Target Breakdown: WR & TE Usage Report + Week 7 Waivers Preview

Box Score Breakdown

Backfield Breakdown

Target Breakdown ⬇️   

Trade Alert!

We get a bonus section this week, following Tuesday's big news that both AFC East teams from the MNF game have traded for star wide receivers*. 

Amari Cooper gets a huge boost just from escaping the mess in Cleveland, plus a secondary boost for being the obvious No. 1 receiver on a team with a top-five QB. Buffalo's running game has become one of the best in the league under OC Joe Brady, which means this offense isn't quite the receiving-production bonanza that Stefon Diggs took advantage of for years. The Bills may start passing more now that they have a legit WR1, and even if they don't, Cooper should see at least six targets per game while posting strong efficiency stats. The range of outcomes for fantasy stretches from low-end WR1 to high-end WR3.

That's slightly below the range of Davante Adams, who will join forces with old friend Aaron Rodgers in a more pass-oriented offense, but with solid target competition from Garrett Wilson and Allen Lazard. I think it'll be a co-No. 1 scenario with Adams and Wilson both seeing around eight targets and 70 yards per game, but there's at least some chance of Adams taking the clear lead and returning to his 10-target-per-week ways as a strong fantasy WR1. It remains to be seen if his hamstring injury is an ongoing problem or has already healed.

Wilson, Lazard and Khalil Shakir are the fantasy-relevant WRs that take hits to their volume projections, although Wilson will still be an every-week starter, and Shakir might not much suffer much given how different his route tree is from Cooper's. Lazard is the one who seems to have the narrowest path to success, with Adams presumably taking a lot of those high-value targets in the end zone and on contested catches downfield.

*Your turn, Kansas City. DeAndre Hopkins is still out there.

Weekly Injury Report 🚑

New Injuries

• WRs Dontayvion Wicks (shoulder) & Jayden Reed (ankle)
• WR Marvin Harrison (concussion)
• WRs Chris Olave (head) & Rashid Shaheed (knee)
• WR Elijah Moore (ribs)
• TE Dallas Goedert (hamstring)
• TE Hayden Hurst (groin)

The Packers got Christian Watson back from an ankle injury but then lost Wicks late in the first quarter and Reed in the second quarter. Reed returned to the game but didn't do much after rolling his ankle.

The Saints have bigger problems than Green Bay and much less depth, with Olave suffering his fourth concussion in a five-year span (third in the past three seasons) and Shaheed then hurting his knee. Olave won't play Thursday against the Broncos, and Shaheed might not either, potentially leaving rookie QB Spencer Rattler with two rookies (Bub Means, Mason Tipton) and Cedrick Wilson as his top wide receivers (Wilson has an ankle injury but should be able to play through it again).

The Cardinals theoretically have decent WR depth but aren't actually likely to have much luck on offense without Harrison, who suffered his second documented concussion (the other being Dec. 2022 at OSU) in the first quarter of Sunday's loss to Green Bay. Zay Jones is back from suspension but now dealing with a hamstring injury, and Greg Dortch is purely a slot specialist, which means mediocre Michael Wilson and undrafted rookie Xavier Weaver may be the top perimeter guys Sunday against the Chargers. Weaver replaced Harrison on Sunday and drew just one target on 23 routes.

Goedert was the only fantasy-relevant TE to go down this past Sunday, and he'll likely miss time with a hamstring injury after playing only a few snaps in the win over Cleveland. Grant Calcaterra took over all of Goedert's snaps, finishing with 92% snap share, 88% route share and a 4-67-0 receiving line on four targets (tied for second most on the team).

Missed Week 6

• WR Malik Nabers (concussion / day-to-day)
• WR Davante Adams (hamstring / day-to-day / traded)
• WR Jakobi Meyers (ankle / day-to-day)
• WR Trey Palmer (concussion / day-to-day)
• WR Robert Woods (foot / day-to-day)
•   WR Nico Collins (hamstring / eligible to return from IR in Week 10)
• WR Puka Nacua (IR - knee / likely out until November)
• WR Ricky Pearsall (NFI - chest / eligible since Week 5)
• WR DJ Chark (IR - hip / eligible since Week 5)
• WR Brandin Cooks (IR - ankle / eligible Week 10)
• WR Josh Reynolds (IR - finger / eligible Week 10)
• WR Marquise Brown (IR - shoulder / likely out for season)

Not mentioned above are Rams WRs Cooper Kupp (ankle) and Jordan Whittington (shoulder), who were on bye Week 6 and now have a favorable Week 7 matchup against the Raiders. There hasn't been any indication Whittington's injury is serious, but Kupp's obviously was (he hasn't played since Week 2 and is uncertain for this week). Whittington drew 18 targets in the last two games before the bye, catching 13 passes for 151 yards. He's a WR3 for fantasy if he's ready by Sunday and Kupp isn't.

• TE Taysom Hill (ribs)
• TE Michael Mayer (personal / IR)
• TE Tyler Higbee (PUP - ACL / eligible since Week 5)
• TE T.J. Hockenson (PUP - ACL / eligible since Week 5)

Stock Report 📊

I'm focusing on role/usage more so than results/performance here, although there are certainly cases where the two are related or poor per-target efficiency can't just be written off as a small-sample or matchup problem. Unless otherwise specified, the target, route and air-yard shares shown next to each player are from all the games they've played in this season. I'll use 'W6' to denote stats from just the last game.

• AYS = Air-Yard Share (percent of team's air yards in games a player participated in)
• TS = Target Share (percent of team's targets in games a player participated in)

Trending Up 📈

Wide Receivers 📈

Amari Cooper - traded from Cleveland to Buffalo

Davante Adams - reuniting with Aaron Rodgers

George Pickens - possible QB change  /  SZN: 31% TPRR, 29% TS, 48% AYS

Drake London - SZN: 28% TS, 34% AYS, 27% TPRR  /  W6: 10 tgts, 88 AY (6-74-1)

Tank Dell - W6: 91% routes, 9 tgts, 71 AY (7-57-1)

DeAndre Hopkins - W6: 71% snaps, 67% routes, 6 tgts, 79 AY (4-54-0)

DeMario Douglas - W6: 68% routes, 9 tgts, 69 AY (6-92-1)

Jerry Jeudy - Jameis Winston's WR1 later this season?

Darius Slayton - 11 tgts in back-to-back games (W6: 6-57-0 w/ 102 AY)

Noah Brown - W6: 66% routes, 8 tgts, 101 AY (4-58-0)  /  SZN: 25% TPRR, 24% AYS

Troy Franklin - SZN: 26% TPRR  /  W6: 71% routes, 3 tgts, 47 AY (2-31-1)

Bub Means - W6: 71% routes, 8 tgts, 75 AY (5-45-1)  /  Olave+Shaheed injuries

Sterling Shepard - W6: 86% routes, 4 tgts, 25 AY (3-23-0) + 4-31-0 rushing

Kayshon Boutte - W6: 76% routes, 3 tgts, 56 AY (3-59-1) 

Jalen Coker - W6: 74% routes, 3 tgts, 26 AY (3-30-0)

Tight Ends 📈

George Kittle - SZN: 23% TS, 26% TPRR  /  W6: 6 tgts, 50 AY (5-58-2)

Trey McBride - SZN: 26% TS, 24% AYS, 29% TPRR  /  W6: 8 tgts, 63 AY (8-96-0)

Brock Bowers - SZN: 23% TS, 19% AYS, 29% TPRR  /  W6: 10 tgts, 46 AY (9-71-0)

Evan Engram - W6: 74% routes, 10 tgts, 49 AY (10-102-0 + lost fumble)

Cole Kmet - 14.4 PPR per game, 1.97 YPPR from Weeks 2-6

Noah Fant - W6: season-high 77% routes, 6 tgts (6-63-0)

Dalton Schultz - W6: 82% routes, 8 tgts, 61 AY (4-27-0)

Mark Andrews - W6: 57% routes, 4 tgts, 59 AY (3-66-1)... baby steps

Ja'Tavion Sanders - W6: 71% routes, 7 tgts, 42 AY (5-49-0)  /  12 tgts past 2 weeks

Grant Calcaterra - W6: 92% snaps, 88% routes, 4 tgts, 22 AY (4-67-0)

Will Dissly - W6: 67% snaps, 54% routes, 5 tgts, 6 AY (4-26-0)

Trending Down 📉

Wide Receivers 📉

Garrett Wilson & Allen Lazard - target competition from Adams

Khalil Shakir - target competition from Cooper

Lil'Jordan Humphrey - W6: 23% routes, 1 tgt (1-8-0)

Ja'Lynn Polk - W6: 70% routes / 4 tgts (1-4-0) / coach not pleased with performance

Jalen McMillan - W6: 19% routes / 1 tgts (zero catches)

Luke McCaffrey - 11% TPRR / W6: 37% routes, 1 tgt (1-5-0)

Xavier Hutchinson - W6: 48% snaps / 47% routes / 2 tgts (no catches)

Jonathan Mingo - W6: 34% routes, 1 tgt

Tight Ends 📉

Sam LaPorta - SZN: 10% TS, 8% AYS, 13% TPRR

Mike Gesicki - W6: 38% Routes, zero tgts

Waivers Look-Ahead ±

*Only includes players rostered in 60 percent or less of Yahoo Leagues

Wide Receivers

Potential Starters

1. Ladd McConkey - 57%
2. Jakobi Meyers - 50% (ankle) 
3. Jordan Whittington - 9%
4. Tyler Lockett - 53%  
5. Josh Downs - 48%
6. Christian Watson - 41% 
7. Michael Wilson - 16% 
8. Jerry Jeudy - 39%
9. Romeo Doubs - 35%
10. Allen Lazard - 41% 
11. DeMario Douglas - 7%
12. Tutu Atwell - 12% 
13. Rashod Bateman - 11%
14. Darius Slayton - 34%
15. Noah Brown - 1%
16. Demarcus Robinson - 12%
17. JuJu Smith-Schuster - 32%

I'm not sure what Whittington's role will be once Cooper Kupp (ankle) returns, but the rookie has played well enough that we can't assume he'll simply head back to the bench. Whittington obviously moves down this list if Kupp ends up playing this week, but for now it looks like Whittington has the best Week 7 volume projection among WRs rostered in less than 40% of Yahoo leagues.

Some will be surprised to see Downs ranked so low here, but I don't have much confidence in continued production with QB Anthony Richardson returning this week. Richardson is a problem for Downs' outlook for various reasons, including the tendency to scramble or throw deep on dropbacks (whereas Joe Flacco is much more likely to attempt short passes). Downs has looked fantastic and will still have plays drawn up for him, but he's probably more of a 5-7 target player with Richardson under center.

Bench Stashes

1. DeAndre Hopkins - 51%
2. Dontayvion Wicks - 49% (shoulder)
3. Xavier Legette - 19%
4. Quentin Johnston - 22%
5. Tre Tucker - 14%
6. Jalen Tolbert - 35%
7. Ja'Lynn Polk - 8%
8. Adam Thielen - 12% (IR - hamstring)
9. Kayshon Boutte - 0%
10. Jalen Coker - 0%

Potential Drops

• Jauan Jennings - 43% (shallow leagues)
• Keon Coleman - 42%
• Alec Pierce - 31%
• Mike Williams - 15%
• Joshua Palmer - 15%
• Brandin Cooks - 14%
• Curtis Samuel - 13%
• Jahan Dotson - 5%
• Xavier Hutchinson - 3%

Tight Ends

Recommended Adds

1. Noah Fant - 27% 
2. Taysom Hill - 33% (ribs)
3. Colby Parkinson - 16% 
4. Zach Ertz - 25%  
5. Hunter Henry - 26%
6. Cade Otton - 36%
7. Tyler Conklin - 31%
8. Ja'Tavion Sanders - 1%
9. Grant Calcaterra - 0%
10. Jonnu Smith - 4%
11. Theo Johnson - 2%
12. Juwan Johnson - 3%
13. Will Dissly - 0%

The Saints have so little going from them on offense right now that we could see a heavy-usage game for Hill this Thursday (if he's deemed ready to return from a rib injury). Otherwise, it's about the same as ever for streaming options in medium-depth leagues, featuring the usual crew of Fant/Parkinson/Ertz/Henry/Otton/Conklin. Parkinson has the best volume projection of the group but may also be the worst player. 

In deep leagues where all those guys are taken, we have some semi-interesting options this week after Sanders, Calcaterra and Dissly all took on larger workloads due to teammate injuries. Sanders is by far the most promising in terms of receiving talent, but he's also a rookie on a bad team, and fellow Panthers tight end Tommy Tremble may clear concussion protocol this week. If nothing else, Sanders is intriguing as a bench stash for deep leagues and dynasty.

Potential Drops

• Isaiah Likely - 59%
• Luke Musgrave - 22% (IR - ankle)
• Mike Gesicki - 17%