Sunday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Philadelphia vs. Dallas

Sunday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Philadelphia vs. Dallas

This article is part of our Showdown/Single Game DFS Breakdown series.

Dallas has gone 4-0 with Cooper Rush playing in place of Dak Prescott (thumb), but that winning streak coincided with a schedule of teams who are either bad, match up poorly with Dallas (especially the Dallas pass rush), or both. The Eagles will be Rush's truest test yet, both because they're the toughest defense he's seen to this point and especially because the Eagles offense might be able to withstand the undefeated Dallas pass rush. If the Dallas pass rush can't rattle Jalen Hurts, then the Eagles playmakers should be able to exploit a Dallas secondary that is more opportunistic than talented or punctual. The Dallas secondary is dependent on its pass rush to look as good as it has to this point. As of press time the over/under is 42.5 and the Eagles are favored by 6.5.

QUARTERBACKS

Cooper Rush ($9400 DK, $14000 FD) gets at least one more start for Dallas, and he's done exceptionally well to this point by backup standards. This is easily his toughest test to this point, though, and it would be entirely understandable if he stumbled in this setting. As a showdown pick he carries substantial risk without obvious upside – the way his numbers stay clean is if Dallas runs often and well, keeping Rush's volume limited and his usage ideally restricted to favorable down/distance situations. We need some amount of volume to get our money's worth from a quarterback selection, but the odds are Rush would wilt the more passes

Dallas has gone 4-0 with Cooper Rush playing in place of Dak Prescott (thumb), but that winning streak coincided with a schedule of teams who are either bad, match up poorly with Dallas (especially the Dallas pass rush), or both. The Eagles will be Rush's truest test yet, both because they're the toughest defense he's seen to this point and especially because the Eagles offense might be able to withstand the undefeated Dallas pass rush. If the Dallas pass rush can't rattle Jalen Hurts, then the Eagles playmakers should be able to exploit a Dallas secondary that is more opportunistic than talented or punctual. The Dallas secondary is dependent on its pass rush to look as good as it has to this point. As of press time the over/under is 42.5 and the Eagles are favored by 6.5.

QUARTERBACKS

Cooper Rush ($9400 DK, $14000 FD) gets at least one more start for Dallas, and he's done exceptionally well to this point by backup standards. This is easily his toughest test to this point, though, and it would be entirely understandable if he stumbled in this setting. As a showdown pick he carries substantial risk without obvious upside – the way his numbers stay clean is if Dallas runs often and well, keeping Rush's volume limited and his usage ideally restricted to favorable down/distance situations. We need some amount of volume to get our money's worth from a quarterback selection, but the odds are Rush would wilt the more passes he throws. This isn't a criticism of Rush – the Eagles defense is simply very good and the Cowboys offense is rather beat up, the latest concern being that CeeDee Lamb was added to the injury report Friday with a hip issue, though he's expected to play.

Jalen Hurts ($11800 DK, $17500 FD) is system and situation-dependent but the Eagles have built a loaded surrounding cast and offensive coordinator Shane Steichen is doing a great job the last two years. The concern with this matchup is almost strictly the Dallas pass rush, which is memorably strong and can make an otherwise good quarterback look bad. If the Dallas pass rush keeps winning, Hurts' numbers could suffer badly for it. The Dallas pass rush might not get the better of this matchup, though, because the Eagles offensive line might be the best in the league and Dallas has not succeeded against a line this good to this point. In fact, every single offensive line the Cowboys faced to this point was either bad, injured or both.

RUNNING BACKS

Miles Sanders ($8400 DK, $12500 FD) is far from consistent for fantasy purposes, but he is a reliably effective runner and if the Eagles score a certain number of points his numbers will eventually go along for the ride if necessary. When Sanders gets volume as a runner he can prove one of the main reasons for such a point total, though, and this could be a setting where he sees 15-plus carries. It's puzzling and disappointing that he's so bad as a pass catcher, but Sanders only gets phased out of the offense if the Eagles are forced to play catch-up, which hasn't happened much and isn't expected at all in this matchup. Kenneth Gainwell ($6200 DK, $7500 FD) stands to benefit if the Eagles surprisingly fall behind or otherwise throw the ball more than expected. Gainwell is likely to get phased out for the most part if the Eagles go run heavy, however. Boston Scott ($1200 DK, $6500 FD) was a healthy scratch last week in favor of Trey Sermon ($600 DK, $5500 FD), who played three snaps.

For the Cowboys to compete in this game they need Ezekiel Elliott ($8200 DK, $11500 FD) to produce, and probably with high carry volume. Tony Pollard ($8000 DK, $9000 FD) is capable from scrimmage and Dallas could certainly use a big game from him too, but Pollard simply cannot provide the usage volume Dallas needs to gain leverage over the Eagles in this one. If Pollard has a substantially bigger game than Elliott then the Eagles will win, but that is also the exact expectation implied by the spread. The worse Elliott produces the more likely the Eagles cover. Running the ball is how you deny usage to the Eagles corners and pass rush – two of the team's main sources of strength.

WIDE RECEIVERS + TIGHT ENDS

CeeDee Lamb ($9800 DK, $13000 FD) didn't practice Friday due to a hip issue and is listed as questionable, but he's generally expected to play. It's anyone's guess what's really going on here – it's not good when a player has an in-week injury, especially on a Friday, but that he didn't practice Friday indicates the injury occurred Thursday, meaning his absence Friday might have been an instance of patient precaution rather than a panicked realization. There's also some chance the Cowboys are fabricating an injury entirely, because the Eagles might not use Darius Slay to shadow Lamb if they think he's at 85 percent rather than 100. Lamb has tons of risk given all the uncertainties swirling around him, but it's also possible that nothing is wrong with him. Michael Gallup ($5400 DK, $10000 FD) gets a tough matchup here no matter whether it's Slay or James Bradberry on the other side. Gallup's workload is unclear, too – he's returning from a torn ACL, of course, and in his first two games back he played fewer snaps than Noah Brown ($5000 DK, $7500 FD). That workload split will eventually tilt toward Gallup's favor, but it's difficult to know when. Brown probably isn't very good but he is big for a wideout and could be a tough slot matchup for the 5-foot-9 Avonte Maddox. Dalton Schultz ($4800 DK, $8000 FD) has seen his price drop but the Cowboys removed him from the injury report, so perhaps his knee isn't actually an issue at this point. If so, then Philadelphia's strong cornerback play and comparatively weak linebacker coverage could encourage Dallas to feed Schultz in this one. With that said, Schultz played only nine snaps in Week 5 and it's possible Dallas is just lying that he's fully healthy. If Schultz is still hurt and loses playing time as a result, rookies Jake Ferguson ($200 DK, $6000 FD) and Peyton Hendershot ($200 DK, $6500 FD) are both capable. Ferguson tends to get left with more blocking tasks than Hendershot, though.

A.J. Brown ($10600 DK, $13500 FD) and DeVonta Smith ($7400 DK, $12000 FD) have largely alternated big games so far, but either or both could produce in this setting against Dallas corners who just can't cover them man to man. The Cowboys make things tough on their opponents more so due to their pass rush, and that variable might not apply like usual against a Philadelphia offensive line that might be the best in the league. Quez Watkins ($4600 DK, $7000 FD) and to a lesser extent Zach Pascal ($2000 DK, $6000 FD) play a decent number of snaps as the WR3/WR4, respectively, but tight end Dallas Goedert ($6800 DK, $11000 FD) is the most likely third target for Philadelphia. It's not easy for the Eagles passing game to budget a healthy target count for all of its Big Three in the same game, but at least one of them is almost certain to be a necessary cashing pick and two wouldn't be surprising either.

KICKERS

Jake Elliott ($4000 DK, $9000 FD) and Brett Maher ($3800 DK, $8500 FD) are your kickers, and they both carry some amount of merit. Elliott's best selling point is that he plays for the favored team, and he's a competent kicker with the range to strike from beyond 50 yards. Maher probably has the stronger leg and might be the better kicker by now – Maher's progression as a kicker was probably stunted from playing so much punter in college – but it's not clear how much he'll be free to display his range if the Cowboys fall behind like the spread expects.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

The Cowboys ($3400 DK, $9500 FD) are significant underdogs and a defense in their position wouldn't normally project very well for fantasy purposes, but their pass rush is so lively that they're capable of point surges even against good offenses. With that said, it's also possible the Dallas pass rush has finally met its match against an Eagles offensive line that could be as good as any in the league, or even the best. It's truly a strength versus strength matchup, so it shouldn't be truly shocking to anyone if the Cowboys defense gets to Hurts a bit, even if it's not the first expectation.

As major favorites at home the Eagles ($4200 DK, $10000 FD) defense probably projects better than the Dallas one. The Eagles defense could be as good or better as the Cowboys, and the Dallas offense is less threatening than Philadelphia's. With a hold-prone underclassman rookie left tackle the Cowboys could be vulnerable on their pass attempts, which they might need to call more of than they would like if the Eagles offense forces the issue the way they usually do. The Dallas offense is more likely to unravel the faster the Philadelphia offense puts up points, because the way Dallas protects Rush and the rookie tackle Tyler Smith is by running the ball and denying the Eagles pass rush reps.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Mario Puig
Mario is a Senior Writer at RotoWire who primarily writes and projects for the NFL and college football sections.
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