This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Kansas City Chiefs (-11.0) (-105) at Denver Broncos
The Chiefs are highly-motivated for this game, as they can secure no worse than the #2 seed with a win Saturday. Meanwhile, the Broncos have imploded the past few weeks (while Denver coach Vic Fangio has ostensibly been coaching for his job), scoring no more than 13 points in any of their last three games. Just looking at their two most recent games, the Broncos carried the ball 43 times for only 101 yards (2.35 YPC), which is inexcusable considering that their offense is built around the running game (and even less excusable coming off a game vs. the Chargers, who have one of the worst run defenses in the league). With the Broncos struggling to find any offense at all, it's difficult to see them staying within two scores of a motivated Chiefs team in the final week of the season, especially when the Chiefs have put up 30+ points in four straight games and show no signs of slowing down. The Broncos will also have several players missing this week due to injuries/Covid. A blowout seems likely.
Darrel Williams anytime touchdown (-125)
Over their last two games, the Broncos have allowed an astounding 75 rushing attempts, and a rushing touchdown in each game. With Clyde Edwards-Helaire out for the Chiefs, Darrel Williams should dominate backfield touches once again, as well as being a useful option through the air (and a prime option near the goal line). In what figures to be a relatively easy (and high-scoring) Chiefs win, I expect Darrel Williams to be highly active, and probably the most likely Chiefs player to score. Always be sure and shop around for the best price, as this prop is available at a coin-flip. Good chance he finds the end zone today.
Ezekiel Elliott anytime touchdown (+120)
Cowboys owner Jerry Jones has gone on record as saying the Dallas starters will play this week, but that won't include Tony Pollard, who will use Week 18 to rest his lingering foot injury. Even during normal times, Elliott clearly gets first call near the goal line, and is always a big threat to score. Regarding this particular matchup, the Eagles have allowed a rushing touchdown in each of their last four games, and have will little motivation in this game. They have already clinched the division, and have multiple players sitting out and/or unavailable for this game. With the Cowboys starters set to play most/all of the game, and Pollard unavailable, it seems likely that Zeke will find the end zone here.