2023 The Memorial Tournament Betting: Picks, Odds, Predictions and Best Bets

2023 The Memorial Tournament Betting: Picks, Odds, Predictions and Best Bets

This article is part of our Golf Picks series.

The Memorial Tournament Betting Preview

Following an exciting playoff finish at Colonial that saw Emiliano Grillo take home his first PGA Tour victory in eight years, players heads north to Ohio for the annual Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village Golf Club. 

Jack Nicklaus serves as tournament host at the course that he designed. This event is one of five tournaments with invitational status and a smaller field of 120 golfers. World No. 1 and tournament favorite Scottie Scheffler -- listed at 6-1 odds -- headlines a field that includes seven of the top 10 players in the Official World Golf Ranking.

Last year, Billy Horschel -- at 60-1 -- captured his seventh Tour victory by four shots over Aaron Wise.

All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 9:00 PM ET Tuesday.

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Course Characteristics

Par 72, 7,571 yards

Average Strokes Gained Rankings: Memorial Winners Over Last Five Years

  • SG: Off-the-Tee: 10.8
  • SG: Approach: 11.4
  • SG: Around-the-Green: 9.0
  • SG: Putting: 15.0
  • SG: Tee-to-Green: 3.2
  • Driving Distance: 18.6
  • Driving Accuracy: 36.0

There's certainly no faking it around Muirfield Village, as players are going to need all facets of their game to contend here. SG: Tee-to-Green stands out as the key statistic to hone in on as the winner has led the field in the category three consecutive years. With thick rough and firm greens, playing out of the fairway off-the-tee will be important especially considering water is in play on 12 holes. The winning score typically ranges between 13-to-15 under par, and with greens being tough to hit in regulation, around-the-green play is a bigger factor than normal. The course has also been stretched to play long at over 7,500 yards with three 200+ yard par-3s and seven par-4s at least 455 yards. 

Marvelous at Muirfield

The following players, with a minimum of eight rounds played, have the lowest scoring average at Muirfield Village since 2018.

It shouldn't be a surprise to see someone with an all-around game like Rahm at the top of this list. He would likely be a two-time winner here if COVID-19 did not force him to withdraw with a six-shot lead after three rounds in 2021. A four-time winner this year, Rahm is coming off a disappointing T50 at the PGA Championship, but this is a great bounceback spot as the second favorite at 7-1 odds. Another player on this list who has shown well at Muirfield Village is Scott, who checks in at 45-1 odds and owns four top-5 results over 13 appearances. The 42-year-old is still one of the longer hitters on Tour, ranking 10th in driving distance and 19th in SG: Off-the-Tee, and recorded a top-10 in two of his last three starts.

Taking the Proper Path

These five golfers, on a per-round basis, gained the most strokes from tee to green over their last 20 rounds.

Scheffler's recent dominance cannot be understated -- he's gaining nearly 1.5 strokes more from tee to green than any other player each round! Unfortunately for Scheffler, the putter has lagged behind, as he lost 4.6 strokes on the greens at Colonial and only gained strokes putting once over his last four tournaments. He's coming off a third-place finish here last year and will be difficult to beat with a good on the putting surface. Slightly down the board we find Hatton, who continues to play well against elite fields with five top-10s in 11 starts this year -- four of which were recorded in designated events. He has made only one start here -- which resulted in a T33 in 2019 -- but he's gaining strokes in every category this season and is top-20 in SG: Off-the-Tee, Approach and Putting.

The Memorial Tournament Bets: Outright Picks

Patrick Cantlay (10-1)

Cantlay has been as dominant as it comes at Muirfield Village, winning in 2019 and 2021 and posting four top-5 results over six appearances. Although he has not won this season, he's been close, notching five top-5 finishes. He also checks in second in SG: Off-the-Tee.

Jason Day (25-1)

Day picked up his first win in over four years a few weeks ago, so who's to say he can't win again shortly thereafter? He has the home-field advantage this week, as the Ohio resident lives nearby. He also finished fourth here in 2020. Day is 11th in SG: Tee-to-Green this season and every aspect of his game is in great form.

Rickie Fowler (35-1)

Fowler has a pair of runner-up finishes at Jack's Place, and this seems to be a course he contends on when he's in form, which is certainly the case following a T6 at Colonial last week. Iron play will be a big factor this week, and Fowler ranks ninth in SG: Approach this season.

The Memorial Tournament Bets: Top-10 Wagers

Matt Kuchar (6-1)

Kuchar's history at Muirfield Village is impressive, as the 2013 winner has seven top-10s over 16 starts. That alone makes this price seem generous, especially when you consider he's posted three top-10s over 11 appearances in 2023.

Denny McCarthy (17-2)

McCarthy's lack of distance off the tee might dissuade some bettors, but he has played well in the bigger events and posted a top-10 at the very long Quail Hollow. He's coming off a top-5 finish here a year ago, making this a great value play.

Kevin Streelman (12-1)

With zero top-25s from last November through April, Streelman seemed to have lost his game, but he finished T18 at the designated Wells Fargo Championship and a T9 at Colonial. He also has a good track record here, with a T13 in 2021 and a solo fourth in 2019.

The Memorial Tournament Bets: Head-to-Head Matchups

Hideki Matsuyama (-115) over Sam Burns

Coming off a 2-0 week, I'll try to maintain the momentum with Matsuyama, who is a slight favorite over Burns. Matsuyama's history at this venue is much better than his counterpart's: a win and three top-10s through eight starts compared to a best finish of T50 for Burns over three appearances. Matsuyama is also a better target for matchups, having not missed a cut in nearly three months while Burns missed two of his last three.

Wyndham Clark (+100) over Si Woo Kim

I'm surprised to see Clark as the underdog in this matchup, as I view him as the better golfer of the two. Clark has been on quite the tear recently, with four top-10s over a six-event stretch before missing the cut in his last start at Oak Hill. Kim, on the other hand, posted just one top-25 over his last 10 individual stroke play events.

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Ryan Pohle
Ryan Pohle is a DFS Product Specialist at RotoWire and has written for the site since 2020.
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