This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Football series.
There will be no easy road to victory this Sunday. Neither for the teams nor for us constructing DFS lineups. Defense wins championships, it's said, and it is fair to assume we will see plenty of it this weekend. Each of the four teams rank among the top 10 in both pass and run defense. Cam Newton, Carson Palmer and Tom Brady combined for just 28 interceptions this season. Meanwhile, Peyton Manning threw the second-most interceptions (17) despite appearing in just nine regular-season games.
Targeting the Patriots offense should be the chalk route the masses will take. But as you will notice when building lineups, finding a team you are happy with that includes Patriots' key pieces is a dubious task. There are few RB, WR or TE less than $20 we are comfortable using in cash games, but I will identify our best options.
Remember, Head-to-Heads, 50/50s and Double Ups pay nearly half of entrants, your best bet to cashing is to target players with higher floors. Think heavily targeted No. 1 WRs, RBs who get the bulk of a team's carries and upper-echelon QBs in matchups with a tight Vegas point spread and a high total.
Tournaments/Guaranteed Prize Pools (GPPs) require a bit more of your inner contrarian -- target offensive players with higher ceilings in advantageous matchups. Huge point totals can come from the most unpredictable of places -- the most obvious plays are not always the corret ones. Let's dig in.
TOURNAMENTS (GPP - GUARANTEED PRIZE POOL)
Peyton Manning (DEN, $27)
Going back to the well, Manning is the contrarian play at QB for conference championship weekend. He threw for 222 yards without an end-zone strike last week, completing just 21 of 37 attempts. Manning did not attempt many deep shots -- the longest was a 34-yarder to Emmanuel Sanders -- but if the Broncos find themselves down early, Manning might have no choice but to chuck it. Manning is mainly worth considering because he should be the least popular option of the group and because his reduced price allows for greater roster flexibility despite the inherent risk.
David Johnson (ARI, $35)
Believe it or not, last week's most-owned player might be heavily under-owned this week as most of us will struggle to fit him into a well-balanced lineup. Johnson disappointed last week at 62 percent owned, totaling just 78 yards, catching four balls and scoring no touchdowns. The Panthers have done an incredible job at stopping the run this year but have allowed 11 touchdowns on the ground. Johnson could have some success with the screen game in the middle of the field similar to how the Buccaneers utilized Doug Martin for his seven receptions for 60 yards in Week 17. Johnson is immensely talented, and Bruce Arians is sure to keep him involved in this one.
Danny Amendola (NE, $16)
The strength of this play in tournaments hinges on whether Chris Harris suits up as Amendola likely will see some work out of the slot Sunday. Harris played with much pain against the Steelers last week and claims to be feeling "light years" better. Although it would be shocking to see Harris miss such an important matchup, he certainly won't be at full strength. Amendola had little impact in last week's game, catching just two of three targets for 18 yards. Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski should see the lion's share of targets, but if they are tied up, Amendola can handle any action sent his way. Don't forget about his monster performance in the playoffs last year where he caught two touchdown passes against the Ravens. He followed that up two games later, catching five balls and another touchdown against the Seahawks in the Super Bowl. Amendola is boom or bust but is worth exploring at a reasonable price.
CASH GAMES (H2H, 50/50s and DOUBLE UPS)
The following lineup comes in at $200 on the dot.
Quarterback
Tom Brady (NE, $33)
Selecting the right play here will be tough, but it's essentially a 33.3-percent shot if you choose to eliminate Peyton Manning right off the bat. Vintage Playoff Tom was effective last week, completing 28 of 42 passes for 302 yards and three touchdowns, including his QB sneak. The Broncos' secondary is a tough matchup and Chris Harris is not at full strength. Brady threw three touchdown passes against the Broncos in Week 12 and will be fired up for this one as he looks to exact revenge from that loss. The Cardinals-Panthers game boasts a higher projected point total with 48 points to this game's 44, but it shouldn't affect running out the playoff legend as your QB cash game play.
Running Back
C.J. Anderson (DEN, $22)
Anderson will find his way in a high percentage of lineups this week. It's not a spot worth overthinking as Anderson's price point allows us to fit some of the other studs in. Now healthy, Anderson has been the superior runner to teammate Ronnie Hillman. Hillman had 16 carries to Anderson's 15 last week, but Anderson was much more decisive with his, running for 72 yards and scoring in his third consecutive game. Anderson had his best game of the season against the Patriots in Week 12, collecting 29.3 fantasy points on 153 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns. Put him in and Gronk in and build around them.
Steven Jackson (NE, S$15)
Jackson is not a safe cash game play by any stretch of the imagination as he has not gained much traction in limited action as a Patriot. Although Brandon Bolden looks like he could be a sneaky option in this game, I still expect Jackson to see more carries than him this weekend. Don't expect much from SJax in the yardage department against a stout Broncos' run defense, though he certainly has a good shot to make up for last week with a couple goal-line carries and possibly a score. The touchdown will make or break this play.
Wide Receiver
Demaryius Thomas (DEN, $30)
Thomas could be under-owned this week as your competition may be concerned with Manning's mediocre play or look too deeply into Thomas' uninspiring output last week -- just 40 yards on four receptions. Thomas will also have to deal with shutdown corners Malcolm Butler and Logan Ryan no matter what side he lines up on, though he has the size advantage on both as his 6-foot-3 frame extends a four-inch advantage. With most of the field likely looking for a repeat performance from Larry Fitzgerald, it may pay off to pivot and go with Thomas this weekend.
Michael Floyd (ARI, $23)
Floyd had an incredible nine-game stretch from Weeks 6 through 15 where he either scored a touchdown or gained 100 yards in seven of those games. Although he was limited to just 26 yards on three receptions against the Packers last week, two were end-zone grabs. He likely will see some of shutdown corner Josh Norman but expect also to see him lined up with Robert McClain, who was signed off the street in mid-December after Charles Tillman was lost for the season.
Corey Brown (CAR, $12)
Brown certainly doesn't inspire confidence as a cash game WR3, but our options are limited if we want to build a well-balanced lineup. This is as good a spot as any to take your shot. Last week, Brown caught just two targets for 22 yards, but was targeted five times. Newton threw for just 161 yards as the ground game got off to a fast start with Jonathan Stewart's big play to open the game. Brown lined up on the right side for half of his snaps during the regular season and likely will see coverage from Justin Bethel. Bethel is a sold defender, but is the weak link of the secondary. Meanwhile, Patrick Peterson likely will tangle with speedster wideout Ted Ginn Jr. If you don't feel comfortable with Brown, pivot to his veteran teammate, Jerricho Cotchery, who slots in at the same price and has a higher floor.
Tight End
Rob Gronkowski (NE, $27)
The fact that Gronk is reasonably priced means nothing under the constraints of a salary cap and with essentially only two tight ends we can trust -- he and Greg Olsen. Gronkowski was supposed to be limited last week, but ended up posting his finest numbers since Week 1 of the regular season when he scored three times. The Broncos have had trouble against tight ends -- apparently the lone chink in their defensive armor. Gronkowski has had success against the Broncos in his career, scoring six times in six games since 2011 and putting up a 6-88-1 line against them in Week 12. Gronk will be popular, but is a must for cash games.
Flex
Greg Olsen (CAR, $27)
This cash lineup I'm building happens to fit under our $200 cap. A nice way to attack may be an under-the-radar play of pairing Gronk with Olsen. It means having to take a big risk with a Steven Jackson or Brandon Bolden as your RB2 and a near-minimum WR3, but it can work. Olsen is Newton's primary target, and he should be heavily utilized again Sunday.
Defense/Special Teams
Carolina Panthers ($11)
If you like this lineup, your option at this point is to either pair the Panthers defense with Thomas or the Broncos defense with Sanders. Each combo rounds in nicely at $200 on the nose. The Panthers led the NFL with 24 interceptions and caught another two last weekend. They are the cheapest option on the board, and Cardinals' quarterback Carson Palmer is certainly capable of making some mistakes under duress.
Sedler is a CDM Hall of Famer, winning the Football Super Challenge in 2013.
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