This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Football series.
Wild-card weekend projects to be low-scoring across the board with several strong defenses in the mix. With just four games on the slate, our margin for error increases and it behooves us to study each game intently to decide where the production will come from.
Remember, Head-to-Heads, 50/50s and Double Ups pay nearly half of entrants, your best bet to cashing is to target players with higher floors. Think heavily targeted No. 1 WRs, RBs who get the bulk of a team's carries and upper-echelon QBs in matchups with a tight Vegas point spread and a high total.
Tournaments/Guaranteed Prize Pools (GPPs) require a bit more of your inner contrarian -- target offensive players with higher ceilings in advantageous matchups. Huge point totals can come from the most unpredictable of places -- the most obvious plays are not always the corret ones. Let's dig in.
TOURNAMENTS (GPP - GUARANTEED PRIZE POOL)
AJ McCarron (CIN, $25)
McCarron will be lightly owned this weekend, but may be worth firing up against a Steelers team that has the lowest-ranked pass defense among playoff teams. The Steelers allowed 275 passing yards per game (third most) this season with 29 passing touchdowns. McCarron fared well against the Steelers in his first career start (22-for-32, 280 passing yards, 2 TD) though he did throw two interceptions. McCarron is building a decent rapport with wideout A.J. Green as the two have connected for three touchdown passes in McCarron's four starts. At 25 bucks, McCarron is worthy of our consideration for tournaments.
Spencer Ware (KC, $13)
Ware is a sneaky under-the-radar GPP option in a game that is expected to be a grindout affair with a 40-point projected point total. The Texans are no slouch against the run, but may be without linebacker Jadeveon Clowney this weekend. Most competitors wanting a piece of the running game will opt for Charcandrick West, but Ware is the better bet for goal-line carries and has been much more effective this season. Ware averaged 5.6 YPC on 72 carries compared to West's 4.0 on 160 carries. Ware had a nice conclusion to the season, out-touching West 16 to 13 and scoring a touchdown to go with 76 rushing yards. Keep Ware in the mix as a potential RB2 or your cap-saving flex play.
A.J. Green (CIN, $35)
Green may not see the ownership levels he deserves this weekend as your competition will be finding ways to fit two of Antonio Brown, Doug Baldwin and DeAndre Hopkins along with a top QB and Jordan Reed. Green's yardage totals in McCarron's four games have been light outside of a 66-yard bomb against the Steelers in Week 13. It is yet another factor that will keep Green's ownership percentage low and worth gambling on in the NFL $150k Baller this weekend.
Other Against-the-Grainers
QB: Kirk Cousins (WAS, $32)
RB: Marshawn Lynch (SEA, $28),Will Johnson (PIT, $10)
WR: DeSean Jackson (WAS, $21), Martavis Bryant (PIT, $25), Stefon Diggs (MIN, $17)
TE: Richard Rodgers (GB, $16)
DEF: Cincinnati Bengals ($11)
CASH GAMES (H2H, 50/50s and DOUBLE UPS)
Quarterback
Russell Wilson (SEA, $36)
Wilson and the Seahawks ramped up nicely the last few weeks of the season and should be a force to be reckoned with in the playoffs. A matchup with the Vikings away from CenturyLink Field may look tough on paper, but paper does not matter to Wilson in the playoffs. In Week 13 against the Vikings, Wilson accounted for four touchdowns (one rushing) and threw for 274 yards en route to 34 fantasy points. Ben Roethlisberger and Kirk Cousins will be popular options as cash game quarterbacks, but Wilson is easily the first player to roster in Yahoo lineups for wild-card weekend.
Running Back
Jeremy Hill (CIN, $28)
Hill was a disappointing early round draft pick for season-long leagues but stepped up his game over the second half of the season, running in seven touchdowns in his last eight games. He did not have much success running against the Steelers (22 total carries for 76 yards, no touchdowns in two games) but ran for 100 yards against them in Week 17 of 2014. He is the primary goal-line back and should receive a few opportunities there this weekend.
Eddie Lacy (GB, $21)
The Packers limped into the playoffs and many expect an early exit. Lacy does not have a touchdown in three career playoff games, but has averaged 85 yards on 20 carries. With a depleted offensive line and reeling pass offense, the Packers may run Lacy hard despite the rib injury he is dealing with. The Redskins are the lowest-ranked run defense of the eight wild-card teams, allowing 4.8 yards per carry.
Wide Receiver
Antonio Brown (PIT, $37)
Brown is the closest thing to an automatic play in cash games this weekend. Brown is the most consistent wideout in the NFL the last two seasons and has averaged 22.5 fantasy points over his last eight games. The Bengals have defended him well this year, holding him to 134 total yards in two games. Despite those struggles, fading Brown for the first weekend of the playoffs is risky business. With DeAngelo Williams questionable, the reliance on Roethlisberger and Brown will be all the heavier. Brown is the most expensive player on the board this week, and for good reason.
James Jones (GB, $22)
Jones has become Aaron Rodgers' primary passing target the latter part of the season and has averaged 12 targets per game the final two weeks. The veteran receiver has a knack for finding the end zone, scoring 14 touchdowns for the Packers in 2012 and scoring another eight times this season. It may feel odd to consider Randall Cobb as the contrarian play in this passing game, but that is the unpredictable nature of the pro football. Jones will primarily line up against RCB Quinton Dunbar, who grades as the worst of the Redskins cornerbacks per Pro Football Focus. Jones is affordably priced and makes for a good cash game target for us this weekend.
Tyler Lockett (SEA, $14)
Lockett had a solid rookie year, gaining Wilson's trust as the season went on. He was incredibly effective, catching 51 of his 69 targets for 664 yards and saw seven targets in every game between Weeks 13 and 16. Doug Baldwin is clearly the primary red-zone target, but Lockett could easily out-produce him this weekend -- especially since he is capable of busting a punt return touchdown. Playing Lockett with the Seahawks defense is the ultimate "double-dip" where you would receive twice the points should Lockett break one.
Tight End
Jordan Reed (WAS, $25)
Reed finished the season as the league's most consistent tight end -- and his price this week clearly reflects it. Quarterback Kirk Cousins was locked in on Reed for most of the season. Reed ended the year with 11 touchdowns, catching 87 of 114 targets for 952 yards. The yardage total was second among all tight ends behind Rob Gronkowski, as were the touchdowns -- second behind Tyler Eifert's 13. In a sea of dicey options at the position this weekend, it may be best to lock Reed in as your tight end and worry about differentiating elsewhere.
Defense/Special Teams
Seattle Seahawks ($14)
The Seahawks likely will be the chalk play of wild-card weekend as they are $2 cheaper than the Kansas City Chiefs and face the team with the lowest projected point total of the weekend -- the Vikings are expected to score just 18 points. The Seahawks play better defense at home, but have a true punt return threat in Tyler Lockett and may have Kam Chancellor back. Sometimes the most obvious play is the correct one.
Honorable Mentions
QB: Ben Roethlisberger (PIT, $34)
RB: Adrian Peterson (MIN, $34), Alfred Morris (WAS, $16)
WR: DeAndre Hopkins (HOU, $36), Doug Baldwin (SEA, $32), Markus Wheaton (PIT, $11)
TE: Kyle Rudolph (MIN, $12)
DEF: Kansas City Chiefs ($16)
