Sunday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Los Angeles Chargers vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Many expected 2024 to be a rebuilding year for the Chargers, their first under Jim Harbaugh and after a slight roster overhaul, but at 6-3 the Chargers have established themselves as one of the better teams in the league. The 4-6 Bengals probably expected to be in a position more like the Chargers are now – a winning record and a sound course for the playoffs – but various disruptions have knocked the Bengals off course in a turbulent start to the season. The Cincinnati run defense has improved slightly after a difficult start to the season, though, and with Tee Higgins returning for this game it's possible that the Bengals can at last unleash a full-force version of the 2024 offense. The Chargers are favored by one point as the home team, with the over/under at 48.0.

QUARTERBACK

Joe Burrow ($10600 DK, $15000 FD) is probably one of the toughest fades of the slate, and if you don't select him it's probably worth serious though to pick both of Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, if not a third notable Bengals pass catcher in addition to them. Burrow likely needs to produce in this game for the Bengals to be competitive, so fading the Bengals passing game entirely might be understood as betting against the Bengals in general.

Justin Herbert ($9400 DK, $14000 FD) might be more easily faded than Burrow, but there's still risk in betting against a player as good as Herbert, especially when his relatively modest fantasy production is purely a reflection of the Chargers' game planning goals to this point. Herbert has played very well and the Chargers are 6-3 using this blueprint, but if the Bengals offense scores quickly it would force the Chargers to change the blueprint to one where they throw the ball more. If Herbert gets a usage spike he'll also likely get a fantasy points spike, and the absence of prior notice assures Herbert's ownership should be modest in the event that he goes off.

RUNNING BACK

J.K. Dobbins ($10000 DK, $13000 FD) is still the RB1 for the Chargers and could very well be one of the correct picks on this slate, but the reemergence of Gus Edwards ($3400 DK, $8000 FD) doubtlessly lowers Dobbins' fantasy upside relative to what it was earlier this year. Either or both players are probably capable of doing real damage to the Bengals, making them arguably the toughest and most momentous players to project on this single-game slate. Hassan Haskins poached a touchdown last week but is unlikely to in this game.

Chase Brown ($9600 DK, $11500 FD) is locked in as the clear lead back for the Bengals, making him seemingly one of the most reliable picks on this slate. On the other hand, the Chargers run defense has been strong this year and the Bengals are prepared to go with a pass-happy offense if the run game doesn't get going. Khalil Herbert ($2400 DK, $7000 FD) is not a threat to Brown's starting workload, but just the same Herbert will likely play more snaps this week than he did last week, when he played only two snaps after the trade from Chicago.

WIDE RECEIVER + TIGHT END

Ja'Marr Chase ($12000 DK, $16500 FD) is an exceedingly tough fade on a single-game slate, especially given that the Chargers aren't exactly overloaded with alternatives. Chase and Burrow will at once be very highly owned on this slate, yet realistically could be mandatory picks for cashing. If Chase disappoints at all for his investors it might be due to Tee Higgins ($8600 DK, $12000 FD) making noise in his return, but there's plenty of chance the right answer is Both in this case. The third-leading receiver for the Bengals would likely be between tight end Mike Gesicki ($6200 DK, $8000 FD) and Andrei Iosivas ($3000 DK, $9500 FD), though Gesicki has been the more consistent of the two. Backup tight end Tanner Hudson ($3800 DK, $6000 FD) could also be busy, though starting and fellow tight end Drew Sample ($2800 DK, $6500 FD) rarely runs real routes. Jermaine Burton ($2600 DK, $7000 FD) and to a lesser extent Trent Irwin ($1000 DK, $5000 FD) are your punt options at wide receiver, with Burton's big-play potential probably making him the preferable option of the two.

Ladd McConkey ($8200 DK, $11000 FD) should be fairly busy in this game, to the point that he might be the top-ranked Chargers pick on the board. The Cincinnati pass defense has not been good, and McConkey easily outclasses the other Chargers wideouts in terms of per-snap targets. With that said, Joshua Palmer ($5800 DK, $9500 FD) is another fine candidate to produce and so will be Quentin Johnston ($7000 DK, $10000 FD) if he can hold off the advance of the much faster DJ Chark ($1200 DK, $5500 FD), who was expected to start over Johnston before a training camp injury. If Chark plays more this week (he only played one snap last week) then he could be an intriguing punt play, though one with nothing at all assured. Tight end Will Dissly ($5200 DK, $7500 FD) is in theory a blocking specialist tight end, but the ineffectiveness of Hayden Hurst has forced the Chargers to give Dissly more route running work than expected while Tucker Fisk takes the thankless blocking work previously budgeted for Dissly. The role change has been great for Dissly's fantasy value, as he already has a career high in targets through nine games. Jalen Reagor is a space-clearing decoy but might be a worthwhile punt play if he can hold off Chark.

KICKER

Cameron Dicker ($5400 DK, $9000 FD) has had a slow four weeks – just 21 fantasy points in the last three weeks – but he remains one of the top kickers in the league and had four double-digit fantasy outings in the first six weeks. Dicker has been a cashing option in single-game slates in the past and he could very well be one here also.

Evan McPherson ($5000 DK, $9000 FD) doesn't have the cleanest conversion rate but he's still probably one of the league's better kickers, and the Cincinnati offense sometimes affords him considerable fantasy opportunity. That includes long-range kicks, as McPherson is one of the NFL's most active kickers beyond 50 yards. McPherson has three games of double-digit fantasy points on the year.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

Cincinnati ($4000 DK, $8500 FD) doesn't carry a great projection in this game, both because their defense ranks as one of the league's worst to this point and because the Chargers tend to limit turnover opportunities. With a ground-heavy rush attack the sacks and interceptions probably won't occur easily, but that should assure low ownership at least.

The Chargers ($4400 DK, $8500 FD) have the more capable defense in this game, but that's not to say it has the advantage here. The Chargers have overachieved on defense and don't have as much raw talent as their results might lead someone to believe. When an overachieving group faces off against a legitimately talented one – Burrow, Chase and Higgins likely qualify – then regression can sometimes occur at the overachieving team's expense. The Chargers have held strong all year, but this still might be their toughest test to this point.