Betting on Golf: THE PLAYERS Championship

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Updated on March 8, 2022 6:48PM EST

THE PLAYERS Championship Betting Preview

The first premier event on the PGA Tour calendar is upon as, as golfers will head to TPC Sawgrass to compete in golf's "fifth major" -- THE PLAYERS Championship.

144 players will head to the Tour's headquarters in Ponte Vedra Beach just outside of Jacksonville. The field will be headlined by co-favorites Jon Rahm and Justin Thomas, who both check in at 10-1 odds. Last year, Thomas -- at 20-1 -- surged over the weekend to defeat Lee Westwood by one stroke and record his 14th victory on Tour.

TPC Sawgrass is widely considered as one of the fairest tests in golf, as both longer and shorter hitters are more than capable of winning here. This can be a difficult place to find consistent success at, with no defending champion finishing better than fifth in his title defense. A traditional par-72 at just under 7,200 yards, length is not paramount at Sawgrass, but accuracy off the tee is a must, as players will be penalized with tough shots when don't find the fairway or the green.

With the winner of this event finishing top-10 in both Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and Approach each of the last two times it was played, I will be targeting elite ball strikers as well as players that excel from 125-175 yards. Many approach shots will be struck in that range.

All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 5:30 PM ET Tuesday.

Sawgrass Savants

The following five golfers, with a minimum of three appearances, have the lowest scoring average at TPC Sawgrass since 2016.

Just like last week, even the best players at this course fail to regularly shoot in the 60s, and scoring won't be all that easy this week, with rain expected Thursday and Friday and cool/windy conditions anticipated over the weekend. 2018 champion Simpson tops the list after running away with the trophy that year. Simpson won by four while leading the field in SG: Putting and finishing third in SG: Around-the-Green. His win was sandwiched by a par of T16s, so he knows how climb the leaderboard here. However, questions remain, as Simpson has teed it up only once this year and withdrew from the Phoenix Open for an unspecified reason. Another golfer looking to right the ship is Johnson, who is still in search of his first top-5 since his Masters victory in 2020. Johnson, whose 35-1 odds are much higher than they usually are, led the field in SG: Approach en route to a T5 finish at Sawgrass in 2019.

Locked in From Long Range

These five players, on a per-round basis, gained the most strokes off the tee and on approach combined over their last 20 rounds.

The defending champion, Thomas, finds himself on both lists, but it should be noted that co-favorite Rahm is gaining more than a shot on him in the long game, illustrating just how dominant the world No. 1 has been. Thomas is off to a hot start this season, finishing top-20 in all six events he has played. Further down the board we find Jacksonville resident Knox, a golfer you probably would not expect to find on this list. The two-time winner on Tour has played well in 2022, making 5-of-6 cuts and notching a top-10. He ranks seventh this season in SG: Approach. Knox has been held back by his short game, but if he can find his form in that area, his local knowledge and combination of driving accuracy and iron play makes for a good low-cost option in daily fantasy sports contests.

Outright Picks

Collin Morikawa (16-1)

Although the sample size is small, Morikawa is leading the Tour in SG: Total and is coming off a T2 against a stacked field at Riviera. He constantly finds himself in a position to win, and with his elite ball striking he's sure to find himself near the top of the leaderboard if he putts well. Morikawa finished T41last year in his debut despite losing strokes around the green and with his flat stick.

Daniel Berger (30-1)

Berger let me down a couple of weeks ago when I picked him to win The Honda Classic, where he was unable to hang onto a five-shot lead in the final round. I'm going to stick with him, though, as he's had a week to shake that off. Berger continues to be underpriced, and he is just the 10th choice on the board despite being in his home state. Since a T9 finish in this event last year, Berger has reeled off eight top-10s in 18 starts.

Talor Gooch (65-1)

It's difficult to pass up Gooch at these odds. He's coming off a T7 finish last week in which he shared the lead after 54 holes, and he's evolved into a top-25 player with a win and seven top-15s in 13 starts. He fared well here last year, ranking fourth in SG: Approach en route to a T5 result.

Top-10 Wagers

Corey Conners (6-1)

It's time to jump back on the Conners bandwagon after he led the field in SG: Tee-to-Green last week at Bay Hill. Only a poor putting week prevented him from landing a spot among the top 10 finishers. Conners has played well in his two PLAYERS attempts, finishing seventh last year and ranking 10th in SG: Tee-to-Green in 2019.

Tony Finau (7-1)

I know Finau hasn't had great results this year, but this number stood out considering it wasn't all that long ago he was listed around 20-1 or 30-1 to win. A major factor in Finau's struggles this year has been his play on the greens, as he ranks outside the top 200 in SG: Putting, an area he has typically been reliable in. Finau has been approaching it well, making him a good candidate to right the ship at Sawgrass.

Seamus Power (10-1)

When the field is stacked, you can find a quality golfer or several with some inviting odds, and that's certainly the case here. Power has been a machine when it comes to top-10 finishes, recording eight of them over his last 21 starts. He has missed the cut in three straight appearances, but that has inflated his odds, and I'm ready to pounce. Power finished T35 in his lone appearance in this event three years ago.

Head-to-Head Picks

Brooks Koepka (+100) over Russell Henley

It seems disrespectful to see a four-time major champion check in as an underdog against a golfer who does not even have that many wins on Tour. It's not like Koepka is a bad fit for this course or isn't playing well, as he has made the cut in all four trips to Sawgrass and finished T16 at The Honda Classic. Oh, and Henley failed to play the weekend each of the last three times he teed it up here.

Xander Schauffele (-120) over Adam Scott

I can't argue with Scott's track record at Sawgrass, but Schauffele himself has a T2 finish in this event, and he notched back-to-back top-15 finishes during the West Coast Swing. I can't help but be a bit worried about Scott, who who this event in 2004 but is playing a much busier schedule than usual and has been wild off the tee.