Target Breakdown: WR & TE Usage Report + Week 8 Waivers Preview

Box Score Breakdown

Backfield Breakdown

Target Breakdown ⬇️   

Weekly Injury Report 🚑

New Injuries

• WR Chris Godwin (ankle / out for season)
• WR Mike Evans (hamstring / week-to-week)
• WR Brandon Aiyuk (ACL / out for season)
• WR Deebo Samuel (pneumonia / unclear)
• WR DK Metcalf (MCL sprain / week-to-week)
• WR Jameson Williams (suspension / Week 10 return)
• WR Zay Flowers (ankle / returned to game)
• WR DeAndre Hopkins (leg / day-to-day)
• WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (hamstring / out Week 8 at least)
• WR Jordan Whittington (shoulder / day-to-day)
• WRs Ja'Lynn Polk (head / day-to-day) & DeMario Douglas (illness / day-to-day)
• WR Chris Conley (ankle / day-to-day)
• WR Curtis Samuel (shoulder)
• TE George Kittle (foot sprain / day-to-day)

Week 7 was absolutely brutal for WR injuries, including season-enders to Chris Godwin and Brandon Aiyuk. With Mike Evans looking likely to miss multiple games and Deebo Samuel dealing with pneumonia, there was a double dose of bad news for Tampa and San Francisco. The 49ers were already playing without Jauan Jennings (hip) this past Sunday, which meant rookie first-round pick Ricky Pearsall had an every-down role in his NFL debut (Chris Conley also played a lot, while Ronnie Bell and Jacob Cowing shared snaps). Adding injury to injury, Conley suffered an ankle sprain and TE George Kittle a mid-foot sprain.

The news is less awful for DK Metcalf and Jameson Williams, with the former picking up a Grade 1 MCL sprain (least severe type) and the latter set to return Week 10 after serving a two-game suspension for a PED violation (he likely tested positive for a masking agent, given the relatively short length of his suspension).

On top of the regular fantasy starters that went down this past weekend, there were a couple popular waiver adds from recent weeks (Jordan Whittington, DeMario Douglas) who saw their snaps severely limited by injury/illness.

Missed Week 7

• WR Cooper Kupp (ankle / day-to-day)
• WR Jauan Jennings (hip / day-to-day)
• WR Chris Olave (head / day-to-day)
• WR Jakobi Meyers (ankle / day-to-day)
• WR Robert Woods (foot / day-to-day)
• WR Roman Wilson (hamstring / day-to-day)
•   WR Nico Collins (hamstring / eligible to return from IR in Week 10)
• WR Puka Nacua (IR - knee / likely out until November)
• WR Ricky Pearsall (NFI - chest / eligible since Week 5)
• WR DJ Chark (IR - hip / eligible since Week 5)
• WR Brandin Cooks (IR - ankle / eligible Week 10)
• WR Josh Reynolds (IR - finger / eligible Week 10)
• WR Marquise Brown (IR - shoulder / likely out for season)

Rams WR Cooper Kupp is expected back Thursday night against the Vikings, and Saints WR Chris Olave seemingly has at least a 50/50 chance to clear concussion protocol. Timelines are less clear for Raiders WR Jakobi Meyers and 49ers WR Jauan Jennings, with meaningful updates yet to be provided this week.

• TE Dallas Goedert (hamstring / week-to-week)
• TE Hayden Hurst (groin / week-to-week)
• TE Taysom Hill (ribs / day-to-day)
• TE Michael Mayer (personal / IR)
• TE Tyler Higbee (PUP - ACL / eligible since Week 5)
• TE T.J. Hockenson (PUP - ACL / eligible since Week 5)

Vikings TE T.J. Hockenson has been practicing since Oct. 4 and thus needs to be activated from PUP by Friday. The Vikings haven't said if they'll bring him back for Thursday's game against the Rams or wait another day to put him back on the roster (I'm guessing it'll be the latter, but who knows). Saints TE Taysom Hill has a decent shot to return this week, while Eagles TE Dallas Goedert and Chargers TE Hayden Hurst seem less likely after sitting out practice all last week.

Stock Report 📊

I'm focusing on role/usage more so than results/performance here, although there are certainly cases where the two are related or poor per-target efficiency can't just be written off as a small-sample or matchup problem. Unless otherwise specified, the target, route and air-yard shares shown next to each player are from all the games they've played in this season. I'll use 'W7' to denote stats from just the last game.

• AYS = Air-Yard Share (percent of team's air yards in games a player participated in)
• TS = Target Share (percent of team's targets in games a player participated in)

Trending Up 📈

Wide Receivers 📈

Tee Higgins - 28% TPRR, 29% TS, 42% AYS

Romeo Doubs - past two week: 24% TPRR, 11-143-2 on team-high 14 tgts, 171 AY

George Pickens - W7: 93% routes, 9 tgts (33% TS), 149 AY, (5-111-1)

Jauan Jennings - W7: out with hip injury, but Aiyuk OFS and Samuel has pneumonia

Ricky Pearsall - W7: 79% snaps, 81% routes, 5 tgts, 41 AY (3-21-0)

Rashod Bateman - SZN: 29% AYS  /  250 yards, two TDs over past three games

Keon Coleman - W7: 76% snaps, 82% routes, 7 tgts, 92 AY (4-125-0)

Jalen Nailor - W7: 81% snaps, 81% routes, 5 tgts, 59 AY (4-76-0)

Jalen McMillan - W7: 56% routes, 8 tgts, 109 AY on 27 routes (3-15-0 plus one carry for 11)

Trey Palmer - W7: 81% routes, but targeted on just three of 39 routes (1-16-0)

Sterling Shepard - W7: 56% routes, but targeted on just one of 27 routes

Troy Franklin - SZN: 28% TPRR  /  W7: 65% routes, team-high 6 tgts, 49 AY (5-50-0)

Cedric Tillman - W7: 82% routes, 12 targets, 124 AY (8-81-0)

Tutu Atwell - SZN: 26% TPRR  /  W7: 92% routes, team-high 9 tgts  /  Kupp trade rumors?

Mason Tipton - W7: 89% routes, team-high 9 tgts, 110 AY (6-45-0)

Jacob Cowing - W7: 22% routes, 3 tgts, 45 AY (2-50-0)

Bills WR Keon Coleman had his best game yet in Amari Cooper's Buffalo debut, but that was with Cooper in a part-time role (33% snaps, 32% routes) and each of Coleman's seven targets coming when Cooper wasn't on the field. The big day is still encouraging for Coleman's long-term outlook, but short-term he'll likely be fourth in line for targets behind Cooper, TE Dalton Kincaid and Khalil Shakir in what's suddenly a pretty-good-looking group of pass catchers.

Browns WR Cedric Tillman is probably the fool's gold of the week. He's worth adding in deep formats, but he's mostly looked bad in the NFL, and his 12-target outing is less impressive in the context of Cleveland running 77 plays and 56 dropbacks. The chances of Tillman actually taking over all of Cooper's vacated volume are very low. On the other hand, there's finally hope for Cleveland's passing game now that Deshaun Watson (Achilles) is out for the season. Said hope depends on Jameis Winston starting over Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who replaced Watson on Sunday but then left with a finger injury — one that isn't thought to be too serious but may cost him Weeks 8 and 9. (The Browns have a Week 10 bye, so they may be inclined toward caution for Week 9.)

Tight Ends 📈

Brock Bowers - SZN: 30% TPRR, 25% TS, 21% AYS  /  W7: season-high 87% routes

David Njoku - SZN: 28% TPRR  /  W7: 79% routes, 14 tgts, 71 AY (10-76-1)

Evan Engram - SZN: 30% TPRR, 26% TS, 75% routes

Kyle Pitts - three straight games w/ at least 65 yards, 10 PPR points, 5 tgts

Cade Otton - W7: 90% routes, 10 tgts, 82 AY (8-100-0)  /  Godwins + Evans injuries

Hunter Henry - SZN: 21% TPRR, 20% TS, 24% AYS  /  W7: team-high 9 tgts, 100 AY (8-92-0)

Jonnu Smith - SZN: 26% TPRR  /  W7: 71% routes, 7 tgts, 46 AY (7-96-1)

Will Dissly - SZN: 34% TPRR (lol)  /  W7: 71% routes, team-high 11 tgts, 62 AY (8-81-0)

Ja'Tavion Sanders - 3 straight games w/ 5+ tgts  /  W7: team-high 6 tgts (6-61-0)

Dolphins TE Jonnu Smith was the big surprise of the week, putting up a huge stat line after seeing eight targets in the previous game. He's still playing only about half the snaps, but he's been on the field for most of the pass plays recently and is shockingly tied with Tyreek Hill for the highest target rate (per route) on the team. That'll likely shift more toward Hill with QB Tua Tagovailoa returning this week, but Smith is a good player who has long been one of the top YAC threats at his position, and his usage is trending strongly upward.

Trending Down 📉

Wide Receivers 📉

Ja'Marr Chase - 20% TPRR / Tee Higgins' sidekick? (kidding, kind of)

Courtland Sutton - W7: 0 tgts on 22 routes  /  last 3 games: 11 tgts, 85 yards

Tank Dell - SZN: 18% TPRR  /  W7: 4 tgts, 57 AY (no catches, dropped TD)

DeVonta Smith - 20% TS, 14% AYS with AJB on the field this year

Jameson Williams - W7: 1 tgt on 23 routes  /  two-game suspension

Josh Downs - 8 tgts in two full games w/ Richardson  / 13 of 81 Richardson targets in 2023

Christian Kirk - 18% TS in games Engram has played

Jaxon Smith-Njigba - SZN: 20% TPRR, 1.16 YPRR 

Allen Lazard - W7: season-low 58% snaps, 63% routes, 4 tgts, 45 AY (but put up 4-58-0)

DeAndre Hopkins - W7: 51% routes, one tgt on 22 routes, minor leg injury

Christian Watson - SZN: 15% TPRR  /  W7: 50% routes, 2 tgts, 30 AY (1-9-0)

Ray-Ray McCloud - 14% TPRR over past three games

Darius Slayton - W7: 1 tgt on 36 routes  /  11% TPRR in games Nabers has played

Jalen Coker - SZN: 13% TPRR  /  W7: 1 tgt on 12 routes (60% route share)

Bengals WR Ja'Marr Chase continues putting up big numbers despite disappointing usage, with per-target efficiency that tops even his rookie year or Brandon Aiyuk's 2023. Chase is producing as a high-end WR1 and obviously has that level of talent, but I do have some slight concern about a few bust weeks ahead given that Tee Higgins is repeatedly out-targeting his more talented teammate (Higgins is a great player as well, of course, and the Bengals probably should've paid him as such). To be clear, my concern here is that Chase might only be a mid-range WR1 moving forward, rather than an elite one. At minimum, I'd rather have Justin Jefferson or CeeDee Lamb as my WR1, even though Chase has comfortably outproduced Lamb so far. 

A.J. Brown, on the other hand, is dominating volume ahead of his team's excellent No. 2 receiver. DeVonta Smith likely will gain some ground there, but it's now two seasons in a row with Brown being way, way ahead, whereas in 2022 the targets were split evenly between them.

Tight Ends 📉

Noah Fant - W7: 50% snaps, 47% routes (but with 4-65-0 on just 14 routes)

Colby Parkinson - W7: season-low 65% snaps, 46% routes, 2 tgts, 7 AY (2-32-0)

Grant Calcaterra - W7: 1 tgt on 16 routes  /  SZN: 13% TPRR

Waivers Look-Ahead ±

*Only includes players rostered in 60 percent or less of Yahoo Leagues

Wide Receivers

Potential Starters

1. Ladd McConkey - 60%
2. Tyler Lockett - 57%
3. Romeo Doubs - 44%
4. Khalil Shakir - 59%
5. Ricky Pearsall - 13%
6. Jerry Jeudy - 48%
7. Jalen Tolbert - 20%
8. Tutu Atwell - 10%
9. Jalen McMillan - 1%
10. Rashod Bateman - 16%
11. Michael Wilson - 18%
12. Tim Patrick - 1%
13. Jalen Nailor - 2%
14. Tre Tucker - 10%
15. Noah Brown - 2%
16. Kayshon Boutte - 1%
17. Sterling Shepard - 0%
18. Mason Tipton - 1%
19. Trey Palmer - 0%
20. Chris Conley - 0% (ankle)

The glut of WR injuries means there are a lot of reasonable waiver options, including in deep leagues where that's not normally the case. Pearsall and McMillan figure to dominate a lot of the fantasy discussion, but don't forget about guys like Jalen Tolbert, Tutu Atwell and Rashod Bateman who have already displayed a reasonable level of production this year.

Bench Stashes

1. Jauan Jennings - 30% (hip)
2. Jakobi Meyers - 55% (ankle)
3. Dontayvion Wicks - 27%
4. DeAndre Hopkins - 49% (leg)
5. Jordan Whittington - 14% (shoulder) 
6. Keon Coleman - 32%
7. Cedric Tillman - 0%
8. Xavier Legette - 19%
9. Troy Franklin - 1%
10. Quentin Johnston - 18% (ankle)
11. Adam Thielen - 12% (IR - hamstring)
12. Jacob Cowing - 0%
13. Bub Means - 9%

Jennings and Meyers look shaky for Week 8 but should have key roles whenever they return. Both are established as above-average players, and they're now on teams that have huge vacancies where things previously looked crowded. Whittington and Wicks are good stashes due to their high target rates when on the field, perhaps putting each of them just one injury away from seeing 6-7 targets per game (and likely with decent efficiency). Hopkins we're only stashing because he might be traded, as there's no hope for Tennessee's passing offense with Will Levis (shoulder) or Mason Rudolph playing QB under Brian Callahan (who looks like a potential one-and-done coach given that he's responsible for the offensive scheme/playcalling).

Potential Drops

1. Christian Watson - 52% (shallow leagues)
2. JuJu Smith-Schuster - 45% (shallow leagues)
3. Darius Slayton - 20%
4. Alec Pierce - 22%
5. Ray-Ray McCloud - 20%
6. Curtis Samuel - 12% (shoulder)
7. Andrei Iosivas - 5%
8. Greg Dortch - 5%

Tight Ends

Recommended Adds

1. Cade Otton - 38%
2. Hunter Henry - 31%
3. Zach Ertz - 30%
4. Jonnu Smith - 4%
5. Will Dissly - 0%
6. Tyler Conklin - 22% 
7. Ja'Tavion Sanders - 1%
8. Noah Fant - 30% 
9. Taysom Hill - 29% (ribs)
10. Isaiah Likely - 53%
11. Noah Gray - 1%
12. Juwan Johnson - 4%
13. Lucas Krull - 0%

Bucs TE Cade Otton is the main attraction, coming off a 100-yard game in a pass-first offense that just lost its top two WRs to serious injuries. The Bucs many not be pass-first anymore, but Otton's target share figures to rise, albeit while eating from a smaller pie (and likely with fewer total yards/TDs to go around in the offense).

Patriots TE Hunter Henry is also coming off a big game and facing weak target competition from his team's WRs, and he's seen 14 targets in two weeks since Drake Maye took over as the starting QB. Commanders TE Zach Ertz is another solid streamer, having seen either four or five targets in five of his seven games this year.

If you're looking at riskier guys and/or need lower-owned options, Dolphins TE Jonnu Smith and Chargers TE Will Dissly both just had big games. And then there's Ja'Tavion Sanders, who has been about the only bright spot for the Panthers in recent weeks. Dissly and Sanders may lose some snaps/routes when teammates get healthier, but that's not guaranteed in light of their recent performance.

Potential Drops

1. Colby Parkinson - 23% (shallow leagues)
2. Luke Musgrave - 20% (IR - hamstring)
3. Mike Gesicki - 11%