This article is part of our Survivor series.
Last week offered few Survivor surprises, though those who banked on the Eagles or Chiefs had to sweat things out.
In my pool, just four entrants were eliminated (one because of no pick). It's hard to remember a week the last couple years in which so few people were eliminated. In any event, of the original 414, 167 remain in my pool.
On to Week 5.
As usual, you are encouraged to read here and here for the methodology behind our Survivor strategy.
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN | VEGAS ML | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DOLPHINS | Giants | 42.8% | 475 | 82.6% | 7.44 |
| LIONS | Panthers | 39.0% | 400 | 80.0% | 7.80 |
| COMMANDERS | Bears | 9.4% | 225 | 69.2% | 2.89 |
| Bills (London) | Jaguars | 3.0% | 225 | 69.2% | 0.92 |
| Ravens | STEELERS | 1.1% | 172.5 | 63.3% | 0.40 |
| Bengals | CARDINALS | 0.8% | 147.5 | 59.6% | 0.32 |
| Chiefs | VIKINGS | 0.7% | 220 | 68.8% | 0.22 |
| Eagles | RAMS | 0.6% | 202.5 | 66.9% | 0.20 |
| Texans | FALCONS | 0.3% | 115 | 53.5% | 0.14 |
| Packers | RAIDERS | 0.3% | 120 | 54.5% | 0.14 |
| BRONCOS | Jets | 0.3% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.14 |
| PATRIOTS | Saints | 0.3% | 115 | 53.5% | 0.14 |
| 49ERS | Cowboys | 0.2% | 167.5 | 62.6% | 0.07 |
| COLTS | Titans | 0.1% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.05 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
Two big favorites this week in the Dolphins and Lions basically split the ownership with
Last week offered few Survivor surprises, though those who banked on the Eagles or Chiefs had to sweat things out.
In my pool, just four entrants were eliminated (one because of no pick). It's hard to remember a week the last couple years in which so few people were eliminated. In any event, of the original 414, 167 remain in my pool.
On to Week 5.
As usual, you are encouraged to read here and here for the methodology behind our Survivor strategy.
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN | VEGAS ML | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DOLPHINS | Giants | 42.8% | 475 | 82.6% | 7.44 |
| LIONS | Panthers | 39.0% | 400 | 80.0% | 7.80 |
| COMMANDERS | Bears | 9.4% | 225 | 69.2% | 2.89 |
| Bills (London) | Jaguars | 3.0% | 225 | 69.2% | 0.92 |
| Ravens | STEELERS | 1.1% | 172.5 | 63.3% | 0.40 |
| Bengals | CARDINALS | 0.8% | 147.5 | 59.6% | 0.32 |
| Chiefs | VIKINGS | 0.7% | 220 | 68.8% | 0.22 |
| Eagles | RAMS | 0.6% | 202.5 | 66.9% | 0.20 |
| Texans | FALCONS | 0.3% | 115 | 53.5% | 0.14 |
| Packers | RAIDERS | 0.3% | 120 | 54.5% | 0.14 |
| BRONCOS | Jets | 0.3% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.14 |
| PATRIOTS | Saints | 0.3% | 115 | 53.5% | 0.14 |
| 49ERS | Cowboys | 0.2% | 167.5 | 62.6% | 0.07 |
| COLTS | Titans | 0.1% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.05 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
Two big favorites this week in the Dolphins and Lions basically split the ownership with about 40 percent on each. As such, with two highly owned teams, a pot-odds play is not in the cards. Beyond those two, there are not a lot of mismatches with byes starting this week.
Picks below are in order of preference.
My Picks
Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins got tripped up at Buffalo last week, but their matchup against the hapless Giants looks like a classic get-right game. Daniel Jones got pummeled Monday by a Seahawks team not known for its pass rush, and even if LT Andrew Thomas returns from a hamstring injury, that won't solve all the pass-blocking problems. Perhaps if Saquon Barkley (ankle) plays, the Dolphins would have to at least think about something other than rushing the passer to stop the lowest-scoring team in the league. So, maybe this game is a touch closer than expected. But Tua Tagovailoa gets the ball out so quickly, the Giants, who rank 30th in QB pressure percentage, aren't likely to generate the type of pressure the Bills did last week. Bad team, on a short week, on the road against the most explosive offense in the league. No reason not to take the Dolphins this week.
Detroit Lions
The Lions' only loss this season came in OT to the Seahawks, the only game in which they gave up more than 20 points. They're also at home, which seems to matter to Jared Goff — 40/8 TD/INT at home vs. 14/10 on the road since coming to Detroit. The winless Panthers, who average a meager 16.8 points per game, aren't likely to keep up with a Lions offense that also gets back WR Jameson Williams and had a long week to prepare after playing last Thursday.
Washington Commanders
Washington is coming off a tough overtime loss to the Eagles that should have never went to OT, except Riverboat Ron wandered off course and crashed into the rocks. Fortunately for Washington, it gets the Bears at home Thursday night. Only the Bears could make the Broncos look competent, as they did last week. Alas, Thursday games have been known to go screwy, the Bears' offense looked better than it has all season last week and there's no trusting Ron Rivera to do the right thing. Miami or Detroit should be available to most, so why tinker with Washington?
Notable Omission:
Buffalo Bills
All things being equal, the Bills should pop the Jaguars. But things aren't equal, at least from a travel and preparation standpoint. The Jags stayed in London after blowing out the Falcons at Wembley Stadium on Sunday and get to prepare for the Bills like it's a normal week. Who knows how much that counts for anything, but there will be far better spots to use the Bills in Survivor this season — like next week against the Giants.
Kansas City Chiefs
Most have used the Chiefs already, so this is kind of a moot point. But the 0.7 percent of survivors who are on the Chiefs this week might want to rethink their pick. Other than a blowout of the doormat Bears, the Chiefs have struggled in every game. Now they go on the road to face a re-energized Vikings team coming off its first win of the season. Why go this route?
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