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Indianapolis Colts at Dallas Cowboys Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions for Sunday Night Football Week 13
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The Colts (4-7-1) head down to Texas to take on the Dallas Cowboys (8-3) in a Week 13 Sunday Night Football interconference clash.
Indianapolis suffered a 24-17 loss to the Steelers on Monday Night Football to close out the Week 12 slate, its second loss in three games under interim head coach Jeff Saturday. Meanwhile, Dallas upended the Giants by a 28-20 score on Thanksgiving to improve its home mark to 5-1.
Indianapolis Colts at Dallas Cowboys for Sunday Night Football Week 13
*Best lines at time of writing listed
Moneyline: Colts +420 (DraftKings Sportsbook)/ Cowboys -500 (PointsBet Sportsbook)
Point spread: Colts +10.5 (PointsBet Sportsbook)/ Cowboys -10.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Totals: Over 43.5 points (FanDuel Sportsbook)/ Under 44.5 points (DraftKings Sportsbook)
The spread for this game has unsurprisingly only grown in favor of the Cowboys, with Week 12 outcomes adding to the public's faith in Dallas. The hosts started as nine-point favorites when the line was first released just before Thanksgiving, but it got as high as 11 points on multiple occasions during the week. It's subsequently toggled between 10 and 10.5 leading into gameday.
The total has also seen its fair share of movement, only to virtually end up where it started. The number opened at 44.5, took a tumble all the way to 42.5 earlier in the week, then subsequently shot back up to 44.5 before toggling between that number and 43.5 going into Sunday.
Indianapolis Colts at Dallas Cowboys Betting Picks This Week
If Hollywood were to have set out to craft a nightmare scenario for the Colts, it would have been hard-pressed to come up with something more daunting than Sunday night's matchup. Not only are the Cowboys at home for a primetime matchup in front of what will undoubtedly be a raucous crowd, but Dallas will also have a significant rest advantage on them. Furthermore, Dallas sports a league-best pass rush, while Indy and the mostly immobile Matt Ryan have been an absolute magnet for sacks all season.
Indy will be trying to make inroads against a Cowboys defense that's allowed a miserly 16.8 points per home game at a clip of just 313.5 total yards surrendered per contest there. Dallas has particularly made life difficult on quarterbacks, starting with its NFL-high 45 sacks and 11.5 percent adjusted sack rate, per Football Outsiders.
The Cowboys also have yielded just 12 touchdown passes all season against seven interceptions. Meanwhile, the Colts have conceded an NFL-high 42 sacks and Ryan himself has been responsible for 14 turnovers (10 interceptions, four lost fumbles). Indianapolis' best chance of keeping the defense honest and off Ryan will naturally be Jonathan Taylor, as the Cowboys are allowing 138.3 rushing yards per home game.
Meanwhile, Dak Prescott and company should eventually be able to wear down a Colts defense that's solid but will likely spend a lot of time on the field. Indy has been very good against the pass with just 198 passing yards per road game allowed, but the Tony Pollard-Ezekiel Elliott combo, which should have fresh legs considering the long layoff after Thanksgiving, should be able to make some inroads against a Colts defense allowing 130 rushing yards per game in the last three.
It won't necessarily be easy early for the Cowboys, but their numerous advantages should eventually lead to a successful night where they win fairly comfortably.
Colts at Cowboys Best Bets: Cowboys -10.5 (-105 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
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Indianapolis Colts at Dallas Cowboys Prediction
Cowboys 27, Colts 13
As already outlined, there are no shortages of disadvantages for the Colts in this scenario. The combination of the rest disparity between the clubs and the Cowboys' ability to apply relentless pressure should lead to plenty of shortened drives for Indy, including several that are likely to end with a turnover that will set up Prescott and company in great field position. As such, a win by Dallas going away is one I'm in the camp of.