This article is part of our Showdown/Single Game DFS Breakdown series.
This Thursday's NFL action is much better than last week's Titans vs. Jaguars debacle, with the Packers hosting the Eagles in a game with a 46.0-point total and the home team a 4.5-point favorite. The Packers come in 3-0 after beating the Bears 10-3, Vikings 21-16 and Broncos 27-16, though it's surprisingly not been because of excellent play from quarterback Aaron Rodgers (more on that later). Heading to Wisconsin are the Eagles, who are a surprising 1-2 after beating Washington 32-27 in their opener (a game they trailed 17-0) and then losing 24-20 to the Falcons in Atlanta and 27-24 to the Lions in Philadelphia. The team has dealt with a plethora of injuries, mostly to their pass catchers, though they also haven't gotten much consistency from their running backs, only one of whom is averaging more than 4.0 yards per carry, and he has as many carries as quarterback Carson Wentz.
QUARTERBACKS
Despite having one of the best quarterbacks in the history of the league, the Packers haven't been using Aaron Rodgers ($10,800 DK, $15,000 FD) as much as in recent years. As RotoWire's Jerry Donabedian points out in this week's Hidden Stat Line article (a must-read each week), Rodgers ranks 23rd in dropbacks and tied for 19th in pass attempts this season. Their 3-0 record appropriately indicates that they haven't been passing as much because they've been ahead, but they have the 11th-highest run rate on first and second downs in the first half, which would make more sense if their running backs were more effective than they've been (more on that later). Rodgers is always capable of a big game, and it could certainly happen Thursday against an Eagles secondary that has allowed the fourth-most DraftKings fantasy points to wide receivers this season and the ninth-most to quarterbacks. Given the name recognition and the fact the Packers are favored at home, Rodgers will almost certainly be highly owned and a popular captain/MVP selection.
Meanwhile, Carson Wentz ($10,000 DK, $14,500 FD) will have his hands full against a Packers defense that's allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks through three games, though he's certainly better than the trio of quarterbacks to face them this season: Mitchell Trubisky, Kirk Cousins and Joe Flacco. Injuries contributed greatly to Wentz's struggles over the past two games, a span that saw him throw for 490 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions, as DeSean Jackson, Alshon Jeffery and Dallas Goedert were hurt in Week 2 at Atlanta, and only Goedert was active for their Week 3 game against Detroit and he only played nine snaps. If there's a positive for Wentz it's that his 9.7 aDOT is higher than all but seven quarterbacks in the league, but that's countered by the fact that he completed 58.1 percent of his passes against the Falcons and 52.8 percent against the Lions. The Eagles did drop five passes this past Sunday, and two balls were batted at the line, but they'll still need significant improvements to hang with the Packers. Rodgers will surely be popular, and while there should be points in this game, it's tough to see a lineup that has both quarterbacks outscoring those with only one (or possibly zero).
WIDE RECEIVERS/TIGHT ENDS
The gap between Davante Adams ($11,000 DK, $14,000 FD) and Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($7,600 DK, $11,000 FD) has never been smaller, as both players were targeted 21 times in three games, with Adams catching 15 for 198 yards and Valdes-Scantling 13 for 170 and one touchdown (admittedly, it came on a free play due to an offsides penalty). They also offered similar potential, as Valdes-Scantling has a slight edge in air yards at 227 to 225 and a 10.8 aDOT versus Adams' 10.7. Adams does have twice as many red-zone targets as Valdes-Scantling, a stat that turns out to be worthless when you see it's a two-to-one (in total, not just ratio) advantage, with MVS' actually coming from inside the five-yard line, unlike Adams' which were outside the 10. Geronimo Allison ($4,200 DK, $7,000 FD) seems to be a forgotten man, catching five of seven targets for 24 yards (24 air yards) and a less-than-enticing 3.0 aDOT, with his receiving yards trailing all three Packers tight ends, none of whom have more than four catches or 35 yards. Allison does have a receiving touchdown, something Jimmy Graham ($4,400 DK, $6,500 FD) can also say, though that came in Week 1 and he was targeted just once in each of the next two games. Relying on Allison in cash games seems like a stretch, even with a slightly discounted salary, as the targets just aren't there for a player who trails Robert Tonyan ($200 DK, $5,000 FD) and Marcedes Lewis ($600 DK, $5,000 FD) in air yards. Then again, Allison will certainly be more reliable than Jake Kumerow ($200 DK, $5,000 FD), who has caught 100 percent of his one target this season, going for 12 yards (including eight after the catch).
Alshon Jeffery ($8,200 DK, $12,000 FD) is the most expensive Eagles wide receiver on DraftKings and second-highest on FanDuel, but he wasn't overly productive in the season opener, catching five of seven targets for 49 yards and a touchdown before suffering an injury early in Week 2. However, he practiced fully this week and should be a full go, likely taking some ownership for those who want to rely on the Eagles having to pass their way back into the game. The absence of DeSean Jackson, whose 14.6 aDOT is the third-highest on the team, will allow for more snaps for Nelson Agholor ($7,800 DK, $12,500 FD), Mack Hollins ($2,400 DK, $8,000) and J.J. Arcega-Whiteside ($1,800 DK, $6,500 FD), a situation we saw last week when Agholor caught eight of 12 targets for 50 yards and two touchdowns, his second consecutive game with at least 11 targets, eight receptions and a score. Agholor now leads the team in air yards (256) and receptions (18), though it wouldn't be surprising to see his production slow with Jeffery back. Meanwhile, Hollins, who had four catches on seven targets for 62 yards, is expected to again play ahead of Arcega-Whiteside, who has caught just one pass in each of the past two games, accumulating 14 yards on seven targets. Arcega-Whiteside seems much closer to a punt than a well-thought-out-low-owned play, even with a team-high 21.0 aDOT. Meanwhile, Hollins has some intrigue with 187 air yards in three games, trailing only Agholor and tight end Zach Ertz ($9,200 DK, $11,500 FD). The 229 air yards for Ertz are the third-most among tight ends in the NFL, trailing only Travis Kelce (272) and Greg Olsen (249), though his 7.6 aDOT leaves plenty to be desired, especially after being targeted 16 times in Week 2, more than his other two games combined. Ertz did have six red-zone targets in that Falcons game, though only one was inside the 10, and he hasn't gotten a red-zone look in any other game. Unfortunately, he comes in against a Packers defense that has allowed the third-fewest tight end fantasy points this season, though similar to the QB stats, the tight ends they've faced this season aren't great players. Meanwhile, backup tight end Dallas Goedert ($1,000 DK, $5,000 FD) has a 15.0 aDOT on his four targets, but it's tough to justify his inclusion unless you're solely looking for a long shot.
RUNNING BACKS
The Packers have been running the ball a lot for a team that has Aaron Rodgers under center, and it's not just because they've been ahead in games. Then again, you could also wonder why they're doing it because neither Aaron Jones ($9,000 DK, $13,000 FD) nor Jamaal Williams ($5,000 DK, $9,000 FD) is averaging more than 4.0 yards per carry, with Jones needing 46 carries to reach 174 yards and Williams 26 to reach 87. Williams has been somewhat solid in the passing game, catching seven of eight targets for 55 yards, but he comes in with minus-20 air yards and a minus-2.5 aDOT, so any expectation of big plays from Williams will obviously not come from deep passes (in fairness, that's pretty much the case with any running back). Meanwhile, Jones has a clear majority of the backfield touches, and his six red-zone targets, including three inside the five-yard line, are six and three more than Williams, respectively. Williams' lone touchdown did come in the red zone, but it was a reception from beyond 10 yards, so it's clear the close-to-the-goal-line work is for Jones, who has two red-zone targets, including one inside the 10. Jones was excellent in Week 2 against Minnesota, rushing 23 times for 116 yards and a touchdown, but he really struggled racking up yards last week against Denver, rushing 10 times for 19 yards; thankfully for those who had him, two of those 10 rushes ended up as touchdowns. The difficulty with relying on Jones or Williams is that the Eagles have allowed the fifth-fewest running back fantasy points this season, and part of that is simply because their secondary is so bad that teams are better off trying to beat them there. With Rodgers under center, it certainly seems like a reasonable plan to use his arm to move the ball against the Eagles and not Jones and/or Williams legs.
The Packers have been the total opposite, allowing the third-most running back fantasy points this season, but the Eagles have done nothing in three games to make it easy to rely on one of their backs. Simply put, Miles Sanders ($6,200 DK, $10,000 FD) leads the team in rushing attempts (34) and rushing yards (106), Jordan Howard ($4,600 DK, $9,000 FD) is the only running back to score a touchdown and Darren Sproles ($2,800 DK, $6,000 FD) leads them in yards per carry (4.6). Sanders leads the team with seven red-zone carries, but Howard's five aren't far behind, especially when you consider both have two carries inside the five-yard line. Sanders is the one expected to have the biggest impact, which is why he's the most expensive, and his 73 air yards are considerably more than Howard's (eight) and Sproles' (minus-1), so there shouldn't be a surprise if he's the highest-owned Eagles back. You just have to wonder if this is a game where you actually need an Eagles running back, which obviously makes the idea of captaining/MVPing one of them a move for those willing to take big risks.
KICKERS
The 46.0-point total doesn't scream the need to roster Mason Crosby ($3,600 DK, $9,500 FD) or Jake Elliott ($3,400 DK, 8,500 FD), but that doesn't mean they aren't in play. Kickers will always be more plays based on their floors than upsides, especially with two offenses that are (usually) good at scoring touchdowns. Of the two, Elliott seems like the more reasonable because the Packers' offense is more likely to get in the end zone, though you have to question that line of thinking if they keep running as much as they have been against a defense that's really struggled against the pass.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
The Packers defense ($4,800) comes in with 12 sacks (the third-most in the league) while allowing the second-fewest points, and the Eagles ($3,200) have just two sacks while allowing the 10th-most points. One of the most troubling issues with relying on the Eagles defense is that Rodgers really doesn't throw that many interceptions, so the turnover potential is small. Meanwhile, Wentz follows in a similar mode, passing for 54 touchdowns while throwing just 14 interceptions in 24 games over the 2017 and 2018 seasons. However, the Packers have allowed just 5.0 yards per play this season, and they lead the league with eight takeaways, making them the preferred defense among the two. Captaining them on DraftKings feels like a move you'd decide on after watching last Thursday's game, but we have to remember these two teams are very different than what we saw last week.
