DraftKings PGA DFS Picks: Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches Cash and GPP Strategy

This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.

COGNIZANT CLASSIC IN THE PALM BEACHES

Purse: $9.2M
Winner's Share: $1.656M
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, Fla.
Course: PGA National (Champion)
Yardage: 7,167
Par: 71
2024 champion: Austin Eckroat

Tournament Preview

Last week's Mexico Open and this week's Cognizant Classic reside in a dead zone on the PGA Tour schedule, sandwiched between signature events. But one of them is a lot deader than the other, and it's not the Cognizant.

A pretty decent field was published late Friday afternoon, but then the Cognizant got a whole lot more alive (un-dead?) with the surprise late entry of none other than Jordan Spieth. The one-time Golden Boy of golf instantly became the marquee name in the 144-man field as he tries to make it all the way back from last year's wrist surgery. Further adding to the sheer surprise, this will be the first time Spieth has ever played in this tournament, even going to back to the Honda days. (Spieth's entry bumped unsuspecting Karl Vilips to first alternate, but he got back in on Monday.

The Florida Swing begins with a far better field than the West Coast Swing ended, with five players in the top-25 in the world rankings and 16 in the top-50 settling into PGA National. There are no top-10s here, no Rory McIlroy as there was last year, but Spieth is probably the next best thing.

Remember, Spieth is not one of those top-25s or even a top-50. He's at No. 70 OWGR. Russell Henley, Sepp Straka and Sungjae Im -- three former champions here -- are the top-25s, along Shane Lowry and Billy Horschel. Others of note include Daniel Berger and 2017 Honda winner Rickie Fowler and defending champion Austin Eckroat. Rounding out the biggest names are Brian Harman, Cameron Young and omnipresent sponsor invite Luke Clanton, who once again hopes to take the final step to PGA Tour membership so he doesn't have to keep cutting class at Florida State to play golf.

Lastly, we should give shout-out to last week's out-of-nowhere winner, Brian Campbell, who now begins the rest of his life as a PGA Tour champion.

This tournament has traditionally led off the four-week Florida Swing, and it also used to annually have a tremendous field. The Cognizant-nee-Honda had an OWGR strength-of-field rating in the mid-400s in 2015, but five years later it had plummeted into the mid-200s. The drip-drip-drip of good players exiting eventually became too much for Honda and the automaker bowed out two years ago.

To be clear, the field is far from great. Close to half of the 144 golfers are ranked outside the top-150 in the world. After all, two more signature events are on the docket in the next three weeks, the Arnold Palmer Invitational and THE PLAYERS Championship.

If nothing else, fans can enjoy the carnage that PGA National administers on an annual basis with water on 15 holes. Over the past two decades, nearly 5,000 golf balls have gotten wet, an average of almost 250 per year. No stretch is more confounding for the golfers than the famed Bear Trap.

https://x.com/the_cognizant/status/1894134261143220393
 

It is one of the cute little nicknames that courses like to give themselves for their tough stretches. Here, it's Nos. 15 through 17, two par-3s sandwiching a par-4. On each of them, there is water on every full-length shot, and the trepidation is real. After that the golfers can exhale, as the 18th is a relative cakewalk, a par-5 at only 556 yards. Last year, Nos. 15 and 17 were the two hardest holes on the course and the Bear Trap collectively played at about 180 over par. There were 51 double bogeys and 13 triples or worse on those three holes alone.

PGA National is way more than just three holes, however. It surely is no splendor in the grass. It's normally been one of the toughest tracks the golfers will play.

Still, things have been easier the past two years. Eckroat won at 17-under and two years ago the winning score was 14-under. In many years, the winner is in single digits.

Last year, the beastly 508-yard par-10th was converted into a third par-5, and a short one at that, at 530 yards, and that surely helped scoring.

But the course could stiffen this year.

They beefed up that par-5 10th by 20 yards to 550. And the fairways and approach areas, which were widened a little bit by one total acre last year, have now been narrowed by a collective four acres, according to the official Golf Course Superintendents' fact sheet.

The 1981 Tom and George Fazio design hasn't changed a lot through the years. There's still water, water everywhere, wind normally exceeding 15 mph and strategically placed bunkers, though there are only 60 total on the course. We see a lot of birdie-fests on Tour; this week is all about bogey avoidance. Actually, it's about double- or triple-bogey avoidance. There were a whopping 186 double bogeys or worse last year.

The greens are large at an average of 7,000 square feet, though most of the golfers are just happy to be done with the poa and paspalum of the West Coast and be back on their beloved bermudagrass.

As for the weather, tt looks like a good scoring week for often-stingy PGA National. High temperatures will be in the upper 70s all week with little if any chance of rain and winds moderate to even light. As always in Florida, we'll believe the wind is light when we see it. 

Key Stats to Winning at PGA National

The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.

• Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee/Driving Accuracy/Ball Striking
• Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green/SG: Approach/Greens in Regulation
• Strokes Gained: Around the Green/Scrambling
• Bogey Avoidance/Bogey Average

Past Champions

2024 – Austin Eckroat
2023 – Chris Kirk
2022 – Sepp Straka
2021 – Matt Jones
2020 – Sungjae Im
2019 – Keith Mitchell
2018 – Justin Thomas
2017 – Rickie Fowler
2016 - Adam Scott
2015 – Padraig Harrington

Champion's Profile

This week is different from many weeks when we want to identify the guys who make the most birdies. We have to forget that this week. Because at PGA National, it's all about minimizing mistakes -- not eliminating them, because they simply cannot be avoided there.

In five of the past six years, the winner didn't have a double bogey on his card.

We're not looking for any cowboys this week. Make par and be happy. Some guys are better suited for that type of golf. Boring golf pays dividends this week. Hit the ball in the fairway, get it on the green, take your par or an occasional birdie and head to the next tee. Now you may be asking: "Really? Last year, Eckroat won at 17-under and the year before two guys got to 14-under, that doesn't seem *that* penal.

But Eckroat, Kirk and 2024 playoff loser Eric Cole putted very well, and that doesn't happen every year.

Eckroat didn't drive the ball, and that's not needed to succeed at PGA National. But he was third in fairways hit to rank fourth i SG: Off-the-Tee. He was also first in greens in regulation, fifth in SG: Approach and second in SG: Putting. That's about the only way to get to 17-under on this track, and Eckroat won by three strokes.

While putting has not always correlated to winning, a really good way to avoid a big number is to sink a 10-foot putt for par, or bogey.

Golfodds.com posted the over/under on the winning score at 268.5 -- 15.5 under par.

DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS

Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap

$10,000 and up

Russell Henley - $10,700 (Winning odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook: +2500)
There are two golfers in the $10,000s and we like them both. Henley is the top guy on the DK board, but interestingly not the top guy at the Sportsbook. His win here came more than a decade ago in 2014, but in limited play since then he has a top-5, a top-10 and a top-20. Henley already has two top-10s this season -- at the Sony and Pebble -- but the question the past number of years has been: Can he close the deal and win a tournament? Since 2022, the answer has ben "No," but if there's anywhere Henley can change that to a "Yes," it's here.

Shane Lowry - $10,500 (+2000)
The burly Irishman who excels in rainy/cold conditions back home also loves him some Florida. Lowry has finished top-5 here the past three years and thus will be supremely chalky in all betting formats. On top of that, he already has one great finish this season, as runner-up at Pebble Beach. Lowry has a balanced game, ranked top-70 on Tour.in every strokes-gained category so far this season.

$9,000-$9,900

Daniel Berger - $9,900 (+2500)
Berger will be a very popular play because of his history here (three top-5s before injuries derailed him a few years back), because he's playing well (T2, T12, T21 so far in 2025), because he's got the stats (ranked fourth in SG: Off-the-Tee and 14th in bogey avoidance) and because he just seems popular.

Keith Mitchell - $9,100 (+4000)
This course aligns perfectly for Mitchell's strong tee-to-green game -- he's ranked fifth on Tour. He's even putting better than usual, ranked in the upper half on Tour. He's got a great track record here, with twin T9s in his past two visits following a victory in 2019.

$8,000-$8,900

Jordan Spieth - $8,600 (+4500)
Spieth is not the safest play this week. We don't fully know where his game stands just yet, and he's also prone to weird Spieth happenings on the course. But there's not a lot we feel comfortable with in the $8,000s and besides, Spieth is ranked an impressive 33rd in bogey avoidance so far this year. On the other hand, he's played only 10 rounds all season. But there were four good ones in Phoenix, where he tied for fourth.

Andrew Novak - $8,000 (+5000)
The emerging Novak tied for ninth here a year ago, and now is a far better player than he was 12 months ago. He's finished solo third and T13 in the two go-rounds at Torrey Pines this year, plus was T13 at Pebble. He's also already missed three cuts, which isn't optimum. But as we said, the $8000s are not great this week.

$7,000-$7,900

Billy Horschel - $7,900 (+5000)
Horschel is one of the five top-25 golfers in the field but obviously is not among the top five -- or even 10 or 15 -- in DK pricing. He tied for ninth here a year ago and for 16th three years ago. Horschel has not had the best start to 2025, and he didn't last year, either, like a lot of guys before they return to their comfort zone of Florida. Still, he's ranked 32nd in SG: Approach and is top-50 in bogey avoidance.

J.J. Spaun - $7,800 (+4500)
Spaun tied for third at the Sony and for 15th at the Farmers -- the two courses so far this season with the narrowest fairways. A good reason why is he's ranked sixth on Tour in SG: Approach and a stout 37th in bogey avoidance. This will be his first visit to PGA National since 2022, when he tied for 30th.

Lucas Glover - $7,800 (+6000)
Glover has made six of his past seven cuts at PGA National, with a top-5 and three other top-25s. He was T35 last year. This year, besides his usual ball-striking and bogey-avoiding acumen, he currently is a top-50 putter. Glover is also ranked 26th in bogey avoidance. He tied for 21st at the Sony and for third at Pebble Beach.

Lee Hodges - $7,400 (+7000)
Hodges quietly has two top-10s already in 2025 -- at the Sony and the Farmers. He hasn't missed a cut in five starts. Hodges has a good blend of distance and accuracy off the tee, and he's also ranked top-10 on Tour in SG: Putting. He missed the cut here last year but was 14th the year before and ninth in 2022.

Sam Ryder - $7,100 (+11000)
Ryder has always been an excellent ball striker limited by his lack of distance. Unsurprisingly, he's played well here through the years, with a T21 last year and two prior top-10s. Ryder has made all five of his cuts this season, with his two top-25s coming on the narrow fairways of Waialae and Torrey Pines. Ryder is ranked top-30 on Tour in both SG: Approach and Putting, and 14th in bogey avoidance.

$6,000-$6,900

Andrew Putnam - $6,900 (+15000)
Putnam is a woefully short hitter who does lots of other stuff well. Which makes him a good consideration this week. He's made four of five cuts, with a T30 at the Sony and T32 at the Farmers -- both tracks with narrow fairways (and Torrey Pines is super long, too, making Putnam's finish look even better). He's ranked 16th on Tour in SG: Approach and 22nd in bogey avoidance, no small feat for a such a short hitter. He hasn't played PGA National since 2018.

Vincent Norrman - $6,400 (+25000)
It was not easy finding even one player $6,500 or under, as we do every week. After dismissing Norrman and continuing to look around -- to no avail -- we pivoted back to the 27-year-old Swede. He's made the cut in all five of his starts, albeit without a top-25. He's got a decent game off the tee and from the fairway but that thing called "the green" gives him trouble. He's ranked 147th in SG: Around-the-Green and 169th in SG: Putting. You can see why he makes cuts but can't get a high finish.

Combing the board for Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches? Preview the best Sportsbook Promo Codes!