2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting: Picks, Odds, Predictions and Best Bets

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Published on March 5, 2025

Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Preview

The golf action kicks up a notch this week as the PGA Tour heads to Orlando, Florida, for the annual Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Club and Lodge. The fourth signature event of the year precedes next week's flagship event at TPC Sawgrass and features a 72-player field that will have a 36-hole cut down to the top-50 players plus tied and also any players within 10 shots of the lead. Scottie Scheffler headlines as the tournament favorite at 3-1, while Xander Schauffele (16-1) will make his return following a two-month layoff due to a rib injury. Last year, Scheffler (6.5-1) defeated Wyndham Clark by five strokes for his second API title.

All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 12:00 PM ET Wednesday

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Course Overview

Par 72, 7,466 yards

These are the average rankings of the event champions since 2020:

SG: Off-the-Tee: 23.0
SG: Approach: 8.0
SG: Around-the-Green: 20.8
SG: Putting: 12.0
SG: Tee-to-Green: 6.0
Driving Distance: 22.6
Driving Accuracy: 32.4

Golf fans that like difficult tests certainly enjoy Bay Hill as the winner has been in the single digits in three of the last five years and outside of the par-5s, only three other holes played under-par last year. It's an interesting strategy course off the tee as there are several dogleg holes that the longer hitters can risk cutting off some distance but bring in shorter landing areas and players certainly want to stay out of the thick and penal rough. We can see from the stats above that iron play is a key factor and we'll see a lot of approach shots from 200+ yards including all of the par-3s. In theme with most Florida courses, Bay Hill has water throughout the course and it will come into play on half the holes, so I'll be eyeing players that rank well in bogey avoidance. Firm greens as well - did I mention scoring is going to be tough? Players won't be able to fake it around here and will need every club in their bag.

Bay Hill's Best

The following players have the lowest scoring average at Bay Hill over the last five years.

The scoring averages certainly reflect how difficult it is to score here, with defending champion Scheffler being the only player with an average under 71. The World No. 1 has done it with his all-around play, ranking first and second in SG: Tee-to-green at the event the last two years. After a slow start to the year by his standards, he finished T3 in his most recent start at Torrey Pines. One of the players on the list looking to receive the red cardigan sweater come Sunday evening is English, who was narrowly edged out by Kurt Kitayama by a single stroke in 2023. On the bright side, the veteran ended a multi-year winless drought earlier this year and ranks eighth in putting this season. He'd be a longshot winner at 120-1 odds but is worth keeping an eye on for placement bets and DFS contests.

Approach Artists

These five golfers, on a per-round basis, gained the most strokes on approach over their last 20 rounds.

Thomas' stretch of gaining strokes on approach extended to 11 tournaments at the Genesis, where he led the field in the category in finishing T9. It's his third top-10 result over his last four starts, and he's coming off a solid T12 here last year. Having last won in 2022, it feels like the drought can't last much longer. Thomas is tied for the sixth choice on the board at 25-1 odds. A bit farther down the betting board we find Straka (55-1), where something will have to give between his current form and track record at Bay Hill in which he has a best result of T57 in five appearances. He ranks 11th in SG: Total and approach this year and is coming off a T11 in Palm Beach Gardens last week. His ball-striking prowess makes me think he can flip the script this time around.

Arnold Palmer Invitational Bets: Outright Picks

Collin Morikawa (20-1)

Sure, Morikawa has missed the cut here the last two years, but he also led the field in ball-striking by a wide margin at the event in 2020 and there's no reason to think his game doesn't fit Bay Hill well. He already has a runner-up this year and his iron play is in great form.

Shane Lowry (45-1)

Lowry is coming off a solo third place finish here last year and only Scheffler gained more strokes from tee to green. He tends to play some of his best golf in the Sunshine State and also has a second place finish in a signature event this year.

Tom Kim (60-1)

Kim has gained strokes with his ball striking in 10 consecutive tournaments which has helped lead to four top 10s and a pair of runner-up finishes. This is simply too much value to pass up for the three-time PGA Tour winner.

Arnold Palmer Invitational Bets: Placement Wagers

Nick Taylor
Top-10 Finish: 13-2

I'm not sure there's a player in the field playing better than his typical level of play lately than Taylor. On top of winning the Sony Open early in the year, he's posted T12 and T9 finishes since. We can also see from the list above that his iron play is as good as it has ever been.

Andrew Novak
Top-10 Finish: 15-2

Novak will be making his first appearance at Bay Hill, and I think bettors can target him safely despite that considering he lacks a weakness in his game. He's 42nd in strokes gained total this year, has two top-15s in signature events already and was third at the Farmers in January.

Akshay Bhatia
Top-5 Finish: 10-1

Bhatia is also making his tournament debut but it's easy to have confidence in him with his all-around game while coming off back-to-back top 10 finishes. Albeit early in the season, he ranks in the top 25 in SG: Total, putting and driving accuracy.

Arnold Palmer Invitational Bets: Head-to-Head Matchups

Maverick McNealy (-110) over Robert MacIntyre

McNealy is one of those guys that lacks a great track record here, but I'm going to overlook it considering that he's playing better golf than ever before. He ranks in the top-20 in SG: Approach and putting which led to a runner-up finish in his last signature event. Meanwhile, MacIntyre has had an inconsistent start to the year and has gone MC-T40 in the last two elevated tournaments.

Daniel Berger (+100) over Keegan Bradley

There aren't many players in the field hotter than Berger, and he should be able to continue that trend in his home state. The Floridian has followed up his shared runner-up in Phoenix with a 12th place finish in a signature event and was in contention for awhile at PGA National. He has the advantage over Bradley when it comes to the short game and driving accuracy, making him a nice target at even money.

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