This article is part of our Survivor series.
The Eagles' loss to the Cardinals last week likely settled some Survivors pools. That was the biggest upset as most of the other favorites won. The Buccaneers lost at home to the Saints, but they weren't that popular among Survivors.
Hopefully, your opponent had the Eagles and you won your pool. Congrats. Then again, if you won, you're probably not reading this week.
Anyhow, that brings us to the season finale. It's impossible to know how many readers made it this far (actually, I hope you won weeks ago), but to those still reading, thanks for being along for the ride. It's a fun time every week — well, not as fun since I lost in Week 10 — and a good time interacting in the comments.
On to Week 18.
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines, according to BetMGM. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN* | VEGAS ML** | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers | PANTHERS | 33.5% | 225 | 69.2% | 10.31 |
| Cowboys | COMMANDERS | 12.5% | 675 | 87.1% | 1.61 |
| BENGALS | Browns | 11.2% | 247.5 | 71.2% | 3.22 |
| PACKERS | Bears | 7.4% | 152.5 | 60.4% | 2.93 |
| Jaguars | TITANS | 6.0% | 205 | 67.2% | 1.97 |
| Raiders | Broncos | 3.9% | 132.5 | 57.0% | 1.68 |
| SAINTS | Falcons | 3.8% | 152.5 | 60.4% | 1.50 |
| PATRIOTS | Jets | 3.8% | 125 | 55.6% | 1.69 |
| Eagles | GIANTS | 3.7% | 225 | 69.2% | 1.14 |
| LIONS | Vikings | 2.3% | 160 | 61.5% | 0.88 |
| Steelers | RAVENS | 1.7% | 167.5 | 62.6% | 0.64 |
The Eagles' loss to the Cardinals last week likely settled some Survivors pools. That was the biggest upset as most of the other favorites won. The Buccaneers lost at home to the Saints, but they weren't that popular among Survivors.
Hopefully, your opponent had the Eagles and you won your pool. Congrats. Then again, if you won, you're probably not reading this week.
Anyhow, that brings us to the season finale. It's impossible to know how many readers made it this far (actually, I hope you won weeks ago), but to those still reading, thanks for being along for the ride. It's a fun time every week — well, not as fun since I lost in Week 10 — and a good time interacting in the comments.
On to Week 18.
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines, according to BetMGM. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN* | VEGAS ML** | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers | PANTHERS | 33.5% | 225 | 69.2% | 10.31 |
| Cowboys | COMMANDERS | 12.5% | 675 | 87.1% | 1.61 |
| BENGALS | Browns | 11.2% | 247.5 | 71.2% | 3.22 |
| PACKERS | Bears | 7.4% | 152.5 | 60.4% | 2.93 |
| Jaguars | TITANS | 6.0% | 205 | 67.2% | 1.97 |
| Raiders | Broncos | 3.9% | 132.5 | 57.0% | 1.68 |
| SAINTS | Falcons | 3.8% | 152.5 | 60.4% | 1.50 |
| PATRIOTS | Jets | 3.8% | 125 | 55.6% | 1.69 |
| Eagles | GIANTS | 3.7% | 225 | 69.2% | 1.14 |
| LIONS | Vikings | 2.3% | 160 | 61.5% | 0.88 |
| Steelers | RAVENS | 1.7% | 167.5 | 62.6% | 0.64 |
| Texans | COLTS | 1.2% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.57 |
| Seahawks | CARDINALS | 0.7% | 137.5 | 57.9% | 0.29 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
The Buccaneers are the overwhelming favorite this week, which would make for a good pot-odds play if this was midseason. But it's not. It's Week 18, which mean you have to do what you have to do. If you think your opponent(s) is going with Tampa Bay, then definitely pivot. Your pick depends on, in this order, a) the team your opponent(s) is likely to take and b) the best remaining team available.
Motivation is seemingly a bigger factor this week than any other. Some teams are fighting for playoff spots, other teams are waiting for tee times. A word of caution, though: just because a team has "nothing to play for" doesn't mean it will lay down. Playing for pride is a thing. The Packers had a playoff spot on the line last year, but the Lions, who were playing for nothing but pride, knocked them off in Green Bay.
Picks below are in order of preference. If there is a team not listed you are considering, sound off in the comments.
My Picks
Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys control their own destiny — a win locks up the NFC East and the No. 2 seed in the playoffs. The Commanders have lost seven in a row, including a 45-10 drubbing by the Cowboys on Thanksgiving. Make it eight losses in a row.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs laid a massive egg at home last week with the NFC South title on the line. They wouldn't pee down their leg two weeks in a row would they? Alas, the Panthers probably won't put up much resistance. If Baker Mayfield gets the deep ball going from the jump — unlike last week when it took until the fourth quarter to hit big plays — Tampa Bay should wrap up the division.
Detroit Lions
The Lions have clinched the NFC North but are still alive for the No. 2 seed. They need to win and have Dallas and Philadelphia lose. That's a bit of a longshot, but with their game in the morning window Sunday and the NFC East teams playing late, they can't take any chances. Plus, the Lions are still seething over last week's stolen game and likely will take out their frustration on a Vikings team that has lost five of six and mustered only 10 points last week. The Vikings are still alive for the playoffs, but they need a lot of help.
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jags clinch the AFC South with a win. A loss would leave them needing a bit of help to even make the playoffs. Trevor Lawrence could return this week, but backup C.J. Beathard is a good enough game manager to keep Jacksonville competitive if he's needed. The Titans are bad on both sides of the ball.
Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles are in a must-win game for the division crown, but they also a need a Cowboys loss. That makes this a bit risky. What if Dallas is blowing out Washington (they play the same time as the Eagles) and Philly decides to pull its starters, content with the No. 5 seed and a playoff date with the (bad) NFC South champ? On the other hand, the Eagles are desperate for a feel-good win before entering the playoffs after dropping four their last five — the only win coming against the Giants two weeks ago — which should give them enough motivation to play a full game.
Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks are mediocre, but the Cardinals are worse, last week's win against the Eagles notwithstanding. And that upset win probably works in Seattle's favor — the Seahawks won't take anything for granted. Seattle needs a win and a Packers loss to make the playoffs. The Cardinals are playing spoiler. This seems like a good bounce-back setup for the Seahawks after their dud of a game last week.
Notable Omissions:
Cincinnati Bengals
The Browns are locked into the fifth seed and are expected to rest starters. But the Bengals don't have any on the line either. They're eliminated from the playoffs and could rest gimpy players like Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Both teams have rivalry motivation, which puts them on a fairly equal footing and makes using the Bengals as a Survivor pick extremely risky.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Ravens likely will rest starters with the AFC's No. 1 seed in hand. The Steelers still have eyes for the playoffs, though they need help (a Bills or Jaguars loss). It would be just like the Steelers to drop this game. Last week at Seattle looked like a tough one, but they dominated; this week with everything on line ... choke? The Ravens will still be motivated to deny their fiercest rival a playoff berth. And is a Tyler Huntley-led Ravens team worse than a Mason Rudolph-led Steelers team? If Pittsburgh is your best option, sure, go for it. But I don't like it.
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