This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
Last week was a non-event as virtually no one was knocked out. Let's take a look at Week 9:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49ers | CARDINALS | 47.60% | 450 | 81.82 | 8.65 |
| BILLS | Redskins | 20.10% | 400 | 80.00 | 4.02 |
| SEAHAWKS | Buccaneers | 15.40% | 260 | 72.22 | 4.28 |
| Cowboys | GIANTS | 4.00% | 320 | 76.19 | 0.95 |
| Packers | CHARGERS | 3.50% | 175 | 63.64 | 1.27 |
| PANTHERS | Titans | 2.70% | 195 | 66.10 | 0.92 |
| Jets | DOLPHINS | 2.10% | 160 | 61.54 | 0.81 |
| Browns | BRONCOS | 1.40% | 160 | 61.54 | 0.54 |
| EAGLES | Bears | 1.40% | 215 | 68.25 | 0.44 |
| Colts | Steelers | 0.40% | 110 | 52.38 | 0.19 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
Per the Vegas numbers, you could fade the 49ers and take the Bills or Cowboys as a pot-odds play, but I think the Bills have a worse chance than the market does. Cowboys/Niners is closer though.
A Niners win/Cowboys loss happens 19.68 percent of the time. A Cowboys win/Niners loss 13.68 percent. The ratio of 19.68/13.68 is 1.44. That's your risk ratio.
Using our standard 100-person pool with $10 buy-in example, if the 49ers lose/Cowboys win, that takes out 48 people, plus another 12 on other teams, leaving 40 left. $1000/40 = $25
If the Cowboys lose/49ers win, that takes out four people on the Cowboys and 12 on other teams. $1000/84 = $11.90. The ratio of $25 to $11.90 is 2.1. The reward for taking the Cowboys -- assuming you agree with the Vegas and polling numbers -- vastly outweighs the added risk.
Last week was a non-event as virtually no one was knocked out. Let's take a look at Week 9:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49ers | CARDINALS | 47.60% | 450 | 81.82 | 8.65 |
| BILLS | Redskins | 20.10% | 400 | 80.00 | 4.02 |
| SEAHAWKS | Buccaneers | 15.40% | 260 | 72.22 | 4.28 |
| Cowboys | GIANTS | 4.00% | 320 | 76.19 | 0.95 |
| Packers | CHARGERS | 3.50% | 175 | 63.64 | 1.27 |
| PANTHERS | Titans | 2.70% | 195 | 66.10 | 0.92 |
| Jets | DOLPHINS | 2.10% | 160 | 61.54 | 0.81 |
| Browns | BRONCOS | 1.40% | 160 | 61.54 | 0.54 |
| EAGLES | Bears | 1.40% | 215 | 68.25 | 0.44 |
| Colts | Steelers | 0.40% | 110 | 52.38 | 0.19 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
Per the Vegas numbers, you could fade the 49ers and take the Bills or Cowboys as a pot-odds play, but I think the Bills have a worse chance than the market does. Cowboys/Niners is closer though.
A Niners win/Cowboys loss happens 19.68 percent of the time. A Cowboys win/Niners loss 13.68 percent. The ratio of 19.68/13.68 is 1.44. That's your risk ratio.
Using our standard 100-person pool with $10 buy-in example, if the 49ers lose/Cowboys win, that takes out 48 people, plus another 12 on other teams, leaving 40 left. $1000/40 = $25
If the Cowboys lose/49ers win, that takes out four people on the Cowboys and 12 on other teams. $1000/84 = $11.90. The ratio of $25 to $11.90 is 2.1. The reward for taking the Cowboys -- assuming you agree with the Vegas and polling numbers -- vastly outweighs the added risk.
My Picks
1. Dallas Cowboys
I don't like the setup -- a road division game on Monday, the second time these teams have played. Moreover, Daniel Jones looked sharp last week, and the Cowboys secondary has been vulnerable. But the Cowboys have Tyron Smith back, and the Giants defense has trouble stopping anyone. I give the Cowboys a 74 percent chance to win.
2. San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers are killing teams, and it would be surprising if the Cardinals put up much resistance. But this is a road game on a short week, and Arizona isn't a complete doormat and just got its best player, Patrick Peterson, back. I give the 49ers an 80 percent chance to win this game.
3. Buffalo Bills
If Case Keenum can't play, move the Bills up to No. 1 -- I don't see Dwayne Haskins beating them on the road. But if Keenum does play, I expect this to be a game. The Bills defend the pass well, but their offense is suspect, and the Redskins could slug it out with them on the ground. I give the Bills a 74 percent chance to win this game.
4. Philadelphia Eagles
The Bears are tough defensively, but Mitch Trubisky has been a disaster this year, and the Eagles front seven is stout. I give the Eagles a 69 percent chance to win this game.
5. Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks are a good team, but their defense is mediocre, and the Buccaneers have a puncher's chance against almost anyone. Moreover, the Seahawks like to run the ball, and that's the stoutest part of Tampa's defense. I give the Seahawks a 72 percent chance to win this game.
6. Carolina Panthers
They got destroyed last week, but a home game against a poorly coached Titans squad quarterbacked by Ryan Tannehill is a better match-up. I give the Panthers a 67 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions: Packers, Jets, Browns
The Packers are playing their second straight road game against a Chargers team that's getting healthy, the Jets are on the road, and they're the Jets, while the Browns are on the road in altitude against a decent defense.
