradfield, which can't be a good sign. QB Chad Henne isn't a bad player, it's just hard for him to manage the offense, when he has no time to get the ball out. It really wouldn't be all that surprising to see Blake Bortles get some action in this game, if things are going bad enough for the Jags. To make matters worse for their passing game, TE Marcedes Lewis (ankle) was put on the IR this week. This combined with a young WR corps limits the offense's ability to move the chains. It also doesn't help that Week 1 breakout star WR Allen Hurns fell back to Earth in Week 2, catching only two of his six targets for 13 yards. On the ground, it's tough to tell what RB Toby Gerhart brings to the table, as the Jags haven't been able to stick with the run long enough to find out. Moreover, there's their poor offensive line to deal with too, which isn't exactly opening up many holes from him to run through. The Colts don't have a fearsome pass rush, but they were able to hold the Broncos to just one TD in the second half of their Week 1 game, which is something. They got torched pretty good by the Eagles in Week 2, but that's going to happen to plenty of teams this season. The only thing that scares me in this game is Bortles, who could get some playing time in the second half and start to light things up, as he attempts to prove himself as the more capable QB on the roster right now. Vegas has this over/under set at 45.5 with the Colts favored by 6.5, which puts this at about a 26-20 game. Facing the Jaguars on the road, the Colts defense/special teams have an ownership of 21 percent at CBS Sports, 3.9 percent at ESPN, and 28 percent at Yahoo.

Falcons - After getting lit up by the Saints and Bengals, the Falcons likely don't have many believers in their defense. They lack a pass rush and have shown little ability to stop opposing passing games. The reasoning behind giving them a look this week is the Buc's offense they'll be going up against at home. So far QB Josh McCown has shown very little of the play-making ability that he flashed last season in Chicago. He has two passing touchdowns and three interceptions with a 6.5 YPA. He's got two very capable WRs in Vincent Jackson and rookie Mike Evans, but they can only do so much. The fact that rookie TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins is dealing with a foot injury and may not play on Thursday, doesn't help matters either. The bigger problem for the offense though is RB Doug Martin, who is dealing with a knee injury, but should be fine to play this week. When he's been healthy though, he's been very unproductive, with nine carries for only nine yards in Week 1 against the Panthers and an average of 3.6 YPC in 2013 over just six games. If the team opts to go with Bobby Rainey over Martin, or gives him some of his carries, this could be problematic, as Rainey has proven himself a more than capable back-up and possibly a better all around back than Martin. Against the Rams in Week 2 he averaged 6.5 YPC on 22 carries and in 2013, he proved himself an explosive back with two games over 120 yards rushing. If the Falcons offense can put up some points early and get the Bucs chasing them, there's a chance this defense can have one of their more productive games of the season. The fact that it's a short week with the game on Thursday helps the home team. Vegas has this over/under set at 44.5 with the Falcons favored by 6.5, which puts this at about a 26-19 game. Facing the Bucs at home, the Falcons defense/special teams have an ownership of six percent at CBS Sports, 1.9 percent at ESPN, and one percent at Yahoo.

Jets - The Jets are at home to take on the Bears, an offense that relies heavily on the pass. Unfortunately, this is where the Jets struggle, as their strength on defense lies in their ability to stop the run, though they did sack Aaron Rodgers four times in Week 2. Still, QB Jay Cutler isn't the most accurate QB, as we saw from his two interceptions against the Bills in Week 1. Their WRs of Brandon Marshall (ankle) and Alshon Jeffery (hamstring) aren't going to get behind any DBs, but they will use their bodies to shield defenders, as they post up for a catch. Picking the Jets defense is more of a backing of Vegas here than anything, as they have them almost a field goal favorite. The only logic I have to back up that line is that at home on Monday night in a public game, you bring your A game and Vegas thinks the Jets will ugly this game up enough to pull out a slight victory. Their last three Monday night games were on the road against the Falcons (they won 30-28) in Week 5 of 2013, on the road against the Titans (they lost 10-14) in Week 15 of 2012, and at home against the Texans (they lost 23-17) in Week 5 of 2012. If you have better options, I'd explore them, as this really just seems like Vegas knows something I don't here. The best case scenario here is the Jets make the Bears one-dimensional on offense, as they shutdown RB Matt Forte and force Cutler to repeatedly air it out, something that eventually worked against the 49ers on Sunday night. Vegas has this over/under set at 45.5 with the Jets favored by 2.5, which puts this at about a 24-21 game. Facing the Bears at home, the Jets defense/special teams have an ownership of 18 percent at CBS Sports, 3.0 percent at ESPN, and five percent at Yahoo.

Eagles - It's tough to tell just how good the Eagles defense is because their uptempo offense generates not only extra possessions for their offense, but also extra possessions for the opposing offense as well. Week 1 wasn't a good test of their skills, as they got down to the Jags early, but then shut them out from the early 2nd quarter on. Against the Colts in Week 2 though, they stepped up to the plate and held QB Andrew Luck to just 5.1 YPA, which is the second lowest YPA he's had in his career (37 games). To me that's very impressive, especially on the road. This week against QB Kirk Cousins, he figures to be less of a threat, but still one to be cautious of, as he did well running this offense in the pre-season and had success last week against the Jags, although that's nothing to be touting. WR DeSean Jackson has a bruised AC joint in his shoulder, but still figures to play in this game, especially considering he'll be going against his former team. TE Niles Paul likely won't be as big of a factor as the 11 targets he saw in Week 2, as Pierre Garcon will get more looks than his four targets. In the Eagles secondary, S Malcolm Jenkins has played well this season, after coming over from the Saints, a unit that is missing his play making ability. On the ground, RB Alfred Morris has gotten off to a hot start this season and will be a focal point of the Eagles defense, though don't expect them to be as soft as the Jags were in Week 2. The biggest concern here is that Cousins really is the best QB for this team and he comes out guns blazing and this game turns into a shootout. Last season when these two teams met in Week 11 in Philadelphia, the Eagles won 24-16, allowing the Redskins to run all over them to the tune of 191 yards, but they kept RG3 mostly in check. Hopefully this game goes similarly this weekend. Vegas has this over/under set at 50 with the Eagles favored by 6.5, which puts this at about a 28-22 game. Facing the Redskins at home, the Eagles defense/special teams have an ownership of 25 percent at CBS Sports, 9.7 percent at ESPN, and 14 percent at Yahoo.

Here are my rankings for this week, the next four weeks and the remainder of the season:

Finally, here's how the picks from the previous week faired:

Redskins (vs Jaguars) - 10 points allowed, 10 sacks, one interception

Dolphins (at Bills) - 20 points allowed

Raiders (vs Texans) - 30 points allowed, one blocked kick

Giants (vs Cardinals) - 25 points allowed, four sacks

Titans (vs Cowboys) - 26 points allowed, four sacks, one fumble recovery