This article is part of our Golf Picks series.
Memorial Tournament Betting Preview
Golfers have arrived in Ohio for this week's Memorial Tournament, an event founded and hosted by Jack Nicklaus at Muirfield Village Golf Club -- a track he designed.
The Memorial is one of only seven regular season events with a prize pool over $10 million, and the latest edition features a stacked field that includes seven of the top 10 players in the Official World Golf Ranking. It will be headlined by tournament favorite Jon Rahm, who checks in with 8-1 odds. Last year, Patrick Cantlay -- at 22-1, and after Rahm was forced to withdraw following a positive COVID-19 test -- defeated Collin Morikawa on the first playoff hole for his fourth PGA Tour victory and second Memorial win.
Muirfield Village has been the host venue since the tournament's inception in 1976. It also hosted the 2020 Workday Championship the week before the Memorial, albeit with an easier setup. The traditional par-72 layout checks in at approximately 7,400 yards and plays relatively difficult, with the winner usually finishing somewhere in the range of 10-to-15 under par. Iron and play around the greens are generally key factors, and the champion ranked first or second in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green in each of the last three tournaments held here. With penalizing misses off the tee, accuracy tends to be much more important than distance with the driver, and the tough setup will favor players who avoid bogeys.
All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 6:00 PM ET Tuesday.
Muirfield Mavens
The following five golfers, with a minimum of three appearances, have the lowest scoring average at Muirfield Village since 2018.
- Jon Rahm: 68.9
- Patrick Cantlay: 69.4
- Adam Scott: 69.8
- Collin Morikawa: 70.0
- Patrick Reed: 70.8
It's no surprise to see Rahm's name atop this list, as he likely would be the back-to-back defending champion if not for last year's unfortunate turn of events. He has dominated this event with stellar iron play, gaining over two shots per round on approach at the Memorial over his last seven rounds. This should be a great spot for him to right the ship in the short game, and he's clearly the player to beat this week. Another player who has excelled with his irons at Muirfield Village is Scott, who led the field in SG: Approach in his runner-up performance in 2019. He has made the cut in seven straight appearances in this event but doesn't enter in the best form, with his only top-10 this year coming at Riviera -- another place he has played well at. A return to a familiar spot makes him a viable option at 50-1 to win.
Tee-to-Green Tacticians
These five players, on a per-round basis, gained the most strokes from tee to green over their last 20 rounds.
- Jordan Spieth: 2.64
- Cameron Young: 2.22
- Rory McIlroy: 1.83
- Chris Kirk: 1.82
- Mito Pereira: 1.81
Spieth has turned the corner in a big way since missing the cut at The Masters, notching three top-10s -- including a win in Hilton Head -- in four starts. He has done that despite some poor play on the greens, as he is gaining a huge edge on the field from tee to green. Spieth will need to start rolling it better to contend consistently, and he's a bit risky at only 22-1 given how inconsistent he has been with his driver. Coming off six straight top-30 finishes and back-to-back top-10 results is Pereira, who will be making his appearance here. There's not much reason to think he won't be a good fit for Muirfield Village, considering he's long and accurate off the tee and is ninth in SG: Approach this season. The oddsmakers are offering value on him, as he falls outside the top 15 choices on the board.
Memorial Tournament Bets: Outright Picks
Shane Lowry (20-1)
Considering how well Lowry has played this year, it's surprising that he has not won an event since the 2019 Open Championship. He has been knocking on the door, finishing T3 or better three times since the end of February, but he's still slightly under the radar. Coming off a T6 here last year, this should be a good opportunity for Lowry to end his winless drought.
Corey Conners (60-1)
Conners looks like one of the best values on the board, as the oddsmakers have soured on him after a missed cut at the PGA Championship. He's one of the few guys in the field with Ohio ties, having played collegiately in the state. It certainly doesn't hurt that he has shown up consistently since the start of March.
Matt Kuchar (75-1)
There's a lot to like about Kuchar, the 2013 champion of this event who has four top-5 finishes at Muirfield Village. He notably struggled through much of 2020 and 2021, falling outside the top 100 in the OWGR at one point. However, he has since regained his form, notching three top-10s this year, including a pair of top-3 finishes over the last two months.
Memorial Tournament Bets: Top-10 Wagers
Seamus Power (5-1)
We've seen Power's name near the top of the leaderboard recently, as he carded four rounds in the 60s at the AT&T Byron Nelson and followed that up with his first career top-10 in a major championship. He doesn't do anything poorly and is accurate off-the-tee, which should lead to success in his first trip to Muirfield Village.
Alex Noren (6-1)
Noren is starting to play the golf we saw out of him when he first came out on Tour five years ago with a pair of top-10s this year and three top-20s over his last five starts. He narrowly missed out on a top-10 finish here last year, and he's gaining shots in all four strokes-gained categories this season.
Russell Knox (12-1)
Knox's game fits the course in many ways as he's 11th in driving accuracy, 26th in bogey avoidance and 24th in strokes-gained approach this season, so it's no wonder he's made his last six cuts at the Memorial. He's coming off a solid T15 at Colonial last week, his third top-15 result this year.
Memorial Tournament Bets: Head-to-Head Matchups
Chris Kirk (-120) over Jason Day
A matchup between two players going in opposite directions with Day falling outside of the top-100 in the OWGR while Kirk has had a resurgence with five top-15 finishes in his last nine starts. He's also shown good form at the Memorial with a best finish of T4. Day is a tough pick in matchups with three missed cuts in his last six starts and only one top-10 this season.
K.H. Lee (-115) over Keith Mitchell
Mitchell was playing well earlier this season but has struggled since the conclusion of the Florida swing, and he doesn't have a good track record at Muirfield Village, making 2-of-4 cuts with a best finish of T22. Lee on the other hand has made all three of his cuts here and is also coming in with better form.
