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RSM Classic Betting Preview
The 2022-23 PGA Tour season concludes with The RSM Classic in Saint Simons Island, Georgia.
Golfers will rotate between the Seaside and Plantation Course at Sea Island Golf Club, with those making the cut playing the final two rounds at the Seaside track. Ludvig Aberg, the favorite at 12-1 odds, headlines a field that is much better than what we saw in recent weeks and includes eight players who find themselves top-50 in the Official World Golf Ranking.
All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 11:30 AM ET Wednesday.
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Par-70, 7,005 yards (Seaside), Par-72, 7,160 yards (Plantation)
Average Strokes Gained Rankings: The RSM Classic Winners Since 2018
- SG: Off-the-Tee: 29.2
- SG: Approach: 14.6
- SG: Around-the-Green: 26.0
- SG: Putting: 10.8
- SG: Tee-to-Green: 12.6
- Driving Distance: 37.6
- Driving Accuracy: 27.6
We're finally back to a venue with ShotLink data, although it's important to note that the numbers above only include numbers from the Seaside Course. Both tracks average under 70 strokes, but golfers will need to take advantage of their lone round on the Plantation Course, where they will see two extra par-5s. Neither track is particularly long, with the Seaside Course having just two par-4s over 450 yards. Water comes into play on a handful of holes and marshy areas surround many fairways, so there will be much more of a premium on accuracy over distance off the tee, and players will often opt for woods or long irons with their tee shots. In addition to accurate drivers, I'll be targeting good iron players -- especially those who excel from 125-175 yards, with a lot of approach shots coming in that range.
Sensational at Sea Island
These five golfers, with a minimum of eight rounds played, have the lowest scoring average at The RSM Classic over the last five years.
Simpson has shown a fondness for Sea Island, posting five top-10 finishes before finally missing the cut for the first time in 11 appearances last year. The veteran has failed to play the weekend a lot more frequently this year, with him missing the cut nine times in 18 chances this season. A T5 this summer at the Wyndham Championship -- another tournament he has had ample success in -- at least provides some reason to believe. Another player who has fared well here is Todd, who held the 54-hole lead in 2019 before ultimately finishing solo fourth. After struggling through a good portion of the year, he recorded three top-10s over his last seven events and finished a respectable T20 last week. That's not bad for a 35-1 choice.
Dialed in on Approach
The following players gained the most strokes on approach over their last 20 rounds.
With iron play being a statistic to hone in on this week, Poston stands out, as he has gained gained strokes on approach in seven consecutive tournaments. That's led to four top-10s during that stretch. If that's not enough, Poston is a Sea Island native who will feel at home at a place where he posted a pair of top-25s over the last four years. Also coming into this event in good form is Moore, and he could use another good week considering he's just outside the bubble at 128th in the FedExCup Fall Standings. Despite a lackluster season, Moore has found his form this fall, notching two top-15s and a season-best T5 in Bermuda last week.
The RSM Classic Bets: Outright Picks
Corey Conners (25-1)
Conners is making his only start of the fall, so it's unclear what shape his game is in right now. However, he has finished no worse than T37 in four appearances here and was second in SG: Approach in 2020 en route to a top-10 finish. He's one of the best ball strikers in the field, too.
Eric Cole (28-1)
Only Henley gained more strokes per round over his last 50 rounds than Cole, yet Cole is only tied for the sixth option on the betting board. He has been sharp this fall, finishing fourth or better in three of his four appearances.
Justin Suh (45-1)
Suh is one of the best putters on Tour -- he ranks ninth this season -- and has posted back-to-back top-10s for the first time in his career. He should make for a nice course fit, as his biggest weakness is his play around the greens, which isn't much of a factor here because players hit greens in regulation at a high rate.
The RSM Classic Bets: Top-10 Wagers
Adam Schenk (6-1)
I hit a top-10 bet with Moore last week and will begin this edition with Schenk, who remains someone the oddsmakers tend to overlook. He has recorded seven top-10 finishes since March -- all of which came against better fields.
Matti Schmid (7-1)
I'm riding the hot hand in Schmid, who finished solo third last week and also notched a runner-up on the DP World Tour less than a month ago. The 25-year-old has established himself as a quality ball striker in his rookie season, gaining strokes off the tee and on approach while ranking seventh in driving distance.
Kevin Kisner (12-1)
There's no way to sugarcoat it -- it has been a year to forget for Kisner. Nonetheless, if there's a place where he can get back on track, this is it. He finished top-5 at Sea Island in four of his last nine appearances and picked up a win here in 2015. He is worth the risk with odds like this.
The RSM Classic Bets: Head-to-Head Matchups
Smalley had a strong showing here last year, finishing fifth despite ranking bottom-10 in the field in SG: Putting. Pendrith has had a great fall but isn't a great target in one-on-one matchups due to his inconsistency. He is more sporadic off the tee than Smalley, and that could get him into trouble.
Kirk has a great track record in the event, winning in 2013 and totaling six top-20s. That's not much of a surprise considering his only weakness is a lack of driving distance, which isn't much of a deterrent here. Horschel, on the other hand, missed the cut the last time he played here in 2019 and hasn't taken the course in over a month.