2025 Farmers Insurance Open Betting: Picks, Odds, Predictions and Best Bets

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Published on January 21, 2025

Farmers Insurance Open Betting Preview

Get your bets in early for the only Wednesday start of the year as this week the PGA Tour heads to San Diego for the annual Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines. The 156-player field has a standard 36-hole cut with players rotating between the North and South courses over the first two rounds with those making the cut playing the weekend entirely on the South Course. Ludvig Aberg headlines as the tournament favorite at 9-1 odds amongst a field that consists of five of the top-20 players in the OWGR. Last year, rookie Matthieu Pavon (150-1) won at longshot odds over Nicolai Hojgaard by one stroke for his first Tour victory.

All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 3:00 PM ET Tuesday

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Course Overview

North Course: Par 72, 7,258 yards

South Course: Par 72, 7,765 yards

These are the average rankings of the tournament winners over the last five years.

SG: Off-the-Tee: 33.0
SG: Approach: 10.4
SG: Around-the-Green: 31.8
SG: Putting: 6.6
SG: Tee-to-Green: 8.8
Driving Distance: 39.4
Driving Accuracy: 33.6

The South Course at Torrey Pines is well-known as a U.S. Open venue that saw Jon Rahm win in 2021, and it's a behemoth at nearly 7,800 yards. Only the four par-5s played under-par last year and with a winning score typically around 13-to-15 under, players will need to take advantage of those holes as well as the much shorter and easier North Course. Since three of the rounds are played on the South Course and the North Course doesn't track strokes gained data, I'll focus on the South Course. Off the tee, players are faced with difficult to hit fairways that average less than 30 yards wide and are surrounded by lengthy rough. It's not the most exciting venue as golfers are faced with a lot of similar and long holes. They are forced to hit driver and will have a lot of long irons into greens. I'll look to target those with a combination of length and accuracy off the tee, those that approach it well from 200+ yards and golfers that avoid bogeys.

Torrey Titans

These players have the lowest scoring average at the event since 2020 (minimum two appearances).

Zalatoris has a solid track record in San Diego with three top-15 finishes since 2021, most notably losing in a playoff to Luke List three years ago. He nearly ended a 17-tournament drought without a top-10 in Palm Springs last week (T12), but he does have three top-15s across his last five events so the game is rounding into form. The oddsmakers are giving him plenty of respect considering he's tied for the fourth betting choice at 22-1 odds. Another player with his share of success at the venue is Day, a two-time champion who most recently won in 2018 and has posted top-10s in two of his last three starts. Day (25-1 odds) was third in SG: Tee-to-Green en route to a T3 result at The American Express last week and looks to be a safe bet to get into contention once again.

Iron Play Specialists

These five golfers, on a per-round basis, gained the most strokes on approach over their last 20 rounds.

With the last three winners of the event ranking fourth or better in SG: Approach, that's a key stat around here and Matsuyama tops the list having started the year off with a bang in Hawaii by winning The Sentry and followed it up with a solid T16 at the Sony Open. His iron play continues to be a big reason for his success, and he's not sneaking up on anyone anymore like he did when he won at Riviera nearly a year ago at longshot odds, as he comes in as the second choice at 11-1. Meanwhile, the only player to make both lists is Finau, who will likely be a popular choice for one and done contests with his six top-10s at the Farmers since 2017. He's gained strokes on approach in 12 consecutive tournaments, although his putting has been a bit more inconsistent than in the past.

Farmers Insurance Open Bets: Outright Picks

Keegan Bradley (22-1)

Bradley might be 38 years old, but that's not stopping him from playing some of the best golf of his career. He started the year with finishes of T16 and T6 in two Hawaii starts and looks capable of picking up a win in a fourth straight year. Oh, and he was runner-up to Max Homa here in 2023.

Max Greyserman (25-1)

Greyserman may have missed the cut here last year, but he also wasn't entering the week with five top-10s across his last eight starts like he is now. There aren't many golfers that have boosted their stock more in the last year. His length and putting should be a good combination for success.

Luke Clanton (45-1)

Clanton has showed a high ceiling in his nine starts on Tour as an amateur with two shared runner-ups and four total top-10s. The long-hitter will have a nice advantage at the lengthy Torrey Pines South Course.

Farmers Insurance Open Bets: Top-10 Wagers

Stephan Jaeger (5-1)

Jaeger's length and strong all-around game makes him a good fit at these venues, so it's no wonder that he finished just two shots back last year. He had a solid fall and enters with confidence off a T3 finish in Hawaii two weeks ago.

Victor Perez (8-1)

Perez had some solid results last summer, finishing third at the Canadian Open, T12 at the Memorial and later narrowly missed medaling at the Olympics. He's a good long iron player and putter, and he posted four rounds in the 60s last week.

Adam Svensson (10-1)

Svensson's statistics indicate that's he's better than his odds: 40th in SG: Tee-to-Green, 32nd in approach and 31st in driving accuracy last season. His putting is an obvious weakness, but he did post top-15s in the only two tournaments in which he gained over a stroke putting per round last year.

Farmers Insurance Open Bets: To Miss the Cut

Ludvig Aberg (+350)

It can be risky to fade the favorite, but that's what I'm doing this week. Aberg doesn't play many full-field events with a cut anymore, but he's missed two of his last five in that scenario. He's certainly an excellent ball striker but has lost strokes with his short game in six of his last eight tournaments.

Si Woo Kim (+180)

Kim is a fade for me as he's missed the cut in two of his last six appearances here and never posted a top-10. His distance and putting numbers are below average which I don't love around here. Kim has also been mediocre to start the year - bottom half of the field at The Sentry, MC at Waialae and T51 at the AMEX.

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