Sunday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Bears at Texans

Week 1 didn't quite go the Bears wanted it, with rookie first overall pick Caleb Williams struggling badly (14-of-29 attempts for 93 yards and zero touchdowns) and both of the Bears' prized new receivers (Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze) suffering injuries that threaten their availability in this game. The Bears clawed their way to a win anyway, but not nearly as impressively as Houston did against a formidable Indianapolis team. The new-look Houston wideout trio of Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell scaring the Colts into selling out against the pass, allowing free agent workhorse pickup Joe Mixon breeze his way to 159 yards and one touchdown. The Bears defense looks like one of the best in the league all the same, making this a collision between strengths as the Texans host them in Houston on Sunday night. The over/under is 45.0 with Houston favored by 5.5 points.

QUARTERBACKS

Caleb Williams ($8800 DK, $13000 FD) is talented and could bounce back a little bit after nothing went right in Week 1, but it's difficult to give the benefit of the doubt when he's on the road against a strong Houston pass rush. That Allen and/or Odunze might be out or limited makes it look more concerning yet. On the plus side, slate ownership should be low.

C.J. Stroud ($9800 DK, $16000 FD) will probably be owned more than Williams, but it might not be full-blown chalk against a fairly tough Chicago defense. Particularly when all three of Collins, Diggs and Dell are capable of producing at similar levels of probability, it's tough to identify which of the three should be omitted, if any. Affording all three and Stroud is difficult to pull off, but might be worth a thought. Tough as the matchup is, playing at home is a crucial detail, both because it's not Chicago and because Stroud is particularly good at home.

RUNNING BACKS

Joe Mixon ($10200 DK, $14500 FD) was the star of the Houston offense in Week 1, and he should be busy in this game as well. The Texans clearly view Mixon as a workhorse, and he's built for according workloads. The efficiency will probably decline for Mixon here relative to Week 1, however, if only because Colts defensive coordinator Gus Bradley admitted after the game that the Colts were selling out against the pass, cutting loose Mixon on the ground as a result. Dameon Pierce might be the backup to Mixon here but couldn't practice Friday due to a hamstring injury. If Pierce can't play then the RB2 is apparently Dare Ogunbowale ($400 DK, $6500 FD). British Brooks or/and Cam Akers might be candidates for activation after sitting Week 1, but none of them or Ogunbowale would be likely to play much.

D'Andre Swift ($7000 DK, $10500 FD) was paid a lot in free agency, but in Week 1 he saw only 10 carries and one target on 37 snaps. Travis Homer ($1000 DK, $7000 FD) played the second-most snaps with 11, while Khalil Herbert played only six snaps and Roschon Johnson was inactive entirely. It's a bizarre situation that frankly doesn't make much sense. The Bears almost need to run things differently than they did with their backfield in Week 1, but there are no assurances.

WIDE RECEIVERS + TIGHT ENDS

Nico Collins ($10000 DK, $13500 FD), Stefon Diggs ($9400 DK, $12500 FD) and Tank Dell ($7400 DK, $11500 FD) are about equally capable of going off in any given game, making it difficult to rank them as single-slate DFS values. Given that their cumulative presence makes it difficult for a fourth pass catcher to emerge for the Texans, it might be a viable strategy to pick all three wideouts and leave out Stroud, having claimed nearly all of his production via the three wideouts anyway. Dalton Schultz ($5600 DK, $9500 FD) is capable of stepping up as well, but he only caught one pass in Week 1 and more so sees his usage when everyone else is covered. Brevin Jordan is an interesting punt play at tight end, as he saw 38 snaps in Week 1.

DJ Moore ($9000 DK, $12000 FD) almost has to be more productive here than he was in Week 1, both in general and because the Bears can't count as much on Keenan Allen ($8400 DK, $11000 FD) or/and Rome Odunze. The Bears indefensibly played Gerald Everett ($2400 DK, $8000 FD) more than Cole Kmet ($5000 DK, $9500 FD) against the Titans – 33 snaps to 25 – but there's no way the front office or ownership were happy to see that given that Kmet just signed a four-year, $50 million contract last year. If Everett gets the snaps here again then it might make him a fantasy value, however. Tyler Scott ($600 DK, $5500 FD) is probably the Chicago WR4 here, but it's tough to tell how ready the second-year speedster might be to actually contribute.

KICKERS

Ka'imi Fairbairn ($4800 DK, $9000 FD) is one of the top kickers in the league, and he's always worth paying attention to on a single-game slate. Particularly if the Texans are at once moving the ball but also failing to convert touchdowns at their customary rate, Fairbairn might get the chance to make up the difference with field goal attempts, at which he is highly capable. This seems like a good slate for him.

Cairo Santos ($4400 DK, $9000 FD) is a distinguished kicker in his own right, going for his third season in a row with a field goal percentage of 90.0 or higher, and he was perfect in Week 1 with 13.0 fantasy points against Tennessee. This is probably a worse matchup for Santos – the Bears are more likely to fall behind in this game than they were against the Titans – but if the opportunity arises it's nearly certain that Santos will do his own part.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

The Bears ($3000 DK, $8000 FD) feature a complete defense boasting strong personnel against both the run and the pass. The pass rush and coverage personnel are both good, which could be a crucial detail against a Texans offense propelled by Stroud and those three wideouts, but it is possibly the case that the Texans are as tough as any offense in the NFL. That the game is in Houston instead of Chicago is another detail that works against the Bears. While the Bears defense is capable of great play, it's also probably a requirement in this game just to hold serve.

The Texans ($4000 DK, $8500 FD) probably carry the higher point projection as the home favorite taking on a struggling Bears offense, but they need to cut down on the big plays after getting beat downfield multiple times by the Colts wideouts in Week 1. The Houston run defense is as good as any in the league and between the duo of Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter, a fierce pass rush could set loose on Williams here.